Good Monday, everyone. We have a supercharged pattern taking shape later this week and that looks to kick start a winter looking pattern by the weekend. That winter looking pattern should continue into Thanksgiving week, with cold turkey looking more and more likely.
Let’s start with the short term and roll forward. Clouds will be stubborn out there today, with a seasonal chill in the air. This will likely carry us into Tuesday, too.
A weak cold front drops in here on Wednesday, bringing more showers to the region….
There’s a little dip in temps coming in behind that into Thursday.
From there, get ready for a monster of a storm system to take aim at the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This storm is likely to become a headline maker as it does so.
We find the usual issues with the operational models. From exact placement, strength and timing, they all vary, but they agree on a big storm.
The GFS is the most progressive of the models because that’s a well known bias of this model…
Even on the ‘progressive’ GFS, that’s one heck of a storm.
The European Model is a little slower and deeper…
The Canadian Model shows a monster winding up in the Great Lakes…
The model keeps that storm spinning across the Great Lakes and into the northeast into early next week, with northwesterly winds cranking behind it. That kicks off the lake effect snow machine and even tries to bring some flakes into our region.
So what could this weekend system mean for our weather?
A big temp spike is likely ahead of this system on Friday with showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day into Friday night. Some of those could be strong. This system also has the look of a high wind maker. I could see 40-50mph gusts as this thing wraps up Friday night.
Temps would then crash behind it on a strong northwesterly wind. Even colder air works in Saturday night and Sunday. If we can get a true northwesterly wind, a few flakes would be possible.
This should be followed by another push of cold air for Thanksgiving week. The GFS Ensembles keep showing the colder than normal setup through Thanksgiving weekend…
That next blast of cold next week may also include the chance for some flakes. The GFS Ensembles like our chances to see, at least, some flakes over the next 10 days…
Updates will come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.