Changes Brewing

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gorgeous looking day out there, with Friday looking and feeling even better. This blast of milder takes us into the start of the weekend, but a blast of cold follows that up to end the weekend. Overall, big changes are brewing as we close out January and say hello to February.

I have no real changes to my thoughts on the evolution of the pattern, but wanted to show a few things that continue to stand out.

The trough digging in behind the weekend rain, continues to be more impressive as we get closer…

That quick deepening of the trough can lead to periods of light snow and snow showers from Sunday night through Tuesday. The models are just now beginning to pick up on this. Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian…

Watch for this period to show up more and more as we move through the weekend.

The cold early next week may hold long enough to prevent anything more than a one day rebound in temps, before the arctic front arrives next Thursday. I like the possibility of a wave of low pressure to develop along the front, giving us a winter weather threat.

The models are consistent in showing this…

As the arctic air continues to press in across the country in the first few weeks of February, an active southern storm track is going to try and develop at the same time…

Cold and snow lovers should be excited with this kind of a pattern, and it’s one that may try to linger into early March. Your friendly weatherdude is torn on this pattern, as my spring thoughts fight with my snowy heart. 🙂

I will have updates on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and back here on KWC this evening.

Make it a good one and take care.

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17 Responses to Changes Brewing

  1. Justin says:

    yeah, boy that feb 5th storm it’s showing, man… Gulf low w/ cold air already in place. Long way off in voodoo land tho.

  2. Schroeder says:


  3. Debbie says:

    Bring it!!!
    Was just reading a social media post from one of our local mets in the Ville (not the over-analyzing one I don’t like)calling out another local met for showing all the models spitting out enormous totals in the next couple of weeks and getting everyone in a tizzy. Everyone knows that models haven’t been performing too great lately and in recent years, every forecast has amounted to being a “nowcast” for the most part. Rodger said it best earlier about the wx gonna do what it’s gonna do! But hey….they’re sure fun to look at and hope it comes to fruition!

  4. BengalFan says:

    Chris, always Go with your Heart!!!

    Spring will be here in April!!!!

  5. Justin says:

    yeah, it’s silly to be posting any kind of totals 7 to 10 days out even if all models are in agreement. At this point, good mets like Chris are just posting info about the pattern they see emerging.

  6. Jimbo says:

    Snow through February is good. Hopefully we get a heavy one sometime during the month. Once March arrives I am over it until next Thanksgiving.

  7. Kim Curtsinger says:

    Completely done with snow & cold. Spring can’t get here soon enough.

  8. Carlene Abner says:

    I’m getting cabin fever but I could handle one good 6+ snow fall.. lol

  9. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. As a snow lover, that pattern does excite me! But I’m not sure I can take another 200$ electric bill! But I will take the snow if you can get it to come a callin’. Gonna be fun to see what happens anyway. Have a great afternoon!

    • SpaceGhost says:

      Try $400 per month on a year-round budget. Radiant ceiling heating coils may have been the rage with 1970s electricity prices, but now it’s a second mortgage…

  10. Kevin says:

    Did KU increase rates and us not know it?? How’s everyone s electric bill so high? Its not like the heat ran constantly.

    • Debbie says:

      I don’t know if KU does like LG&E or not, but sometimes if the meter reader can’t read it manually, they will sometimes “estimate” it, which usually is higher. If you look on your bill at the usage itemization,it should tell you if it was an actual reading or an estimated. We have gas from LG&E and electric from Salt River, and ours was $107 & $90, respectively, for Dec. Doesn’t sound quite as enormous as I’ve heard of some, but our home is “big enough”, but also well-insulated and we kept it at a reasonable level, and honestly, that’s higher than than we’ve ever paid for basically not even a couple weeks’ worth of real cold, not even when we lived in the older home. I think it was estimated because I never saw the meter dude come by, because I have to let him in the gate.

  11. Dee says:

    Thanks Chris! Sounds interesting!

  12. Terry says:

    I am probably in agreement with about 80% + on here when I state that I am fine with snow until we get into March. When I start seeing buds on trees, flowers and those first over 70 degree days, I get more like CB about wanting Spring over SNOW, but mother nature will do what it wants. As Coffee Lady and a few others in the past have mentioned before, we can even have giant April snowstorms, all be it rare with data showing around every 30 to 50 years or so events. I was only 4 during that historic 1987 April “Dogwood” snowstorm and don’t remember it: I have only seen less than inch on any April day since that storm. People even state that we have had big May snowstorms but no data in KY shows anything more than 5 inches has ever fallen anywhere in the state in over 100 years of record keeping, so I think people get March and May confused!

  13. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Groundhog gonna be buried if the new GFS verifies:

    Rodger in Dodger

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