Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, my fellow weather weenies. Our wintry mix is slowly winding down this afternoon, leaving behind improving road conditions. The frozen ground did its thing this morning, causing ice that shut down several roads in central and eastern Kentucky.

Some additional travel issues will be noted this afternoon, but ground temps are slowly coming up. With light rain continuing to fall, be on guard for some icy spots on untreated roads, sidewalks and parking lots…

Some patchy light freezing drizzle will also be possible tonight and early Tuesday, but temps will continue to be marginal.

The setup for later this week into the weekend continues to look pretty awesome for weather nerds. We have a significant trough digging through the region Friday into Saturday. Check out the negative tilt on this trough…

That setup will spawn a MAJOR temperature gradient and will also fire up a big Ohio Valley winter storm.

Check out the temps ahead of this system on Thursday…

Don’t kick me out of the winter weather fan club if I tell you that I’m looking forward to that! 🙂 Thunder and lightning may be noted with all that. Woot!

Now, let’s watch the bottom fall out from west to east on Friday. Temps by Friday night may be 40-50 degrees colder…

How about the prospects of some kind of Ohio Valley winter storm? Those chances are much higher than normal in the setup noted above.

Every run of the GFS continues to show a hefty event, but the runs vary slightly on placement and intensity…

6z GFS

12z GFS

The Canadian Model also continues to show a significant Ohio Valley winter storm…

I cannot tell you the exact impact that will have on our weather in Kentucky, but we are very much in the game for a potential winter storm. As of now, central and western Kentucky has a greater shot than the east. That can change, depending on the track of the low.

From 60s and thunderstorms, to a potential winter storm in 24 hours? That sounds about right for the bluegrass state.

I will have the latest on this on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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94 Responses to Monday Afternoon Update

  1. Scott Browning says:

    Heard this a couple times this winter. Believe it when I see a good snow on the ground.

  2. which way is the wind blowing says:

    If this weekend storm does not pan out I am done with winner.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. We fared well this morning, as our precious stayed liquid for the most part. No issues. Have a good (and warm) afternoon everyone.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, I like your forecast for the up coming weekend. I just hope it is all very heavy snow state wide, like we use to get back 60 years ago. You say winter storm, are you saying it could be a possible ice storm too ?

  5. Dawnp007 says:

    let it come a BIG snow!!! Thanks, Chris!

  6. Formerly from KY says:

    As always the model runs are all over the place with this upcoming event. But like when I lived in Kentucky it will turn out to be a rain maker with a few snow flakes at the end.

    • Prelude says:

      No actually so far the models are not all over the place for the Friday night/Saturday system actually very good agreement for once.

      • Schroeder says:

        It does sound like the models are going to agree this time with the snow event late Friday. I hope it is one storm after another for two weeks. Maybe we will have thunder snow, which is always exciting.

      • Lotsasnow says:

        Your right they are in agreement and that is very abnormal. But I am very concerned for a serious ice storm.

  7. B H says:

    When I was young the old timers use to say if you get heavy enough rain to lay this ice like we have up on the side of the creek banks.There will be another storm to come along and take it away.

  8. Lillian says:

    I’ll believe snow when I see it on the ground.

  9. Cold Rain says:

    Glad for those southwest winds in south Eky..Ice pretty much a no show.. As for snow next weekend hope Western ky gets nailed..When you get older ain’t no fun driving in this stuff..

  10. Matt says:

    I’m rooting for rain, got enough to do every day without having to shovel and plow. Not to mention we’ll lose power with as little as 4-5 in of wet snow.

  11. BubbaG says:

    Don’t these type of systems trend somewhat east verses the models five days out? Some systems actually move somewhat west. Not sure on this one’s type.

  12. Lucy says:

    We need a winter storm to cover all of KY and Southern Indiana, not a WKY slider. Let’s see how this looks come Thursday.

  13. B H says:

    These computers have been all over the place this winter. I’m going to wait and see what happens until a couple of days out. Some will be in for a let down if they don’t.

  14. Rodger in Dodger says:

    This is a setup that could very well pan out for much of Kentucky. Finally, the very cold dry pattern is gone. Wild temperature swings sometimes bring big snow. Will be fun to watch. This is Rodger in Dodger

  15. Bernard P. Fife says:

    One thing looked pretty consistent to Thelma Lou & myself for each of those runs & that is; southern ky looks to get in on the lightest amounts of the precip. If there is any snow at play on Friday we suspect north central to north east will get the healthier swath.

  16. Jimbo says:

    Anxiously awaiting the rain and “Dreaded Backside Flurries” for this weekend in WV…………….NOT

  17. Schroeder says:

    Everyone, lets all be positive on this coming snowstorm. If we are not, we will scare it away, might be something to what I just said.

  18. Cold Rain says:

    Models started out with the low further east giving Eastern ky a big snow….Then it went west giving Western ky a big snow..Latest run ticked east a hair..So next run will probably be in Michigan..

    • snowrunner says:

      Then that’s where I wanna be. My old home state of MI is getting awesome snow this winter. Sure do miss that!

  19. Prelude says:

    By tonight or tomorrow the Friday night/Saturday morning storm system will be in the NAM’s view.

  20. LOUTeach says:

    Would love to experience thunder snow again! Would be a great science/weather nerd moment to have with my daughter! Getting a little excited about the possibilities for the weekend!!!

  21. C in BG says:

    The afternoon Euro run has a smackdown on west ky. It has trended East from its last run. Here`s hoping the trend continues.

  22. Justin says:

    If it does pan out like the models are showing right now, the only con would be having to snow hard enough to overcome a warm, wet ground. It can happen though. Saw it snow 7 inches in 3 hours down here in middle tn one time on a ground exposed to 60 degree temps 2 days prior.

  23. TennMark says:

    In their most recent FD, NWS Nashville is already noting signs of the potential winter storm at the end of this week. The southern jet is finally showing some life. Depending on where the low tracks……. 😉 .

    As many of us know, cold air has been pouring south of the Gulf Coast, with many ships well off shore reporting snow in recent times. Waters temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico have been falling in recent weeks (just like the cold stunned lizards from trees in Florida). Actually, the same thing happened in early 2010 as well (including the falling lizards). The cooler Gulf waters delayed the peak of the 2010 spring severe wx season as there was less northbound warmth and moisture available in the early stages; it will be interesting if the 2018 spring severe season also gets off to a slow start.

  24. Clay county says:

    Dreaming and hoping for a big snow this weekend for southeastern Ky!!!! Need a big one to make up for last year!

  25. Jason says:

    Any maps to show how much snow?

  26. Drew says:

    Just how big of a snow is possible this weekend? 3 inches? 6 inches?

    Also, will black ice be a concern in the morning from wet roadways and temps under freezing tonight?

  27. Rich says:

    It’s about time we have a big snow in the Ohio Valley. So far, the last 2 winters have been a bust. The storm this weekend has the potential to produce our first winter storm warning of the winter season. BOTS!!!!!

  28. Kayla says:

    Perhaps another school closing tomorrow?

  29. Lotsasnow says:

    Just took a closer look at all models and are just about all in agreement with placement of low. I believe all of kentucky and ohio will be under a winter storm warning. The only small hiccup would be that sneaky warm air aloft to cause a devastating ice storm for somebody. To see such agreement this far out I don’t think iv seen in years.

    • JimCVG says:

      I just want a sleddable snow for my kids. Is that too much to ask?

      • Schroeder says:

        Absolutely not, I hope everyone gets all the snow they want for sledding. This one snow sport I liked when I was a child back in the 1950’s.

        • B H says:

          You know Schroeder you want the kind of snow that packs well if you want to fly. I was born in 1950 and we went sleigh riding a lot. When I got a little older me and my brothers used a old dodge car hood to ride on. You better buckle your seat belt when you got on it. The more weight the faster it went. We would also build ramps in the snow to jump over. Lots of fun but a lot of work walking back up the hill. Also one other thing I want to mention. At the bottom of the hill was a barbed wire fence you had to stop before you made it that far.

          • snowrunner says:

            Sure do miss those days. Growing up in Michigan, we had winters full of snow and sledding. Used to be a good hill at my highschool. We would sneak lunch trays out and use them for sleds until finally school got tired of telling us to stop so they put a stack of them out there with Hill Tray written on each one! good times

    • BubbaG says:

      Last times were the big ones in 2015 and 16. Not saying this is same though, but was last times.

    • Kat says:

      Is it just KY and OH or is IN included in that?

  30. LeeAnnie says:

    Don’t need a winter storm on the weekend! Can we hurry it up a bit or hold it off til Monday? Lol

    • Debo says:

      If it held off until late Sun-Mon., it would be close enough to the anniversary of the “Shutdown of ’94”! Same timeframe, anyway!

  31. C in BG says:

    Cautiously optimistic about this weekend. Could be an unforgettable snow storm for whomever this affects.

  32. Tyler B. says:

    Wouldn’t it be cool to get some thunder snow with that big temperature gradient!

  33. Lotsasnow says:

    If it were to play out the way models are placing this storm a good part of kentucky would get a good 4-7 Inches a good part of Ohio would get a good 10-14 inchs.

  34. Nasdaq says:

    The operationals are west and the ensembles are east.

  35. SHAAK says:

    Having a big party at my house Saturday. I hope it doesn’t happen.

  36. MarkLex says:

    For those who read the maps, what kind of cold follows this potential winter storm? Will it be days of cold following it or a warm up? Wouldn’t it be crazy to have such a horrible winter (so far) only to end up with multiple storms?

  37. MarkS says:

    I smell another….”just a bit outside” for Friday/Saturday system haha…im gonna be lovin Thursday temps.

  38. Mike S says:

    I think CB is making a ‘pre-threat’ threat for the upcoming weekend.

  39. Lori Hannon-Theaker says:

    It’s not winter without SNOW and that means accumulation!
    Bring it!

  40. Mark says:

    And the 18Z run of the GFS misses Cincinnati with just barely any snow on Fri into Sat storm. I hope it stays the 12z or 6z with more snow then 4 inches!!!!

  41. Mark513 says:

    And the 18Z run of the GFS misses Cincinnati with just barely any snow on Fri into Sat storm. I hope it stays the 12z or 6z with more snow then 4 inches!!!!

  42. Mark513 says:

    Sorry for the double post. Prelude I’m waiting on a Snowfall over just 4 inches here it’s been too long now haha

    • Prelude says:

      Both runs are showing more than 4 inches for Cincinnati area

      • Mark says:

        I just hope its not a major Ice event with the temps dropping fast Friday into Saturday and its quickly over to wet Snow. I want something worth having for sled riding and love a good packing snow for building Igloos,snowmen.

        • snowrunner says:

          Snowman snow. Nothing’s like it. Any thoughts (maybe I have missed them) on timing and inches for Frankfort?

    • BubbaG says:

      Still seems too early for the models and more of an Eastern path could play out.

  43. Troy says:

    I would love a big snow in my back yard here in south SE KY, but If this storm does come to fruition, I’m pulling for southwestern KY snow lovers who ALWAYS get left out. At least this once, northeast KY should get the short end of the stick…

  44. Ecmwf says:

    I really think this can be a decent snowmaker for quite a bit of KY. Ensembles are east of operational models. Even if east KY gets left out of the heavy snow there will be ample wrap around moisture as the low turns into the northeast. The latest Gfs and euro both show that with 2-4 inches of snow mainly from wrap around moisture. Will be interesting to see the trends going forward. I like the placement this far out. Somebody in Kentucky will get a pretty good snow from this as our friends in Ohio may get thumped

  45. Cold Rain says:

    Just glancing at the Euro from earlier looks like it thumps Memphis to Louisville KY..One thing for sure and may be wrong but this ain’t coming east..Maybe some but not much..Pretty much all models are in agreement. Goes neutral tilt early for all the western parts to enjoy..Really hope it’s right for all the fine folks out west..

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