Tracking A Wintry Mix and Another Heavy Rain Threat

Good Monday, everyone. We have a wintry mix causing a few travel issues to start the day, but the main focus going forward is on the heavy rain threats lining up. The overall setup looks to make Kentucky the target for additional flooding issues over the next few weeks.

Let’s start with the messy morning for travelers. A mixture of light freezing rain, light snow and some sleet is working across the state. This is putting down an icy glaze, so please be careful on the roads. Things will improve later in the day as temps go above freezing.

I will get to your tracking tools in a moment.

As I mentioned earlier, the focus going forward is on a the potential for more flooding rains. The setup over the next few weeks looks to put Kentucky sandwiched between mild air in the southeast and cold air to our north and northwest. As these two air masses fight it out, that should lead to a very active storm track across our region.

While I expect some winter weather systems to try and sneak into the region, my concern is we end up with multiple heavy rain events. That would put our region right in the bullseye of potential high water issues…

Given the flooding we are still dealing with in some areas, the bluegrass state (and some of the surrounding states) won’t be able to handle much more water. Unfortunately, more is on the way and it comes this week.

Showers increase by Wednesday, with a rumble of thunder possible…

This sets the stage for the next heavy rain treat coming Thursday into Friday. A cold front drops in from the northwest and slows down, allowing for waves of low pressure to develop along it.

A general 1″-3″ of rain may fall across  the state with this system, leading to another high water threat. Colder air should catch the back of the rain shield, switching it over to some light snow.

We will also have to watch for another wave of low pressure developing over the weekend, but there’s a much bigger signal showing up early next week. That may be another major rain maker around here.

Here are your icy morning tracking toys…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good Monday and take care.


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26 Responses to Tracking A Wintry Mix and Another Heavy Rain Threat

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    It is a cold rain February on steroids.

  2. Formerly from KY says:

    Looks like another lackluster winter for snowfall in Kentucky once again. As for me in Northwestern Pennsylvania have recorded 96″ of snowfall this winter where I am, My Uncle who lives in Erie, PA has recorded 166″ of snowfall which is a recorded for Erie.

    • Ray says:

      We’ve barely seen any snow fall this season in Northern Virginia. My comment below has more details. I’m from Kentucky also

    • Schroeder says:

      Record snowfall for Erie, Pennsylvania this year, can be explained by the longer open water on lake Erie, thus making for warmer water temperatures on the Lake. The surface winds along with colder than normal disturbances in the upper level winds coming right over the great city of Erie, resulted in excessive lake effect snows to occur.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        I know all how lake effect snow fall works being I’m a scooter for the NWS. But Thanks anyway Schroeder. Everybody have a good day.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      A lackluster winter in terms of snow will make for a wonderful, sunny, summer with perfect temperatures.

      • Schroeder says:

        What is your idea of perfect summer temperatures ? Kentucky summer temperatures vary from one end of the state to the other. The west is much warmer than in the east / southeast, with the northeast section of the state being the coolest. This however depends on where the summer time high pressure sets up in the Ohio Valley.

  3. TeachLou says:

    Woke up to find that JCPS and other surrounding school districts are closed today. Was not expecting that at all. Thanks for the updates and great information as always CB!

  4. Ray says:

    In Northern Virginia, we’ve barely seen any snow fall since I’ve lived here. When I use to live in Kentucky as I was originally born and raised there, I remember having much bigger snow fall amounts. Since moving, I still been keeping up with the weather in Kentucky along with my weather here in Northern Virginia. One thing I can say… as little as the snow fall has been in KY this season, yall have seen way more than we have in Northern VA. I would say our totals for this winter thus far is about an inch. But… When it comes to rain, we usually see way more than we ever really need. But right now, we’re in a drought and we need it, but not the flooding rain we’re currently getting.

    • Schroeder says:

      All winter your area of Virginia has been dominated by a strong blocking high pressure in the Atlantic. This is the reason for the lack of snow events and the present drought. I also notice that Nor’Easters are not developing as they usually do this time of the year. Also this can be explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation being in the positive phase most of this winter and also the Arctic Oscillation in the positive phase. However this could all change within days.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      Whether people want to admit it or not, Global Climate Change has affected weather patterns significantly all around the world. I am not stating that global climate change is entirely man made, but one cannot deny the science and concrete facts that the global climate has changed since the 1930s.

  5. Ned Stark says:

    I’m just curious as to what phenomenon is responsible for the more mild temperatures. It was my understanding a few weeks back that the models were signaling our coldest air of the winter in February. What has held the arctic air at bay here in Kentucky?

  6. Schroeder says:

    I’ll try to answer your question as to why we haven’t had much winter. My thoughts are that the westerlies are unusually high in the upper levels of the atmosphere, therefore keeping the Arctic air in Canada and the northern third of the United States. Blocking high pressure ridges along the west coast and the east coast are also factors. And with a weak ENSO La nina phase we have a colder north, mild and wet in the Ohio Valley and drought in the central plains and along the southern states. It is forecast by NOAA that the weak La nina will transfer to the ENSO- neutral phase, which may slow down the westerlies and allow colder air to enter the United States later this winter and the beginning of our spring season.

  7. SHAAK says:

    Roads are icy here in Bardstown. Almost undriveable.

    • Admiral Ackbar says:

      In terms of the ability to drive on the roads, what type of vehicle were you able to successfully navigate away from your home? This may give others a better perspective on whether or not to risk traveling out for the day.

      • Andy Rose says:

        Everyone’s ability to drive and their opinion of their own driving skills will vary as well as all vehicles vary tires matter as well.

        • Admiral Ackbar says:

          Understandable, but I was responding on the notion of the fact that SHAAK was referring to the “average driver with average driving skills” – the typical case.

  8. Andy Rose says:

    The flood gage in Barbourville is now showing the river slowly going down. It ended up going 10 ft above flood stage less than 3 ft away from closing the wall.

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