Good Super Bowl Sunday, everybody. The forecast continues to play out as we’ve talked about, with our morning snows going over to rain, and another round of light snow tonight. This can put down additional light accumulations, causing some travel issues.
It’s a system coming in from the west-northwest and is carrying some very cold air with it. Light snow develops this evening and continues into early Monday across the east. With temps dropping into the teens, slick roads may develop.
Widespread coatings to an inch will be possible. Here’s the Hi Res NAM…
The GFS…
Regional radar will help you track this into Kentucky…
Another light snow maker brushes the state Monday night, especially in the north. A much stronger system then targets us late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will bring a swath of rain, freezing rain and snow across the Commonwealth…
GFS
Canadian…
We are walking a very fine line with temperatures on this one, with a degree or two being the difference between heavy rain and significant freezing rain.
I’ll update this evening. Enjoy the afternoon and take care.
It’s always been said that of you want snow in our area, we need a low to track south. Both models show a low cutting through the southern apps then through NC. Why does it continue to rain? Does the low need to be in Alabama?
Thanks Chris. Hope to see some snow before winter is over. But if not we’ll then, bring on warmer temps!
100 percent rain Tuesday into Wednesday! If it snows in ashland 1/2 inch I will eat my wife’s cooking for a solid week without complaining!!
How well does she cook? 😀
Snow? Perhaps we got dumped on in Richmond before I woke up and then the rain washed it all away? I only saw the lightest dusting this morning as it was raining…
There is always the next one…
Am I the only one who would just like to see two or three days in a row of sunny skies and 50’s or even 60’s like we had last winter? Even the snowy Midwest and Northeast has sunshine between storms. We’ve had 1/2 day of sun in the past 3 weeks here. UGH!
Grey and Mud.
From taking care of livestock for many years… we use to always say that Kentucky had 5 seasons: spring, summer, fall, winter, and MUD. Which very appropriately rhymes with ugh.
Rain Tuesday/Wednesday is the consensus across the board with all mets….takes the suspense out of it….come on spring type weather
I assure you that is not the case.
The NAM has been consistent with a decent snowfall north of i-64.
If it’s not snow for central or southern KY, bet on the model 😉
Trust me I am not all in on any model. But it is showing there is a chance for some decent snowfall for the majority of the state.
How is north of I64 the majority? Seems a third or so is north of I64. 🙂
Exactly some forget there is a part of KY below I64
What do u think will happen…more specific…chance of rain for Richmond ky?
Chris, This looks like a significant snowstorm for Kentucky. A lot of Gulf moisture, and with cold air aloft, sure bet for all snow. I hope this one pans out, and I think it will happen.
This storm coming is the best chance for a major snow I have seen all winter. Everything is coming together with the positive southern branch and the very negative northern branch colliding over southern Arkansas and forecast to move through the Tennessee Valley.
Freezing rain is usually an overrunning event, where the cold air is in place and a warm front to the south is stationary. This storm is different with a lot of cold air aloft, which transfers to a snow event.
Does that mean northeast Tennessee might get some action other than rain?
Need that bad boy to keep on moving through the Tennessee Valley and we are in business! I live 9 miles north of Louisville and like where I’m sitting at the moment to get a good snow. Have just shy of 6 inches this season and would LOVE to get to that total with this system.
Can’t wait for the gloomy days to give way to some sunshine. It’s been a uneventful winter for the most part. Some decent looking chances a week (or even 2 days out) only to see very little snow for much of the state. Looking forward to seeing some 50+ degree highs.
Well local Mets here say freezing rain a good bet
That’s that fence CB was talking about. Seems somewhere north of Kentucky river could get some ice.
No fence.
Looks like a healthy snow band coming into Ky. From the NW on the radar.
That’s what I was thinking. Any chance this band over produces for the Ashland area?
No
12z Canadian model has central and northern KY getting between 1/2″ and 1″ of ice Wednesday. 12z GFS has those areas getting between 1/4″ and 1/2″. I hate it when they’re in that kind of agreement. Yuck.
Ice is usually correct. North of Kentucky river is the usual smack zone, but it has gone further south before. Hopefully nobody gets it, whatever the case. Models as usually good with ice and rain- just not the fluffy white stuff.
You don’t want that run of the Canadian to pan out. That’s a crippling ice storm for areas from Louisville through Lex and towards Louisa.
Better off with rain or snow.
Canadian may be wrong. It might not be. We can’t say it’s wrong just because we don’t want it to be right. That’s not how it works.
It concerns me because it’s showing so much ice—and it’s not like the NAM which has a tendency to overestimate precipitation amounts. I think the liquid QPF coming from the Canadian is pretty accurate. The question is, how accurate are its thermal profiles for this timeframe.
My snow was rain all rain and looks like the next few systems will be the same if taking the models verbatim.
Not so much a comment, as an observation, but WHY do you so avidly follow a blog for weather, only to bash the author every day?
For real though… have you nothing better to do with your time? If your opinions are so adverse, maybe take to writing your own blog. It just annoys me to see Mr. Bailey take so much time out to do this only to be torn down by a bunch of bad attitude wannabes.
Another non-event
Please study the maps and you will change your mind.
Everything is north of KY according to the models.
It looks like we’re going to have to teach some people here a lesson between the difference of what the models show and what is actually happening….and *not* during a nowcast situation, which seems to be what happens whenever exceedingly bad weather hits here…because nobody can bring themselves to believe any really bad weather is possible. Especially in the winter. You cannot rely on the models 100% of the time. Might not be the case with this storm, but they are not bulletproof.
Rain is an event as well
Just cloudy and drizzling in Crittenden. Hoping for snow later tonight!!
We got light to moderate snow this morning here in Southern Ohio. Enough to have the snow plows out. It did warm up and melt a lot of it.
I’d say we got 2 inches total. Never did get below freezing. Melted some as it hit the ground. Very pretty though. Stuck to all the trees.
I see flood watches in our future here in southeast ky..
This is a typical fence event with a NW trend all over it. Going to be rain for most of the state with a small Ohio River corridor in freezing rain and sleet. Snow for southern IN. Hope I am wrong and we all get snow, but I just don’t see it.
GFS isn’t giving any love to southern Indiana either. Nothing yet to get excited about.
As always with these southern storms it’s a battle between the cold and warm air and where that line sets up.
I keep watching that beautiful line of snow moving towards us from the west and I just know it’s going to hit that Kentucky border where we’re currently sitting at 40 degrees and just disappear into nothingness. Blah.
Hello
Flooding rain look possible somewhere in Kentucky with Wednesday storm.
I like how the snow shield is eroding as it moves east.
Were you expecting something different?
Nope just like I was expecting nothing but rain this morning