Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on the storm moving in tonight and Wednesday. Overall, my thoughts have not changed and the models are now lining up with our thinking from the past several days.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for much of the region into Wednesday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upgrade to a warning for a few areas…

The Advisory matches up well with the area we’ve been highlighting for the potential of freezing rain and some snow…

The GFS freezing rain forecast matches up very well and shows some local .50″+ amounts…

Areas of northern Kentucky have the best chance at seeing accumulating snows from this, with a few inches possible…

Most areas will switch to some light snow as this mess comes to an end from west to east on Wednesday.

The other aspect of this storm is heavy rain. Local high water issues are possible across Kentucky, especially the south and east. Amounts of 2.5″ will be possible in less than 12 hours…

Those kinds of numbers on a semi-frozen ground can produce extensive runoff that can cause some flooding. Flash Flood Watches would be more than justified in this setup.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another blog update this evening.

Make it a good one and take care.


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89 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Ha ha Chris! I believe Jackson did put out at least an advisory. At least I got that notification. I really hope you guys under the gun get snow instead of ice. Will be watching your updates. Be careful out there, weather friends.

  2. Snow says:

    Is it just me or does that advisory map look weird? Everyone around Wayne county WV area has an advisory but it’s not hitting us?

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      It may look a bit odd to you since you do not have the credentials necessary to have the capability of building snowfall, ice, sleet, rain models that Chris puts together for us on a daily basis. So, it may not be just you, but have faith in these models. Chris has spent years of his education studying weather, and he now has years of experience; neither of us have the skill-set necessary for even imagining an “expected” mental map of what “we” think will/should happen.

      • Snow says:

        Uh, what? I was just asking if that model is correct and it will hit everywhere but Wayne CO?

        • KBinNKY says:

          If you’re talking about advisory map Chris posted at first, that’s a NWS map, whatever NWS location is responsible for Wayne Co. didn’t think they needed included in the advisory for whatever reason. But, you’ll see odd stuff all of the time coming out of NWS on advisories.

        • Jimbo says:

          You are in the Charleston/Huntington area, like me. Which means you are virtually guaranteed all rain. It takes a very rare storm to deliver mire than a dusting for us.

      • Stormtracker_WV says:

        Why do you keep coming back to be mean?

        • Stormtracker_WV says:

          That comment directed to whoever is posting as “Admiral Ackbar”–I don’t appreciate your mean-spirited comments.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Mean spirited? I always appreciate the work Chris has done on this block, and I love the detailed analysis that he puts within his posts. Why does everyone question his posts, curse his name, and complain when the weather does not pan out the way that they (people without weather degrees) think that it should?

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Again, it’s going to be close–you are right on the edge of some nasty weather, and that map may change before the weather gets started.

  3. Drew says:

    I do not understand why Boyd county is not in this advisory.

  4. Skiwee says:

    It is the NWS out of Charleston. What do you expect? Lol

  5. BubbaG says:

    That there salt is going DOWN!! πŸ™‚

  6. BubbaG says:

    Why no threat mode for that much potential ice for north of I64? Seems odd…. Me confused.

  7. Snowbi One Kenobi says:

    Some Louisville Mets really downplaying event. Some even talking all rain as far north as Louisville. GFS showing greatest ice potential right over Louisville metro.

  8. feederband says:

    NWS conference call at 2:30. Will see what they have to say and go from there.

  9. Cold Rain says:

    Looks like the hype train is started about the upcoming Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event..Supposedly around Feb.10th -12th..In case you didn’t know that’s the splitting of the polar vortex..Supposedly effects the east 3rd week of Feb. going into March..All kinds of good winter things are going to happen..lol..Chasing unicorn’s as usual..

  10. Todd says:

    As Chris said yesterday, this may become a now casting situation?

    • BubbaG says:

      Get your rain coat and galoshes πŸ™‚

    • Debbie says:

      Yep, I heard a little something mentioned this morning that they may end up relying more on ground reports when it begins. It sounded more to me like they still weren’t too sure where the ice window was going to set up. A mile or three either way could make a big difference.

  11. Snow_Mama says:

    I just want to know if I need to stock up on milk in Lexington. Yay or nay?

  12. Teacher Nate says:

    Fleming County in a Winter Storm Warning via Jackson…looks like we are the only one out of the Jackson area that I can tell.

  13. Oh Hail No! says:

    The RAP model has been showing 6+” of snow for Cinci and Covington for all of it’s last several runs. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018020618/021/sn10_acc.conus.png

  14. Oh Hail No! says:

    HRRR only goes until 7am and it shows a band of 4-6″ snow over Cinci and NOKY in the same spot as the RAP. Short range models may be onto something up here. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018020618/018/sn10_acc.us_ov.png

  15. BubbaG says:

    Ruh Roh! Upgraded to WSW for north of Kentucky river, just as mentally challenged me suggested the main action would be a few days ago…. Could there be a smackdown after all? Genuine question, since I have no clue πŸ™‚

    Hoping not, since ice is lame.

  16. Drew says:

    Even if this starts as ice/sleet when it transitions to rain wouldn’t it melt all of the ice by morning commute?

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, but IF ice is .25″ or greater, could have weaker trees and limbs hitting power lines and then the heavy rain & some wind weakening others. If .5″ or greater, double the trouble and non weak trees can split or fall. Point being, the damage would be done before the rain commences.

      Colder trend equals bad news- if pans out. Big IF, of course.

      • Jimmie says:

        So far, we’re about 5 degrees colder than the NOAA forecast for today. That has me concerned.

        • Drew says:

          Thanks Bubba..So let me get this straight.. the temps seem to be trending colder than what was originally expected; thus, giving the CHANCE of more ice?

          • Jimmie says:

            Right. The models seem convinced that the low pressure center is pulling in enough warm air aloft (WAA) to melt any precip that falls. So air temperature at the ground will determine rain or ice. The colder it is, the more of what liquid hits the ground freezes on contact. Freezing rain at, say, 28F is a very different beast from freezing rain at, say, 31F.

            Since we seem to be running about 5 deg below forecast around here, it makes me wonder if our forecast for mostly rain won’t turn into mostly ice.

            • Drew says:

              Thanks Jimmie.. it’s 35 here in Ashland. I’m not sure what it was forecasted to be though. Where are you located?

  17. Debbie says:

    WSW is for 1/4 in. ice that COULD accumulate. Heaviest accum’s expected to be from Shelby,Franklin on eastward to north of Lex. NWS also says they will be “tweaking” the expected forecast as the event starts later this evening. School delays make more sense as it clears up fairly well tomorrow morning as temps rise. I still think it’s worth watching tonight if you’re on either side of the WWA. Hopefully it won’t create too many problems for any of us!

  18. Formerly from KY says:

    Can you imagine if the cold air would have stayed in place, some people would have gotten up to 2 feet with even a 10-1 ratio.

    • BubbaG says:

      I think it would mainly be more like the big ice storm almost ten years ago. Big ice followed by several inches of snow.

      • Dr WX says:

        I remember that one no power for 7 days this setup does have the potential for a repeat. Chris precip map is dead on for the way the type of precip and locations for each normally pans out for Ky.

  19. B H says:

    Where I live in Jackson County Ohio we were upgraded to a winter storm warning about 20 minutes ago. Snow ice and freezing rain expected.

  20. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    I will be happy to take rain this time.

  21. Chris Mercer says:

    Ice is never nice. Would rather see all rain than an ice storm.

  22. BengalFan says:

    Perfect fence splitting the state.

  23. Todd says:

    Temp. in Frankfort is 36, forecast was for 42?
    And yes, we under a Winter Storm warning.

  24. KBinNKY says:

    WSW for NKY and South OH now too

  25. Dara says:

    I’m flying out of Cinci Thursday morning but will be driving there from EKY. How fast should they be able to clear the main roads?

    • Cold Rain says:

      I would think roads should be fine by Thursday morning..Just give yourself some extra time..Haven’t looked at what temps are supposed to be Wed. night since models fail on temps also..

  26. Snowqueen says:

    Any chance that warning can drop down and include Anderson County?!?! Hoping for no school tomorrow

  27. Snow Loving Librarian says:

    East side of Louisville near the Oldham County line only reached 35 today. The forecast was for a high of 41. Will be interesting to see what really does happen tonight.

  28. Formerly from KY says:

    I was wondering what has happened to Schroeder not seen any post from him.

    • BubbaG says:

      He guaranteed 100% snow for the wholes state. I think it is an honor thing. He self banished! Now THAT”S self control πŸ™‚

      • Troy says:

        Actually, (no joke) I think he has posted in this thread under another name and an alter ego… Sentence structure and other similarities are overwhelmingly similar to Schroeder’s “style” of writing. See if you can pick out who I’m talking about! (hint…only been posting 2-3 days now) lol

  29. Drew says:

    Can we expects some cancellations and delays tomorrow? Or will the rain melt any ice we get beforehand?

    • Snow Loving Librarian says:

      From what I’m seeing from the Mets in Louisville, the precipitation will start in Louisville around midnight and go through about 7 a.m. (working it’s way to your area of Ashland). The temperatures stay at or below freezing until around 1 p.m. and then reach about 34 for a high. So, considering where you are, what falls won’t melt much is my take until the afternoon. I’d say delays are a good possibility.

  30. brandon says:

    this will be more widespread. today was supposed to be 45 and it got to 36.. its 35 now

  31. BubbaG says:

    Wow! Bill Meck of all folks is calling for the potential of up to .75″ of ice for areas north of I64. That is unusual for him to be higher than CB.

  32. MelT says:

    Temperature drop from 35 to 32 at Paducah.

    • Snow Loving Librarian says:

      Down to 32 now in East Louisville, too. So, it’s dropped 3 degrees in the past hour.

      • Rachel says:

        Yep — I must be near you! I posted on twitter that though the apps are still showing Louisville sitting at 35 or 36 (and it may be that in some areas of Louisville), it’s down to 32 on my deck in East Louisville (I’m on the Snyder side of J-Town). Definitely going to be interesting!

        • Snow Loving Librarian says:

          I’m near Norton Commons. I’d say those temps are near the airport and closer downtown. It’s always warmer there.

  33. LOUTeach says:

    Louisville, KY is in the Advisory.I live a stone’s throw from Simpsonville, which is in the WSW area. Things in my neighborhood (far East LOU) should be interesting tonight. We shall see I suppose.

  34. Drew says:

    With all these low temps things could get interesting real quick

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