Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the heavy rains moving in and the heavy rains on the way later this weekend. Oh, and the winter weather likely to follow later next week.
Rain continues to develop from southwest to northeast and will become heavy at times. The models continue to point toward a general 1″-2″ of rain across the central part of the state…
A few spots can exceed the 2″ mark. With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, local flooding issues may develop. That’s something to keep a very close eye on. Watches are overrated.
Here’s regional radar to track the increase in the action…
The weekend system will throw some scattered stuff in here on Saturday as temps spike into the 60s.
The exact track of the big storm is still in question for Sunday and Monday, but the NAM shows this system rolling right across Kentucky…
That’s a very impressive system with heavy rain, high winds and some thunder. Here’s what that run of the NAM is spitting out for rainfall just for rainfall on Sunday through 7pm…
Obviously, if the NAM is correct, we are going to have some flooding issues Sunday and Monday. The GFS continues to be just a bit farther south with the heaviest rains in Tennessee. Given this looks like a winter system, I wonder if the GFS is treating it like one and showing it farther south than it actually will be?
After all this, here comes winter for the second part of next week. The first system arrives from the northwest with some light snow possible…
Additional systems then dive in here on the GFS…
Here’s a true clipper showing up…
And then a super clipper after that…
Back loaded winter ahead.
I will update things later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.
Thanks Chris. I’ve got my waders out for work! Wow! Can you just imagine what it would look like if all this rain was snow?! Talk about a beat down. Ah well , back loaded winter. Maybe there’s a good snow in there for us yet! Enjoy the afternoon everyone and stay dry!
Alberta Clippers can be deceptive there very capable of putting down 1-3 inch snows. Sometimes if your lucky depending on track and location 2-4 inch snows.
Yep. Also not the ice chance like southern feds 🙂
Maybe we can get an April 1987 snow….
That was a goodun!
But we need it now! LOL
I remember that one , day started out in the 40’s and temps fell we had ten inches on the ground by dark. If this the same one you talking about.
Had over 2 feet on the ground when we left for our senior trip…
Now that would be a good time!
Northwest flow snows have been very weak the last few years. Most have only produced a few festive flakes. I am not very optimistic about these systems. I hope I am wrong.
You’re not very optimistic about anything jimbo lol
tired of the rain bring on winter
Thelma Lou was wondering which horse to take for the weekend rain…gfs or nam? Clipper mania is o.k. but most of the time the bigger snows sets up to our north & east here in the Lake Cumberland Area.
SUPER CLIPPER!
Model outlook accuracy: Hillbilly stats
Snow (southern fed) = 10%
Snow clippers = 40%
Rain = 90% accurate
Ice = 110%
Here’s to hoping Old Man Winter wakes up at the end of next week, and gets the ol YAWN meter off 10. Getting bed sores haha
Thanks Mr Bailey for restoring some of Rodger’s faith in the winter season! Always need to keep in mind that the weather can change on a dime in the midwest. Two weeks from now we could all be watching it snow and it be 25 degrees! RODGER HOPES SO! Rodger in Dodger
Just my opinion, winter of 2015/2016 was not a back loaded winter in the purest sense as January was the breadwinner for snow totals. Yes, some of us did have 3-5″ snowstorm totals in February, but that’s really not that unusual compared to other years more worthy. Also, temperatures were above normal during Feb/Mar. If back loaded winter refers to events, January still outranked Feb/Mar. Bowling Green came close but they had snow in abundance for January and February.
Feb of 2015 We had -10 lows in Knox county and the 1st week of March we had snow and sleet on the ground and the river was flooded for several days.Central KY got hammered with snow the 1st week of March as well.
True. That was winter of 2014/2015, the gold standard of back loaded winter in my opinion.
I am starting to like the spring weather, tired of the rain. In addition it seems each post speaks of winter is coming….next week…then the second part of next week…anybody else think it keeps getting pushed back? I don’t doubt winter will be loaded for the backend of the season, just wandering if anyone sees it the same way I have been reading it.