Another Busy Pattern Takes Shape

Good Thursday, everybody. Here’s hoping this update finds life treating you as good as possible. From a weather perspective, things are looking up for the next few days, before another big change moves in for the weekend. That change is all part of another busy pattern settling in, with February having a fun look for winter lovers.

We begin with today and fast forward. Skies become partly sunny with temps heading back into the 40s.

Those 40s become 50s for many on Friday, with a local 60 a possibility. That comes on the strength of a strong southwesterly wind kicking in, ahead of a weekend cold front.

This front will bring a quick increase in showers from west to east on Saturday and those carry us into early Sunday. Rain totals may top a half inch in some areas…

Much colder air comes in behind this system, leading to the potential for some light snow and snow showers Sunday night into Monday…

This setup continues to grow much colder as we get closer.

That shot of cold will push out for all of a day on Wednesday, with a bigger push of cold on the way as we open February. That’s when an arctic front arrives in here, with the models speeding up the arrival time of this system.

For several days now, we have been tracking the potential for a storm system to develop along this front. The current run of the GFS has this in here starting next Thursday…

That’s still a week away, so let’s just chill and see what how this evolves as we get closer. This front will usher in another harsh winter pattern for much of the country for February. This one has the potential to become known for more snow than the one we had from late December through the middle of January.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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39 Responses to Another Busy Pattern Takes Shape

  1. Coach Melton says:

    Thanks Mr. Bailey. You work very hard to keep us up to date on what’s going on. Looking forward to some more snow! Spring can hold off for a while. Take care!

  2. Dawnp007 says:


  3. Formerly from KY says:

    Looks like February will be and interesting month for us snow lovers, I hope it all pans out.

  4. Prelude says:

    Booo!!! I literally just bought a Harley-Davidson Streetglide I’m itching to get out and ride. However I must respect it’s still winter soooo I’ll suck it up and say…..BOTS!!!

    • Bjenks says:

      To much salt on the roads right now anyhow. Wouldn’t want to corrode anything on your new ride. Besides that your a snow lover and you will have a good seven months of riding after winter is over.

    • Bjenks says:

      Thanks for the update CB. I will take a snowy February and March for that matter.

    • B H says:

      You know it’s getting warmer when you here those motorcycles.

    • Formerly from KY says:

      Spring is around the corner.

    • SpaceGhost says:

      Enjoy dressing like a pirate and having HD emblazoned
      on every modicum of clothing you have!

      • Prelude says:

        Easy on the stereo typing there SpaceGhost just because I own a Harley doesn’t mean I dress like a pirate. I truly do not own one HD piece of clothing not even a HD t-shirt or hat. (I’m not your typical HD rider) I just love motorcycles rather it be Harley-Davidson, Honda, Suzuki etc etc. My parents bought me my first bike at age 12 and I’ve been riding motorcycles ever since.

        • Prelude says:

          I have a 7 yr old Rottweiler that lives like a king and has free reign inside my home that my wife, kids, grandchildren and friends absolutely adore. Does that mean Im harboring a vicious junkyard dog that I have had since a puppy since the breed is a Rottweiler? If your answer is yes well then not only are you stereo typing and that your clueless on the Rottweiler Breed but you would be a stereo typical idiot that lets society dictate how you think.

        • Schroeder says:

          Don’t you know there is no such thing as ghost ? LOL

  5. Bobt says:

    I would just as soon early February be cold as warm. Seems like when we have a really warm part of winter this early that the cold wants to settle back in for March and April. Let’s have a crazy snow filled February and let spring get in here.

  6. Formerly from KY says:

    My Air Force weather Officer buddy says that the Eastern Pacific Osilliation(EPO) is going very negative four the first 2 weeks of February.He said that the Eastern half of the country will be very cold during this time period.

  7. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Going to get interesting as it’s very likely the Gulf moisture along with the Arctic disturbances will give the Ohio Valley several chances of those heavy wet snowstorms, that could exceed over fifteen inches. Something to look forward to, if you are a snow lover like me.

  8. Rich says:

    Let’s hope we have a snowy month of February and March. BOTS!!

  9. JJTeach says:

    Sounds like fun times ahead!

  10. Not buying a cold February just yet. 0z Euro/EPS looks warm. MJO pumping in phase 6-7. Looks more likely we’ll see a western trough/eastern ridge pattern take place. If not, the main cold dump with be well west of here. Still could capitalize on snow ops…but beware Feb climo in La Nina winters.

  11. BubbaG says:

    Cherry picking models by folks begins in 1, 2, 3…. 🙂 😉

  12. Jimmie says:

    Noooooooo. I got my cold&snow fix a couple weeks ago. I’m ready for Spring.

  13. Rodger in Dodger says:

    The most wonderful thing about the weather is that it might be the only thing mankind has not figured out how to manipulate. We get what we get and nothing can be done about it – thank goodness! Rodger in Dodger

    • Schroeder says:

      We hope the weather is brought to us by Mother Nature. But, sometimes I am a skeptic on the subject of weather modification.

  14. nasdaq says:

    Euro/EPS looks mighty toasty after the brief Feb 2-5 cold snap

    • Prelude says:

      nasdaq, you need to look at the whole picture. The operational Euro does show warm but the Euro’s own ensembles scream cold. The operational Euro is the outlier and the Euro’s own ensembles don’t agree. February in general looks to be cold for the majority of the month. There’s plenty of support to back that up.

  15. Schroeder says:

    Where did all of you learn how to read the weather models ? I tried to make since out of them but with no success. Seems like a lot of mathematics in meteorology, another subject I’m not understanding. I wonder if there is a book called ” Understanding Meteorology for dummies “, because I sure could use it. I’ll tell you what I will look it up right now on line. LOL

    • Schroeder says:

      Found it. It’s called ” Weather for Dummies “. I don’t think I will purchase it because I hate to read. I’ll just try to learn from all of you on this forum.

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