A Pattern Change In The Making

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of October is upon us and the weather continues to run on the awesome side of things to start. That looks to change later this week as we go into a pretty active setup. It’s a setup that will feature the tropical action trying to team up with several systems diving in from the west and northwest.

Today through Wednesday continues to look like a very nice period. Highs are generally in the 70s, with a local 80 possible. Skies will stay partly sunny with those gorgeous wispy fall clouds showing up from time to time. There is a small shower chance in the west, as well.

A cold front slowly drops closer to the region on Thursday, with an increase in clouds and a chance for some showers. That front then moves in and slows down Friday into Saturday, giving us a good chance for rain…

This sets the stage for another system to roll across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. That system can bring some showers and storms our way.

This will be followed by A DEEP trough digging into the country by early next week. This will be pushed by a lot of cold air, and will try to pick up something tropical trying to spin up in the Gulf. Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian Model is more robust with the tropical system, but it’s always too amped up. It’s also likely seeing a spurious system in the Atlantic at the same time…

The shot of cold showing up is very impressive and is growing colder on the models…

The tropics will have a big say in the timing, and with how cold things can get.

This is a very amplified and extreme looking pattern taking shape over the next several weeks. Big temperature swings in both directions are likely as we head through October and early November. 2013 is one of the top analog years I’m currently looking at for the winter ahead. Our first flakes came before Halloween that year. Of course, that doesn’t mean this month will be a spot on repeat, but it’s food for thought.

Speaking of winter, I will be putting out a preliminary forecast in the next few weeks. Spread the word.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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12 Responses to A Pattern Change In The Making

  1. DJC says:

    Here’s hoping the pattern change brings some rain.

  2. Matt says:

    I’m not buying any of the models until I see raindrops falling from the sky. We haven’t had any rain to speak of in the SE since the Harvey remnants a month ago. Letcher mesonet recorded 0.68 the entire month of Sept. Needless to say it’ll be another disastrous fire season if this pattern persists.

  3. Snowman says:

    put that winter forecast out the sooner the better!

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou isn’t ready to bite a pattern change just yet. Remember the weekend was a lil bit warmer than those models predicted from about this point out. We’d love to see some sustained cooler air, but we’ll have to see.

  5. 3789N8436W says:

    Such a teaser this Bailey is! Look out for the Outlook!~!

  6. BubbaG says:

    Wasn’t 2013 the year we got snow in October and hardly anything afterwards but a few near ankle biters? If so, not exactly a good reference year for snow lovers. Kind of like putting your fishing line in the water and catching a fish withing a minute and then nothing after that. 😉

    • BubbaG says:

      Then again, last winter most of us got less than an inch total for snow. A few ankle biters would be a 400% increase 🙂 Equal does of salt too though.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      He didn’t say it was going to be a good year or not for snow lovers yet.

    • C in BG says:

      Winter of 2013-2014 was extremely cold, but like y`all said it was a bit of a let down in the snow dept. depending on one`s opinion.

  7. Jamie says:

    Considering the number of bugs this past year, I’d take a good shot of cold, snow or not, this winter.

  8. Rickie H says:

    I would like to see a lot of cold. Real cold.

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