Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Thursday, everyone. We are rolling into a steamy and stormy pattern taking shape in the coming days. This setup can bring some heavy rains our way for part of the upcoming weekend. It’s all part of a very active weather pattern that continues to take shape.

In addition to the short-term pattern, I’m firing up the seasonal models to take us all the way through next winter.

Let’s start with the next few days before getting too far ahead of ourselves. Highs today will be back into the 80s with high humidity levels helping spawn a storm or two.

The thunderstorm risk will increase Friday into Saturday and some of the storms may be strong. With so much moisture in the air, watch for heavy downpours…

Deep tropical moisture then gets drawn into the region ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Local severe storms are possible, but the torrential rain threat is something we need to watch…

Dry and cool weather then moves in for Monday, but the dry part isn’t going to last long as this active pattern rolls on. Watch this big dip in the jet stream and how long it lingers…

That leads to additional systems bringing showers and storms to our region…

As of now, that’s not a good look as we roll into our Memorial Day weekend.

Let’s take a look way down the weather road and see what one of the seasonal models has to say. The JAMSTEC model has had a pretty decent track record in recent years, so I wanted to see how it was looking for the rest of the year.

It has a warm look for June-August…

You can see a small area of normal temps from the Midwest into the northern Ohio Valley, but’s that’s a pretty warm signal.

That warm signal then begins to really cool by the fall. Take a look at the September-November temps…

What about the winter ahead? A very cold signal is showing up on the model for December-February…

The progression of the seasons above is typical of an emerging weak El Nino, which looks likely to develop this year.

As mentioned, the JAMSTEC has been on a “hot” streak and correctly nailed this past winters warmth. Here’s the forecast issued from last May…

Not too bad.

Have a great day and take care.


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7 Responses to Looking Down The Weather Road

  1. Vikki Reel says:

    I’m not looking ahead. Let me enjoy the summer. Bring on the heat!!!!

    • TennMark says:

      I can take the heat/humidity better than the cold, so I also will absorb the sun and warmth this summer while it lasts. Indeed, some of my work colleagues and I have been enjoying our lunch break outdoors as of late.

      On the other hand, the wife is the opposite as she loves the summer AC and will perk up at the chance of a snowy winter. The husband (little ole me)…… well, I still enjoy tracking winter storms but give me the Cayman Islands in January 😛 . Anyway, thanks CB!

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, The next few days look to be miserable weather wise. I plan to stay in, and wait for the cooler weather next week. Thanks, for the research on ENSO. This has always fascinated me, because I have experience many of them. In the late 1970’s, ( 1976-1977 to 1977-1978)
    we had a weak El Nino. The Fall and Winter these years displayed a very cool fall followed by an extremely cold winter with much snow in the entire Midwest. In 1982-83 we had a record strong El Nino which produce a very warm, stormy Fall and Winter. Have a great day everyone.

  3. I was a teenager when we had those harsh winter’s back in the late 70’s. No winter have match that since then . Maybe were due for one

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I hope the big Memirial Day weekend doesn’t get rained out. We usually take my husbands elderly mother to visit the cemetery and place flowers. Likewise, we visit my parents graves too. In the short term, as long as the storms/rains are if a scattered nature for the next couple of days it would seem we could get yard work and a little bit of flower gardening done, so that’s good too! Have a great Thursday (Friday Eve) everyone!

  5. Virgil says:

    I am looking forward to the heat of summer. I am also looking forward to the next WKYT WX Watchers meet up….When ever that happens to be (Hint Hint Chris)

  6. Mike S says:

    JAMSTEC…I believe every model has certain strengths, but every model has obvious flaws. Yes, the May 2016 initialization may have nailed it, but the December 1 initialization for the winter of 2016/17(which one would think would be the most accurate) suddenly showed a widespread area of cooler than normal readings for much of the Midwest and Plains, which obviously did not pan out.
    It will be interesting to see how much fluctuation will exist from each month’s run till we get to the winter coming up. I mean one of those months is bound to get it right, right?
    http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html
    Use Surf Air Temp Anomaly as Parameter
    December 2016 for Start Date
    Dec-Feb for Target Season

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