Tracking A Messy Setup

Good Saturday to one and all. Stop me if you’ve heard this before… But, it’s another brutally cold day out there across the Commonwealth. The good news is, the bitter cold is about to break. The bad news is, we have a wintry mix coming behind it.

We start things out with readings of -5 to + in most areas, with a wind chill pushing -10 for some. Afternoon readings top out in the upper teens and low 20s with a mostly sunny sky.

Temps tonight into Sunday morning should manage to hit the single digits again in the central and east.

That will make it 7 straight days of single digits or colder to begin the new year. Take a step back and just appreciate how amazingly cold this pattern has been. It’s historic.

Moisture begins to stream in from west to east late Sunday into Sunday night. With low-level arctic air in place, frozen precipitation looks like a good bet. Throw in a frozen ground, and you have the recipe for nasty travel conditions to develop.

That’s especially true when seeing the Monday morning temps from the NAM…

Don’t get caught up with the precipitation types showing up on the models. They will struggle mightily in this setup. As I’ve mentioned many times before, even if air temps go above freezing, the ground is frozen, so you will get roads to ice up.

Let’s keep this rolling for a little longer…

 I can’t speak to 100% specifics of each precipitation type where you live, but the icy road potential is pretty darn high, regardless.

That system moves away quickly, with a surge of mild temperatures getting in here later Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS for Thursday…

That’s ahead of a powerful cold front, bringing this about a day later…

Rain and some thunder will be possible ahead of that front, with frozen precipitation showing up just behind it…

That setup should be able to fuel a low pressure along the front, bringing the potential for a bigger system by late Friday or Saturday.

I will have updates later today, so check back.

Make it a good one and take care.

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44 Responses to Tracking A Messy Setup

  1. B H says:

    Those 60’s will feel good for a day.

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    Interesting fact of the day: January 1-5 had an average temperature of 12.8 degrees at Leixngton. That’s the second coldest start to a year on record. In 1928 the average temp for January 1-5 was 9.9 degrees.

    I did check, over the same period in 1928 we had a trace of snow on the ground and 0.1 inches of snow fell.

  3. Bob says:

    Bring on the heat! People will not want to see their next power bills. 3 degrees here in my part of Knott County as of 6:30 A.M..

  4. Formerly from KY says:

    My Air force buddy who’s son is a Weather Officer in the Air Force says that the east will see a major warm up and the west will see Arctic temps that could last into February

    • B H says:

      Great to here that. I had 8 below zero at 2:30 am this morning. Southern Ohio.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Where I’M at in Pennsylvania it is 15 below with only a high of 4 today, yesterdays high was only -3 with wind chill factor of -30. Still have several inches of snow on ground so doesn’t help with temps.

    • Schroeder says:

      I agree with that weather scenario. Looks like at the present that the rest of the winter in Kentucky will continue to be uneventful even with the big warm up coming after next weekend. Whatever happened to our usual changeable climate in the Ohio valley, where we would have storms coming out of the southern Rockies ( Colorado Low ) and the western Gulf of Mexico where moisture bearing low pressure systems would move toward the Ohio valley. I always thought that climate change was BS, but now I am beginning to believe that the Earth’s climate is undergoing a major change and is accelerating. Because every year the global temperatures are always warmer than the year before.Thank you for your service in the US Air force.

      • feederband says:

        Bomb cyclone, polar vortex, super storm, and other media sensationalized terms. Remember in the 80’s when the “ozone layer” was going to end humanity as we know it today? It was in the papers and on the news daily. Well, were still here. Skin may be a little crispy but still kicking.

  5. Bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for all you do!
    For the first time in over two winters I finally get to go throw some salt. Still have the ton I bought last year, well about a half ton now, as most melted away during the summer rains. Crazy to think we my hit the upper 60’s by mid week with another snow chance to end it. January thaw is on its way, but I will guarantee that winter will return and before all said and done we will be having more fun and games to end winter. Looking forward to the chance of wintery precip and the nice midweek warm up.

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Sounds like a good day to stay inside and get work done in the house! Have to get out a little bit. We are what, 15 days into winter? Can’t help but feel like we are going to see one good snow this year. I may be wrong, wouldn’t be the first time. The ness tomorrow and Monday has me concerned. That set up could cause folks to lose power. Let’s hope not. Have a great Saturday. Thanks again Chris for all you do.

  7. Cold Rain says:

    Does anyone have a timeline for all this mess..Chris says west to east late Sunday into Sunday night..So by Monday morning all this is gone or what..Confusing..

    • Schroeder says:

      No, because the computer models are not in agreement with this coming weather event.

      • Bjenks says:

        When are they ever in agreement. Unless it is the day of the event. Only model to trust is the NAM. It is better to nowcast. Tomorrow nights and Monday event will come in warmer than what the models are saying and CB’s lines should be moved further North. With that being said the precipitation will be falling on very frozen ground so I do expect some issues here in the Ville with the outlying areas having more of an issue.

      • Bjenks says:

        Even with a Jan. thaw, which I don’t think will be all that impressive, we will still have our cold nights and mornings. The thaw will be short lived as the Artic air returns for most of Feb lingering into March. Winter is just getting started and we will have plenty of fun and games to go through before spring arrives in late March.

  8. Bobt says:

    With the January thaw coming our chances of a snowy winter are slim. By Feb. 15 the temps here in Southern Kentucky hit 50s for average highs. We might sneak in a big snow, but it’s probably not going to lay long.. Temps start trending warmer about then. Winter will be coming to a end pretty soon by the time the January thaw is over.

    • BubbaG says:

      Essentially CB and some other local & national mets outlooked this as well. Front loaded snow for the area and back-loaded warm/cold air battles with Kentucky of course being the main fence.

      The front end has been snow loaded- just not Kentucky. Now we are likely headed to other extremes. Tomorrow pans out, not a good trend going forward. Snow may have not panned out, but the other stuff could.

      Interesting that if we are getting the stuff tomorrow, there are no watches yet.

  9. Rachel says:

    All week the general forecasts have been off on the high temps and today is no different. Yesterday looking at forecasts like the weather channel and accu weather they had Louisville getting into the upper 30’s today and 40’s tomorrow. This morning they had us getting to 30… Now they’ve lowered the high for today to 20. I don’t know that I can believe it’s really going to get to the 50’s… Lol but it would feel nice for a day. The cold is definitely winning out over and over this winter. I just wish we could have some snow to go along with it!

  10. Joyce says:

    Snow snow snow. Please!!!

  11. Rachel says:

    Oh – I do!

  12. Schroeder says:

    If you all would just take the time and study the water vapor loop, you would see what is actually going on at the present. At this time I don’t see any organized weather systems in the plains, Texas pan handle or in the Gulf of Mexico. The northwesterly winds are still in place. Right now I have clear skies with a temperature of eleven degrees and calm winds. If that system does form it will likely move far south of our area, and as dry as the air is, I would be surprised if we have any precipitation. Maybe we will have some snow flurries or just grey skies ? Who knows, certainly not the three weather models, what a joke LOL.

    • Lotsasnow says:

      Your so wrong

    • BengalFan says:

      Vapor Stores are popping all over the place, you could be right.

    • Prelude says:

      So question Schroeder if the precipitation does develop and does affect Kentucky with all precip modes late Sunday night into Monday would that mean your completely over looking something? There’s more factors on how a Low can develop besides what the water vapor loop is showing.

  13. Cold Rain says:

    Yep Rachel cold is winning..Our next weekend system if it’s even anything by then will probably get suppressed like the others..(Pattern were in).Giving the deep south more snow or run up the coast for another blizzard…Wonderful..Last night’s Euro though was in line with the GFS which gives Eastern Ky a good snow with some ice..So maybe’s there hope..Long way’s out with 14 and 28 more model runs..Yippie..

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