Sunday Evening Look Ahead

Good afternoon, everyone. We are closing out an awesome holiday weekend across the bluegrass states. This might be one of the better travel periods we have ever had for the entire Thanksgiving period. As we head into a new week, changes are showing up.

We continue to track a late week system, with a major winter pattern likely to unfold for the following week.

Temps continue to look mild for the first half of the week ahead on a stout southwesterly wind. There’s a shower chance on Wednesday, but much of the gusty rains arrive on Thursday. The models keep going back and forth with just how strong the late week system will be.

The stronger it is, the more cold air it can create on Friday, potentially bringing some flakes with the departing rains. The new GFS is marginal for the flakes, but is deeper than earlier runs…

The first week of December is when we continue to see massive oveall changes showing up. I’ve highlighted the battle between the cold signals and the mild signals over the past week. The blocking is going to win this battle, sending much of the country into a deep winter setup by late in the first full week of December. That’s a setup that should hang through the holidays.

The Ensembles have been showing this for a while, and now we have the operational models showing the same thing. The GFS shows a major storm that unleashes the cold…

Those maps for December 6-8.

This is EXACTLY when ALL Ensembles have been showing the winter pattern surging into much of the country. The AVERAGE of 51 members of the European Ensembles is crazy cold for almost the entire country…

The control run of the European is brutal across the land…

The blocking forecast to set up is straight out of the playbook of some of the more extreme winters across the country.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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6 Responses to Sunday Evening Look Ahead

  1. Nasdaq says:

    First time I’ve been excited about potential setup this year, bring it. Hard to get into the Christmas spirit with temps in the 60’s.

  2. Rickie H says:

    This sounds very cold and interesting… I know you’ll keep us on top of things. If it hangs around we might even squeeze a white Christmas out. Yay ! Thank you!

  3. Cold Rain says:

    Snow on the ground around the it..

  4. Rich says:

    Wouldn’t it be fun to have a white Christmas this year!! A big snow would be great!!

  5. MarkLex says:

    Reading this – I’m remembering Chris mention in the past on this blog Dec 1989 (at least I think it was 1989) where that winter Dec was brutally cold – nearly the entire month – but after that, it warmed up and the rest of the winter was a dud. But I don’t think 1989 was one of his analog years.

  6. Cold Rain says:

    Been a long long time seeing a pattern like this setting up this early in the not to distant future..Really don’t get no better..May get lucky or may not but the hammer is about to drop..

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