Tracking The Switch From Bitter Cold To Wintry

Good evening, everyone. The bitterly cold temperatures continue, in what has been one of, if not THE, coldest starts to any year on record. Today is the 5th straight day of single digits or below, and we will stretch that out to 6 on Saturday. From there, we watch for a potential winter weather maker later Sunday into Monday.

If you’ve been watching your friendly weatherdude on the tube, you can tell I continue to fight this bug that’s going around. Given that, I’m going to TRY to keep this fairly short.

Temps out there this morning are just brutal. Lows can drop to zero or below for areas totally cleaning up the sky, with single digits for those who don’t. Wind chills range from -5 to -15 at times. Highs today reach 20 or so in the south, with middle teens in the north. Gusty winds will tell your body something else.

Saturday is another brutal one with lows from -5 to +5 and a wind chill approaching -10 at times. Highs are back into the upper teens and low 20s.

I have no changes to my thoughts about the late Sunday into Monday system. The models should continue to trend a little colder as we get closer, leading to more of a wintry mix than what they are already showing. All modes of precipitation are possible, and the frozen ground is a BIG concern of mine.

Here’s a first look at who has the best chance for the worst of the wintry mix potential…

If it looks like the precipitation will be heavy enough, I may go into Threat mode later today. Again, all modes of precipitation are expected in this scenario.

One week from today, we may very well be tracking a stronger system from the south, riding up the Appalachian Mountains.

Back to the weather of today… A band of light snow is working across western Kentucky and may put down light accumulations. I have you set to track the small system…


Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead



I-65 MP 92.4

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I will have updates later today, so check back.

Make it a good one and take care.

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31 Responses to Tracking The Switch From Bitter Cold To Wintry

  1. B H says:

    Next Thursday the national weather service in Charleston WV says 45 Degrees for Southern Ohio where I live.

  2. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Cold slushy rain.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for all the weather information. This weather event coming is very complicated to predict where and exactly the warm front will set up. Hopefully, the precipitation will be on the light side and will not last long, and will not be ice. Take care, and I hope you feel better soon.

  4. Farmer 43 says:

    U know cb said we was gonna have a front loaded winter dec I think still ended up above normal we’ve had absolutely no snow where I’m at in nw ky I can’t believe we can’t even get some snow showers off and on or a clipper just a really strange pattern Jan is appearing now to be possibly normal or above normal so the way I see it February is our only hope for snow lovers

    • Schroeder says:

      February is our snowiest month, we will see.

      • BubbaG says:

        The catch is CB and a lot of other mets (local and national) pointed out snow early winter and then Kentucky area being the fence for cold and warm air during the second half. The snow DID pan out, but not for Kentucky. Seems a decent bet (sadly) that the second half winter outlook will pan out for Kentucky.

  5. Tim says:

    Temp keeps rising for Monday system. Here comes the rain

  6. c-BIV says:

    What’s Jay say on WLKY32? Well, he said last night this is not a major event at all. It will be light and not cause much traveling issues. He really didn’t seem concerned at all. Then he talks about a big warm up in store for late next week…mid 50’s.

    • BubbaG says:

      My bet is with mainly cold rain and any mix event chance would mainly be up towards north Kentucky. Also warmer air likely the main event for “a week out’. Model cred for this year (and last) has been at an epic fail level. Why expect them to pan out now? Kentucky winter weather law seems holding steady for second year: Cold = mainly dry, Warm = mainly wet.

      BTW, hope CB feels better soon! 🙂

      • Andy Rose says:

        If ground temps don’t get above freezing it will be cold freezing rain. If we can get some sun and above 32 degrees before it comes in that will help tremendously.

  7. Bobt says:

    If no snow then I’m all for the warm-up. Hate to pay these heat bills with not one day of eye candy outside. Did temps get as low as predicted last night? It already up to 13 here in the SE part of state.

  8. Rodger in Dodger says:

    This is Mr Bailey’s blog, and Rodger finds it rude to post what the NWS or other mets are saying. Mr Bailey’s been saying for five days the models for this weekend’s event will get colder and that the ground cold could make it icy regardless of precip type. Lo and behold, that’s what others are saying now too. Mr Bailey is a weather enthusiast and spends many hours on this blog; it’s the best. Let’s appreciate it. Rodger in Dodger

    • c-BIV says:

      Not that I need to explain to your 3rd person alter ego, but I’ll humor ya Rocky Maivia aka: Rodger in Dodger.
      Sometimes certain MET’s are to hum-ho in their forecasts, when actual-impact matters. I was trying to show this. For those who have kids, Monday morning has a chance to be a messy school commute. So, I think it’s a bigger deal than what the other MET suggested.

  9. Russell says:

    Get well soon Chris!! West KY snow remains AWOL.

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Never under estimate the power of dense cold air..As many have said an experienced met is sometimes better than models in these type of setups..Hopefully the precip will be light and arrive midday after the morning commutes..

  11. Jamie says:

    Well, we need the rain. We’ve turned very dry and as much as we hate cold rain, you don’t want a dry winter.

    • Brian from Rockcastle says:

      Very dry! Had my pond cleaned out this fall and not filled yet. Going down. Since Thanksgiving we here has had 2.5″ of rain on that one day event.

  12. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Morning NAM run more robust and colder – Rodger in Dodger

  13. Cindy B says:

    Hope you feel better soon Chris. Thanks for all you do. It is greatly appreciated!!!!

  14. Connor says:

    AccuWeather just posted an update and put Northern Kentucky and areas including Lexington in Frankfort in an icy mix and mess Sunday into Monday. They echoed what Chris’s been saying all along about the ground being too cold and will not thaw even with the increase of temperatures during the event. Kudos Mr. Bailey.

  15. MarkS says:

    “One week from today, we may very well be tracking a stronger system from the south, riding up the Appalachian Mountains “….LOL, that statement must be for all you snow lovers, that sentence is loaded with potential lol

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