Good evening, folks. We are wrapping up a pretty nice Sunday across much of the region, but Old Man Winter is about to throw some shots at us for the week ahead.
The first shot is a light one, slated to arrive later Monday into early Tuesday. That’s when a cold front works in from northwest to southeast. Temps may spike to the 40s ahead of it, but quickly drop as the front sweeps in. Much of the precipitation with this is back in the cold air, leading to light snow and snow showers.
Watch this action show up well on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM…
Light accumulations are possible, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. Slick travel may also develop as we head into Monday night and early Tuesday.
The late week system continues to be in a holding pattern until we can fully get all the energy onshore and properly sampled. That will then be ingested into the models, giving them a better handle on how things play out Thursday and Friday.
The new GFS is trying to find the system again…
One reason the GFS is faster and weaker with this system is because it’s being pushed by a system coming in right behind it. The GFS tries to bring another snow threat by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday…
A new model from Germany has recently become more accessible. I have been watching it for a few weeks now, and it seems to be a reliable tool. Granted it’s the new kid in town, but the ICON Model looks like the Canadian from earlier…
I will try to really hone in on this setup later tonight into Monday.
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Would love to see some more snow here in nw ky but I question the Canadian model you never hear a met say the Canadian nailed it what about it what does anybody else think but I will also say we’ve had a really dry winter I would be interested to see how far below normal we are for the winter so far on moisture
Joe Cioffi, a met in New York, says that the Canadian model hasn’t been right since the Battle of Hastings. In a way this crappiness is surprising, because the rgem model is a very very good short range model.
LOL that’s a good one, made me chuckle 🙂
Thanks for the update Chris. Looks like the blog is going to be an interesting place this week. Whatever happens with the late week storm, I appreciate everything you do. Have a good evening,
I am thinking the switchover from rain to snow Thursday into Friday is going to happen too slowly to get a lot of snow. Just a guess though.
For us maybe, but Ohio or Tennessee might get mainly snow. Kentucky is the fence.
There is no fence.
A model from Germany..haha
Lol
Things are bad when you have to whip out the ole German model..lol
Sad but may be better than our GFS that so many weather forecasters are obsessed with!
Lucy’s loves cherry picking. Well, that and spotting footballs for model watchers 🙂
RAIN mainly folks, snow on the end,
I’ll wait to see what a real weather forecaster says.
Doesn’t take a real weather forecaster to state what the latest models are currently showing (and yes, what Til I said is in fact what the models are showing)…
What Rolo said…
But the amount of snow on the end is what could be interesting.
Chris, thank you for all you do. There is NO one, that I know of, that puts as much into this as you do. The reason I visit your site 3 times a day is because you have something new to show 3 times a day. Any change in guidance whatsoever, you share with us. Any change in your insight, you share with us. Please keep doing what you’re called to do. thank you so much. Lewis County Tennessee
Amen, ditto, and bravo to that! Well said!
It’s going to be interesting!!!