Tracking The Increased Heavy Rain Threat

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our wet weather pattern continues to strongly show up, and is likely to cause issues over the next few weeks. Rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to high water problems as we roll forward, so you really need to stay alert in the coming days.

Our Wednesday is pretty wet with gusty showers moving across the state…

Thursday is a very windy and warm day, with highs reaching deep into the 60s for many. Areas across the south and west may see readings topping out from 70-75 if they can get enough sunshine. The main threat for showers and thunderstorms will be across the northern half of the state.

Heavy rain and thunder rolls in from north to south Thursday night into Friday. This is when we will need to watch for some local high water issues, but I don’t expect this to be widespread. There’s even the chance for some flakes on the back side.

A second low then develops and rolls our way on Saturday, brining more heavy rain and the potential for a swath of snow in the north. The GFS is FINALLY seeing this…

The GFS is also picking up on the snow in the north…

The setup for next week continues to run toward the pattern we have been outlining. A deep trough develops across the western part of the country, with a springtime ridge of high pressure across the southeast. That puts our region in between the two, with repeat heavy rains on top of us…

This can cause significant flooding and river flooding issues to develop across the entire state and surrounding states.

The CFS shows this supper wet pattern lingering through March. Check out the rainfall forecast over the next 45 days…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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20 Responses to Tracking The Increased Heavy Rain Threat

  1. wayne giffin says:

    chris will the tug river be out of its banks again in the kermit wv area with all of this heavy rain keep up the good work your a good weather man

  2. Formerly from KY says:

    Like my Air Force Weather Officer buddy had been telling me we are going to be locked into this weather pattern into early spring. He said that flooding will be a concern and that their are probably zero chances of snow returning.

    • Schroeder says:

      I’m still holding out on one of those’s late heavy wet snows, even if it is not in the forecast.

      • Terry says:

        This would be a good year for one….I remember 1993 was a pretty dull winter until the March Superstorm slammed Harlan. The majority of the 1992-1993 annual snowfall came from the blizzard with Harlan, in the valley mind you, around 30 inches! I was only 10 years old but remember it well, such an awesome storm:)

        • TennMark says:

          At least in Louisville, early 1993 had a different pattern. My wife has relatives in Louisville and they remember the March 93 blizzard only doing a glancing blow to the Derby City with very little snow even if still lots of cold gusty winds. But Feb 1993 is Louisville second (?) snowiest Feb on record with the two biggest events being 7.1 inches and roughly 8 inches.

          I was nine and living in Morristown TN when the March 93 Superstorm struck, yes what an experience! A neighboring house had snow piled up almost to window level! Our seldom used fireplace sure came in handy as my parents, sister, brother and I (and pets) would bunch up by the fire for warmth while listening to battery radios.

  3. Terry says:

    As I am getting ready for work, we are getting slammed in Harlan with a band of very heavy rain….already .25 inches in less than an hour. This current warm front alone could give SE KY a quick inch today or more. Going to be a very interesting weekend!

  4. WM says:

    Not happy about all this rain and the flooding and mud it’s going to create, but I’ll take it over sub-freezing temps for weeks like we had earlier this winter. My power bill was huge. Thanks Chris for all you do!

  5. bgbecky says:

    Spring has SPRUNG!!! Bring it on!!!

  6. Bobt says:

    Glad that February didnt turn out temp wise as advertised by the early models. Now if we could just see some sunshine.

    • Troy says:

      Would be nice, but sunshine has been just as elusive this winter as snow. I just hope the sun wins the battle before May (preferably March).

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