Thoughts On The Road Ahead

Good Friday, folks. While we enjoy a period of toasty temps to start fall, I wanted to look a little deeper down the weather road. From a big change coming next week, to the upcoming fall and winter months, this update has you covered.

You guys ready? ๐Ÿ™‚

Today features more of the same with temps in the muggy 80s and the chance for a stray shower or storm…

This pattern persists through the weekend into the first few days of next week. During this time, Hurricane Maria continues to barrelย across the Caribbean, but the storm continues to look like a miss for the east coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

A big time fall cold front arrives in here by later Wednesday and Thursday. This front will have a band of showers and storms along and ahead of it, and a big push of chilly air behind hit. The recent trend on the models is for a system to swing through the base of our trough, spawning low pressure and some chilly rains around here…

If that system is real, it may take away the frost threat, but keep those temps very chilly during the days…

I actually prefer the secondary system developing, because they can often be a precursor to the early winter pattern.

Speaking of winter. I’ve already been hard at work compiling data for the winter forecast that comes out in November. I’m toying with the idea of putting out a preliminary forecast in early October. What do you guys think of that? The more responses, the better the chance I do it. ๐Ÿ˜‰

While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.

The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January…


That model would make for a very fun winter around here!

The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December…

I promised you some winter talk and I delivered. Now, if you guys want that preliminary winter forecast in early October… You had better leave some comments telling me you do. ๐Ÿ™‚ I have a magic number of comments in my head. If we get there, you will get that prelim winter outlook in a few weeks.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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187 Responses to Thoughts On The Road Ahead

  1. Snowbi One Kenobi says:

    The earlier the winter forecast, the better!!!

  2. Adrian says:

    Never commented before but I read your blog nightly before bed…let’s see that early winter forecast!

  3. Joe DeRosa says:

    Regarding the October preview, I give it a resounding YES!! I would especially like to hear Korea about your analog years and some info on external influences, like sea surface temperatures!

  4. corey says:

    Yes yes yes!!!

  5. Maegan says:

    Yes, please! Fingers crossed for a cold, snowy winter!

  6. Todd Powers says:

    Realizing that the earlier the forecast, the less accurate. But a peak into the near future isn’t a bad thing if you realize that it may not be the gospel.

    Do it, Chris.

  7. Amber Ferguson says:

    Let’s have the early winter forecast, please and thank you!!

  8. Kim says:

    I don’t want a 1977-1978 type winter, but I sure would love to build a great big snowman more than once or twice;). Besides, my big red truck needs to use its 4-wheel drive. Bring on your thoughtsโ›„๏ธโ„๏ธ

  9. Kristy says:

    Please give us the early winter forecast. I am not a huge fan of
    winter, I prefer another winter like last year, very light. Of course, when I was a child I always wanted huge snows though!!

  10. B H says:

    Yea I’d like to hear what might happen.

  11. Roger W Newton says:

    Give us that early winter forecast Chris!

  12. EL P says:

    Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…Bring it!

  13. Marsha says:

    Yes Chris we want it the can’t wait

  14. GR says:

    A early October outlook for winter would be awesome!

  15. Mike says:

    would be great, thanks!

  16. Beka Williamson says:

    I vote “Yes” on the early winter forecast!

  17. Jimbo says:

    Talk of Winter is much appreciated during this heatwave. Not very excited about another 5 days of this but at last something to look forward to next week.

  18. Debra says:

    I love early winter predictions. I work in a school system, we are always looking out for those SNOW DAYS!!! They are pretty nice. I love your website as well. Keep up the good work, and thank you

  19. MR says:

    Go for it!โ„โ„โ„โ„โ›„

  20. Ron Miller says:

    Yes please!!!

  21. Timmy Day says:

    Bring on the preliminary.

  22. Jim Hamm says:

    Bring it CB.

  23. DenaA says:

    The earlier the better! Please!!

  24. Kyteach says:

    Winter! Winter! Winter!

  25. Nathan says:

    Bring it on!!!!!

  26. Andrew F says:

    Winter Forecast!

  27. Joshua Webb says:

    Absolutely! The winter forecast is a favorite of mine. I’m hoping for cold and snow.

  28. Gary Schmidt says:

    Yes. Let’s look forward. We need a cold winter once and a while. Appreciate you!

  29. Sarah says:

    Yes please!

  30. Evan H says:

    On behalf of myself and everyone I give a rundown of your blog to, we definitely want an early winter forecast!

  31. Barbara davis says:

    Oh we are excited we read.your blogs daily and can’t wait to hear your thoughts on winter

    • LD says:

      Hamlin, does this post seem like a way to take everyone’s minds off the fact that the hype for Sept. went hugely sideways?
      We’ve had July temps, dew points, humidity for sometime now here and it’s just an after thought ( a little toasty ). I looked back and couldn’t find any discussion of how this month was going to heat up tremendously until right before it started happening. When the forecast was cooperating, it was all “OMG GUYS CAN YOU BELIEVE THESE TEMPS!!!!”. Meanwhile, the AC is running on the first day of fall which is a really rare occurrence for me.

      “The Voice of Reason” was already up this morning and posted something similar on his “stealth blog”. Well, not as stealthy as he thinks, obviously. I don’t enjoy him being right, it just feels icky.

  32. M Jones says:

    Iโ€™d like to see your winter forecast in October!!

  33. BoyleCoMomma says:

    Bring it on!!! I love snow!!

  34. Brian Huffman says:

    Winter talk Yes Yes Yes

  35. Paula clark says:

    Yes, we definitely want to hear your thoughts!!!!!

  36. CMullins says:

    Please, Please, Please give your early winter forecast! I love winter!!!

  37. lisa says:

    Please on the forecast kind sir!!!!

  38. Neil says:

    Bring on the prelim winter outlook, CB!

  39. Jpeezy says:

    Thanks for the work you do. And yes prelim forecast please!

  40. Kaity Mitchell says:

    I literally open this blog every single morning with the dreams that cold seasonal air is in the forecast. Bring on the winter forecast!!

  41. Teacher? Teacher! says:

    Yes! My teacher friends and I were just saying we need a snow day already. Can’t wait hear your preliminary thoughts!

  42. Timothy Frye says:

    Let’s see it

  43. Virgil says:

    Nah, Not interested in an early Winter forecast. Yes Im your friendly winter weather grinch looking to steal joy and wonder for all…

  44. Teacher? Teacher! says:

    Yes! My teacher friends and I were just saying we need a snow day already. Can’t wait to hear your preliminary thoughts!

  45. Christopher says:

    Yes please!

  46. Mimi says:

    Yes please!

  47. KBinNKY says:

    Absolutely, the earlier the better!

  48. Irish says:

    Yes please

  49. Claydar says:

    Is that magic number, 1?
    Do it!

  50. Ron says:

    The sooner the better

  51. LD says:

    Does anyone have a handy valuation chart for transferring amounts of things like “comments” = “facebook likes” = “prayers” ? How are the value trends in any of these lately? Volatile or is it okay to have a diverse portfolio? Should I short on the “prayers” and put more into “likes”? Can I combine currencies into a financial instrument, say “commenting on prayers to get likes” ?
    All too confusing, which is why I like blockchain based currencies.

  52. Dottie says:

    I’d like to know how much wood we need to get cut and split and how soon we need to do it. Let’s hear those winter thoughts Chris.

  53. venus muncie says:

    yes like to see that october prediction for our winter ahead

  54. Marsha says:

    Early winter forecast..pretty please?

  55. Steve Bailes says:

    Go! Chris! Go!
    Winter forecast please!!

  56. GWENDA Johnson says:

    October, with the option to update as needed, would be great!

  57. Phil Hill says:

    The wooly worms are already telling!

  58. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, The Autumn forecast, but a little early for the Winter. Here’s the Autumn and Winter one hundred years ago:

  59. Doug says:

    Bring it on!

  60. LP says:

    I’m a school teacher – give me that early winter forecast! My sanity depends on it.

  61. Teresa says:

    Hey Chris. Let’s go for it. Us weather geeks can’t wait!

  62. Amy says:

    Yes!! Please do ๐Ÿ™‚

  63. Daniel says:

    Yes. Do it. That is all

  64. Frankie says:

    I look forward to the October prediction every year! Chris you do an amazing job on the KY Weather Blog! Keep up the good work. I love sharing the blog with my students at school.

  65. BubbaG says:

    Given how last winter panned out (I agreed with CB’s forecast FWIW), it will be interesting. Not seeing two years in a row with a big goose egg, but prior to the previous two big snow winters, we did have 16 years of wimpy snows for most areas. The big events were ice.

    That’s the good news for last winter- we did not get any ice events, so the goose egg for snow is not so bad ๐Ÿ™‚

  66. David in Gtown says:

    It’s will be interesting to take a look. Another yes vote.
    Can’t say I’ve ever seen 31 responses at 8:00 though.

  67. Chris says:

    Bring on the early outlook!

  68. WestOfLexWx says:

    Oh, yeah, we definitely need to see that winter forecast early. Need to know how far we can take the camping season! ๐Ÿ™‚

  69. Lindsey says:

    Chris, I anticipate your winter forecast every year–starting in July! Please deliver early!

  70. Tiffanie underwood says:

    Early Winter forecast please!!!

  71. Anita says:

    Yes please – bring on the early winter update!

  72. Pam says:

    Bring on that winter forecast!!!

  73. Richard says:

    Please bring on your early winter forecast Chris. Thank you for all of your hard work.

  74. C in BG says:

    Thanks Chris! A preliminary Winter forecast would be awesome!

  75. bgbecky says:

    I’m curious, but timid, as models really seem to not have much knowledge of what is going on past a few days out!! Let us hear your thoughts, Chris!!

  76. Chris Lewis says:

    Would love to see a winter forecast after all it’s my favorite season

  77. Sharon Kirk says:

    Please, I live for your Winter Forecast!! LOL

  78. Ohgirl says:

    Checked in today just to see what you were thinking about things for fall and winter. Yes please throw out some early thoughts.!

  79. Rickie H says:

    I love love love to hear your winter comments. Bring on the winter talk

  80. Catpapa2525 says:

    Early Forcast Yes!

  81. Shawn says:

    Early forecast please!

  82. Mark Cissell says:

    I agree with you regarding the seasonal models. I often look at the CPC models especially for the winter months and they are rarely accurate. Their 90 day models are the worst, sometimes they see an obvious trend so the 30 day models are ok from time to time. It’s really fascinating how you use analog years, Joe Bastardi does that well also, Weatherbellanalytics does great work as well. I really enjoy going over their long term outlooks. I look forward to your outlook in OCT!

  83. SpaceGhost says:

    We can all get to pickin’ our dueling meteorological banjos all the way down to Aintree with early winter forecasts from both Schroeder AND CB in our canoes! *tunes 5-string*

  84. 540 line says:

    Absolutely would love to see a
    preliminary winter forecast!

    Chris Bailey thank you for all you do !

    Your hard work is greatly appreciated !

  85. Josh says:

    Let’s see it!!

  86. Jacob Williams says:

    Would love to see the preliminary winter forecast in October. You rock Chris Bailey!

  87. Mike says:

    Early winter forecast, please! (Double meaning intended!)

  88. Julie says:

    Yes I want to hear your October winter forecast. Please put the forecast on the blog too. I can’t get WKYT. ๐Ÿ™

  89. Sandy says:

    I’ve never commented before. I would love an early winter forecast. Thanks for doing this blog. I love it!!

  90. Mike says:

    YES, absolutely give us a sneak peek!

  91. Andrew says:

    Bring it CB!

  92. TA says:

    Yes please ๐Ÿ™‚

  93. Marc says:

    Please give us the sneak peek

  94. Ronnie says:

    I’m a school bus driver and read this daily as to what’s coming up. Please give us your early forecast !! ๐Ÿ™‚

  95. Debbie W. says:

    Earlier the info the better to plan. Read this every morning and if bad weather check back several times during the day. Thanks for all you do.

  96. Adam Priestwood says:

    Early forecast!

  97. Ken Miller says:

    Not a winter fan, but bring on the preliminary forcast!

  98. Terri Back says:

    Terri says

    I want to see it!!!

  99. Terri Back says:

    Terri says

    I want to see it!!!

  100. Donna says:

    Yes! Early forecast, please!

  101. EKY Teacher says:

    I need snow days!!!!!!!!!!!!

  102. Ryan Jones says:

    Bring on that early winter forecast!

  103. Fiste01 says:

    I would love to know if winter is going to slam us this year, since last year we almost saw no winter.

  104. Clayton Richards says:

    Yes to early forecast!

  105. Mike says:


  106. Carla says:

    Yes, please bring on that winter forecast! I’m hoping for some snow!!

  107. Frank from Georgetown says:

    I would love to see what kinda winter we might have around here.

  108. Mary says:

    Winter Forecast please!

  109. Kyle W says:

    Yes please

  110. Eddie says:

    Would like to see your thoughts for upcoming winter

  111. Brian says:

    I vote for October winter preview forecast.

  112. Tiffany Tarter says:

    Yes please!

  113. Angi says:

    Yes, I would love to see the October winter preview.

  114. Jake says:

    Letโ€™s see that early forecast Chris. Come on, YOU CAN DO IT!!!

  115. Snowteach says:

    Yes PLEASE!!!

  116. Barry says:


  117. Bobby says:

    Yay for early forcast!

  118. Dee says:

    I’m already getting excited about the upcoming winter! I’m thinking if you (Chris) are considering a preliminary report in early October, then there might just be an interesting look ahead. (That’s what I’m hoping anyway!) Please do one!!

  119. Kdogg says:

    Would love to see your winter forecast!

  120. Matt says:

    Please. Please. Early winter forecast!!!!

  121. Faye says:

    Yes, please!

  122. Michael Gross says:

    Bring on the winter weather outlook. So I can do mine for my school. “The weather Wizard”

  123. Tracy may says:

    Give us the early winter forecast!

  124. Braxton Webster says:

    I want the winter forecast!

  125. Keegan says:

    Make the Forecast!!!

  126. Nadine Spangler says:

    Give us the preliminary!!!! Thank you! :}

  127. Kayla says:

    I’d like the early winter forecast!

  128. Timothy Goins says:

    Early winter please

  129. Kevin Smith says:

    The weather wienies want winter tidings…

  130. Shawn says:

    I would really like to see a preliminary forecast! Think Snow!

  131. Nathan says:

    Please give us the October preliminary forecast!

  132. Matt Hacker says:

    Do the preliminary forecast!!

  133. Todd says:

    sounds good Chris, Lets here it

  134. Christal says:

    I want to hear your thoughts!

  135. Eduardo says:

    Let us see that winter forecast!!!! Mr. Bailey

  136. Alison says:

    The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for wet and mild, like last year. I would love to know your thoughts!

  137. Jamie says:

    Yes definitely would appreciate an early winter outlook. Personally, I think “El Nino -vs- La Nina is over-hyped for this area, so I’d like to know what other factors will go into our winter weather. Please do, Chris.

  138. Kay says:

    Yes the earlier the better

  139. MarkLex says:

    Yes! Don’t ever ‘TOY’ with a winter forecast idea. Just do it ๐Ÿ™‚

  140. 3789N8436W says:

    School me! Hoping for any of these analogs: 1977, 1978, 1979…..

  141. Verda Hacker says:

    Bring it on!!

  142. Right as Rain says:

    In case 175 is that magic number!

  143. Tina says:

    Been waiting alllll summer!! Please tell!!

  144. Kim says:


  145. Susan says:

    October winter thoughts please. Do I have enough hay in the barn to last through the winter. I’ve got 50 more bales than we needed last year.

  146. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Yes to that Oct forecast.Chris I wish you or someone could talk about if we have a LA Nina this year and what it means for ky.Bring on a snowy winter.

  147. Lois says:

    Bring on the winter talk

  148. Donna Hepp says:

    Writing from Florence, Italy….Inquiring minds want to know….. please send a snowy winter!

  149. Sara Wright says:

    Post it in October!! โ„๏ธโ„๏ธ

  150. Andrew Safie says:

    Winter is coming! Yes sir please!

  151. Reenyinky says:

    Chris’ Winter Forcast…the high point of my Fall! Appreciate your hard work!

  152. Rich Cooper says:

    Chris, it takes some courage to do the prognostication thing, but I’m looking forward to your comments!

  153. Brian Jones says:

    Yep Chris we need a preliminary winner forecast. We smashed that 150 comment number that you had in your head… #ImWaiting

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