Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Your friendly weather dude is here and reporting for duty on a gorgeous fall day in the bluegrass state. Big changes are pushing in here over the next few days, as we get into a pattern that looks more like late November than late October.

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the west this afternoon and evening. You will notice this action really increasing later in the evening as it comes from southwest to northeast…

Heavy rain and thunderstorms then quickly move in here tonight and Monday. This system is zipping along pretty good, so we may “only” get an inch or two of rain from this. Winds are going to crank as this low works on top of us, and will really crank Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air rushes in from the northwest…

Gusty showers will continue into Tuesday and a part of Wednesday. Flakes will likely fly in the high elevations to our east.

Temps on Tuesday drop into the upper 40s as the cold surges in. Readings on Wednesday may stay in the 40s for highs, with the NAM giving us the coldest look…

Gusty southwesterly winds will then kick in ahead of a much bigger surge of cold coming for the weekend. Friday will be an interesting day with a spike in temps, gusty winds, a line of showers and falling temps. The cold crashes in behind this into Saturday…

Notice how that model has the cold catching the back edge of the rain shield by Saturday evening. That would suggest the potential for some flakes…

That’s certainly a possibility, but it’s all about timing of the cold catching the precipitation. Just something fun to watch at this point.

Speaking of the cold…

Highs this weekend may stay in the upper 30s and low 40s with wind chill numbers showing up several degrees colder. We will be able to string together 3 or 4 mornings in a row of lows in the 20s.

This whole setup is showing that my analog years have some merit. For the past few weeks, I’ve talked about them pointing toward this type of late October pattern. Being able to see the teleconnections are proving valuable, too. From a recurving typhoon to the various indicies, this stuff has more value than simply regurgitating computer models.

I will see you guys later tonight for an update. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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3 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Update

  1. Robert says:

    CB, when will you have your winter prediction ready for posting? I’m very curious and hopeful that this coming winter won’t be a dud like much of last winter.

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    A few consecutive nights in the 20’s would put an end to the allergy/moving/growing season. Seems like last year that went on until almost December! This does seem more like the pattern entering November 2014!

  3. Rickie H says:

    Sounds cold to me! I’m definitely going to have to change my clothes out now. Bring on the sweatshirts and coats!

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