Spring To Winter To Spring

Good Thursday, everyone. Our wild temperature ride is just getting started as a surge of spring has engulfed the bluegrass state. This will soon be replaced by a huge drop in temps tonight and then another huge spike in temps late in the weekend and early next week.

All of this will give us the potential for thunderstorms, freezing rain, heavy rain… Then more thunderstorms. Normal? Who the heck wants to be normal, anyway? πŸ™‚

Temps today are deeeeep into the 60s and may flirt with 70 in the south. Winds are going to absolutely crank and can reach 40-45mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms then sweep in here along and ahead of a cold front…

Temps will then crash from northwest to southeast this evening and will drop more than 30 degrees. Check out the numbers by Friday morning…

NAM

Areas that are below freezing can see a touch of freezing rain early Friday. The best chance for that will be across the north and the far west.

That boundary will then hang around through Saturday with a better than 20 degree spread in temps from north to south. The best chance for freezing rain continues to be across the north, but odds favor significant icing staying north and west of Kentucky.

That said, the Canadian continues to show some hefty ice totals in the north…

Canadian

A quick look at the new European Model finds it showing a similar swath of ice in the north.

Temps then surge from south to north later this weekend into Monday, and should hit the 60s once again. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will then return, with a bigger system moving in here right after that. Check this out…

GFS Gif 6

That’s a lot of rain showing up on the GFS through the middle of next week…

GFS Rain

After we get through this Spring to Winter to Spring setup, we find the return of real winter…

GFS

I will have updates coming your way later today, so check back. Make it a great day and take care.


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33 Responses to Spring To Winter To Spring

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Does anybody fly kites anymore?

    • LOUsnoluvr says:

      Glad the ice will stay north of us. Ground saturated and with these winds, seeing trees that have come down along the road driving in and out of our neighborhood .

    • Bjenks says:

      Need two hands to fly a kite. Kids or adults for that matter can’t put their phones down long enough for that.

    • Mike says:

      Mine got blown away…

    • bgbecky says:

      My kids love to fly kites! We have a field behind our house that gets used for kite flying when it isn’t a muddy mess! And we just got underground electric, and lost the power line across our back yard…one of the first things we said is, “now we can fly a kite in the backyard” πŸ™‚

  2. Christopher says:

    The wind was howling last night. This weather makes me ready to go ahead and skip winter. Sounds like that won’t be the case though. My money is on a decent February snowstorm.

  3. TennMark says:

    Storm Spotter training sessions are starting to pop up in anticipation of the 2017 spring tornado season. For example, NWS Paducah has a couple of c-l-a-s-s-e-s scheduled (both online and traditional), the first starting January 23. These sessions are subject to rescheduling pending any severe or winter weather.

    http://www.weather.gov/pah/spottertraining

    NWS Jackson (KY) and NWS Morristown (TN) among others also have sessions scheduled. Keep checking the website of your NWS office for more details.

    – – – – – – – – – – – –

    On this date in history was a rare January outbreak of strong tornadoes in our area. One of only two January twisters in Kentucky to reach F4/EF4 strength.
    http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=17151#comment-174614

    • TennMark says:

      Stupid auto-mod! “C-l-a-s-s” is not an obscene word……

      Another upcoming SKYWARN Spotter c-l-a-s-s in Pineville KY via NWS Jackson on Feb 9.
      http://www.weather.gov/jkl/spotter

      As much as dual-pol radar has improved the tracking of tornadoes, trained storm spotters are still invaluable in collecting additional “ground truth” when tornadoes occur thus saving lives.

  4. fbm tim says:

    Chris has a nice swath of ice for my area here in ohio,but i dont think it will happen no other outlets are making much noise

    • Jessica says:

      NWS Wilmington has ice in the forecast for Saturday morning and has issued a hazardous weather outlook for freezing rain. Hopefully that will change, I remember the ice storm of 2002 all too well still.

  5. Lucy says:

    Rain at least through mid-week next week!!!! At least ten days of rain now and how many more to come? What really amazes me is the wind. We don’t live in OK, but it sounds like it with constant wind.

    • Mike S says:

      Try vacationing in Glasgow MT, which has one of the highest average wind speeds in the U.S. Last month on the 6th, average wind speed was 24.2 mph with gusts of just over 40 mph. The temperature range for the day was 6 and -1. Average wind chill for the day about -20. Ouch.

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    High winds, 60 degrees, buckets of rain. Mid-January?! Ugh. Rodger in Dodger

    • Terry says:

      The three dreaded W’s of winter: WARM, WET and WINDY!

      In my opinion, the three W’s of winter are worse than summer’s three H’s: HAZY, HOT and HUMID–at least we expect this in summer:/

  7. BubbaG says:

    CB, your outlook is panning out, so stay frosty and watch out for Lucy’s football πŸ˜‰ She will probably tempt you a few more times.

    • Bjenks says:

      Oh yes she will! My thoughts are we will see more from ROLO when CB starts talking about the potential for an old skool thumping. Winter isn’t over by no means.

      • TennMark says:

        Both Nashville and Memphis have had their biggest single storm snow totals (21 and 18 inches respectively, both cities hit the same day) in March! Not necessarily saying that this March will be really snowy, but March can be crazy. Me experiencing as a kid the March 1993 “Superstorm” in east Tennessee is forever imprinted in my mind.

    • Matthew says:

      He has definitely been on this BubbaG. If February can somehow work milder like Bailey initial though (that was way back) then he would be spot on. This ice storm, even not hitting here, would be his bold prediction as it only takes a little movement to change where one of those hit.

      The only thing I think he would be off on is that normal to slightly above normal snow. And really, it was supposed to be more smaller ones in December with some lake effect stuff in through January. Snow is nice but I can take or leave a bunch of 1-2 inchers.

      Hopefully this thing is saving up for 1. Would love to see my area hit the bottom of that map from the forecast of 18 inches. We have 3 total so far. If we can get one weekender of 8+ that would be nice. Maybe a big Thursday evening thing into Friday. One day school missed. Nice snow fun on the weekend. But enough melting for school Monday. That would be a win for my young one and a win for my wife who does not want to miss any school this year. She strongly dislikes the breaks in teaching days.

    • Mike S says:

      I think I’ll nominate CB when it becomes time as ‘the most interesting man in the world’, and we can coin the expression ‘stay frosty mis amigos’. I’ll drink to that.

  8. retro fetch says:

    ” Stay Frosty ” one of the best songs from the last Van Halen album!

    I’m enjoying this shot o’ spring but I am looking forward to ” the return of real winter”.

  9. Ruth says:

    Not to belittle the ice chances—but when can we expect the next snowstorm? πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  10. Jimbo says:

    After our current wave wave ends late next week. We will probably get 2 or 3 days of dry cold before the another warm waves blows in.

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