Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on where this pattern is going this weekend into next week. The short story is… Winter is coming.
The NAM continues to look like the leader with the weekend storm system as all the modelling is trending that direction. That ups the ante for some heavy rains, and we are also now seeing my fear of a few flakes trying to mix in on Monday.
Here’s the NAM…
That would produce scattered thunderstorms going up on Saturday with the potential for heavy rain and storms into Sunday. There’s even the chance for strong storms in the southwester part of the state. Notice the pockets of blue showing up from time to time across the region by Monday? It’s close.
The rainfall map from this run of the NAM…
As expected, the GFS is now much farther north with this system…
Here’s the rainfall map from the GFS…
The GFS does show some pockets of wet snow by late Monday, especially in the south and southeast…
I’ve been saying this storm would signal the return of winter and, sure enough, that’s exactly what the forecast models are showing. We get a strong cold front to push through on Wednesday, opening the gates for snow producers to dive in from the northwest starting by the end of the week.
Given that flow, we can go into a prolonged period of some snow…
We typically do well in the type of northwesterly flow setting up late next week into the following week.
I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Clipper action! Nice scenic snow, rather than the hard to shovel heavy stuff. Win!
Bubba. I enjoy Reading your comments, but com’on man..pay somebody $20 to shovel your driveway if it snows alot. Sit back and enjoy when we get a big snow.
This
True, but my positive spin for no big snow 🙂
Yeah but any systems out of the southwest to follow?
Something around the first week of February the models keep showing a decent snow system on and off but it’s so far out can’t put any faith. Signal is there
At this point, I will take the NW flow as it does favor my area in SE KY…Harlan usually doesn’t do as well as other parts of East KY, but we still get more than most of the state in this set-up; definitely not the best set-up for west KY though.
Clipper party..Would much rather see a big snowfall instead of these drive by shooters..Annoying to say the least..
We got a clipper once with lots of rap around about 8 years 9 years ago. Total was about 6 to 8 inches.
Northwest flow snows in my part of the world, Huntington WV area. Are no shows, usually nothing more than festive flakes. But I guess beggars can’t be choosers this year.
I live in greenup and we do pretty well with the northwest flow…crazy what a few miles can do jimbo
Wondering where much of our cold air may be?
Fairbanks, Alaska had a low of minus 51 Fahrenheit! 😉
In case you are wondering, their average low this time of year is “only” about 15 below. 😛
Could imagine the destruction down in our world if got that cold, even for one day?…it would literally destroy about everyone’s pipes and most of our vegetation (trees) to boot!
An uncle of mine was stationed in Fairbanks for a time during the 1980s while in the Air Force. He said that it was kind of amazing how quickly one adapted….. suppose you have to with extreme life or death cold. After a period of 40 below temperatures, 20 above would virtually make you break out in short sleeves. Although my uncle didn’t start his family until later, it was kind of second nature for families to have extra things like mittens. Far better for your child to come home with different or even mismatched mittens than to have exposed skin become frostbite in almost literally seconds.
My wife’s cousin is currently stationed in Fairbanks and loves the cold; she grew up in Florida and always hated the hot weather! She has been there since the year before last (fall), so I can imagine she has acclimated!
Thanks Chris. You have done went and started it now. You have us snow lovers foaming at the mouth with the mere mention of the white stuff. I am just enjoying the different comments people are making but I have to tell you, when I read people trying to outdo the master of weather prediction in these parts (aka Chris Bailey) I have to shake my head. Some people will never learn…;) Have a great Friday afternoon and enjoy this brief bout of sunshine, brought to you by Mother Nature.
Glad to see there’s a little drama building up end of next week. With the models CB has provided us so far, I dont see anything past a inch or two and then quick melt. But, I do feel the ol YAWN meter will inch below 10 at some point next weekend. Maybe
Clippers can be out friend. Snow beckons snow so a few clippers could line us up for a nice storm out of the south. Winter is far from over in terms of the weather we may be in for over the next month and a half.
Our*
I hope so, at least for snow. I did plant an experimental palm tree, however. I have a Chinese Windmill Palm in Harlan of all places! So far, I have only had it covered up about 8 days…it is still completely green with no leaf burn! The coldest two nights so far here have been 7 and 10 degrees with about 6 other nights in the teens. The palm is suppose to be hardy down to 5 degrees without protection but only after it several years old…so if it is not going to snow, I will root for this winter to stay mild.