Tracking A Big Fall Front and Watching Irma

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our fall weather pattern continues to settle in much earlier than normal across our part of the world. Another big fall front is crashing across the state today, ushering in another round of very cool temps. As all this happens, we are keeping a close eye on powerful Hurricane Irma.

Showers and storms will be common across the state early today, but should become more isolated this afternoon and evening. Winds will be very gusty, with some heavy downpours likely in the storms…


Behind this front comes a HUGE trough digging in across the eastern half of the country. The air with this is so cold that lake effect rain showers will be likely and some of those drop into Kentucky…

That would be a nice flow to see in the winter months! As is, it’s only the first week of September, so we have to settle for some rain showers, gusty winds and highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows should drop into the 40s and may flirt with a record or two if overnight skies clear.

Our weekend looks really good with sunshine and temps in the low and middle 70s.

Hurricane Irma continues to churn west toward the Caribbean and is likely to impact the United States this weekend. The track on Irma keeps shifting farther south…

cone graphic

The latest GFS continues to target Florida, then slowly works our way…

Here’s the rain map with that run…

The new Canadian takes Irma into the eastern Gulf with a landfall around the Florida Peninsula, and still gets rain into Kentucky…

The latest GFS Ensembles from Tropical Tidbits show the various tracks from each member…

They also give us a look a the different hurricane model tracks (spaghetti plots)…

There is still a long way to go with Irma, but the Florida/eastern Gulf idea is gaining a tremendous amount of steam.

Make it a great day and take care.


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12 Responses to Tracking A Big Fall Front and Watching Irma

  1. Virgil says:

    Almost a Cat 5 storm… I hope people are not buying into the fake news forecasts regarding this storm…And no, this is not doomsday!

  2. Schroeder., says:

    Thanks Chris, I’am going to restrain myself till Hurricane Irma becomes history. Those, of you who want to follow Hurricane Irma’s path, may click on the links I posted yesterday. The links are updated three times during the day.

  3. Mike S says:

    During this latest model run, I noticed a rare gesture of the Euro bowing to the GFS’s original thinking about Irma while GFS nudges its trek slightly east and more progressive by the time Irma reaches our region.

  4. LD says:

    If that strikes Miami straight on…oh boy. Ugh.

    I know it’s supposed to take that hard right turn but seeing it pointing toward the same area that Harvey hit is very unsettling.

    The only “fake news” I’ve seen recently was a certain morning show on a certain news channel telling people to disregard all the other stations and weather news outlets and that Harvey wasn’t going to be a huge deal. Not surprisingly, that story was later deleted from their website and they act like it never happened as I’m sure lots of people who watch that station took them at their word and didn’t evacuate when the notices came.

    Maybe if we get enough Facebook prayer-likes we can turn it back out into the Atlantic?! Come on guys and gals, we can do this!!

  5. Cold Rain says:

    Cat 5 now..What a beast.

    • TennMark says:

      Winds now at 185mph. Scary.

      In comparison, Harvey produced a 132 mph gust at Rockport TX. In 1992, a gust of 169 occurred within Hurricane Andrew in Florida just before that anemometer was destroyed.

      231 mph was once recorded on top of Mt Washington NH although so-called fluid dynamics between and over the terrain seems to be a big factor in the winds there. Little wonder that the Mt Washington observatory has solid walls several feet thick 😉 .

  6. Ashlyn says:

    I am almost afraid to see how bad Puerto Rico will get it, they will probably see worse than the US landfall location will. Up to 185MPH now, isn’t that close to the record?

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