A Spring Pattern Brings A Flood Threat

Good Sunday, everyone. We have been in a very wet pattern for the past week and change and this soggy setup shows no signs of letting up. As a matter of fact, as thunderstorms join the mix, the flood threat actually increases for the week ahead and beyond.

Our Sunday looks mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds and temps on the increase. Highs will be near 50 in the far north, to around 60 in the far south and west.

Clouds increase quickly tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms rumbling through…

Temps rise all night long as a strong southwesterly wind kicks in. Highs on Monday make a run at 70 degrees and hit deep into the upper 70s and low 80s on Tuesday. Record highs and all time February record highs are a possibility. #teamspring

In recent weeks, I’ve been hitting the flood setup VERY hard, trying to get everyone aware of this super soaker of a setup. I put this map out more than a week ago…

My updated version of that keeps Kentucky in the bullseye, but expands that southwest into the lower Mississippi River Valley…

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will target Kentucky during this time, especially during the second half of next week. This can lead to all modes of flooding in our region. Our rivers are going to be especially vulnerable to flooding as we go through the next few weeks and into the spring.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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19 Responses to A Spring Pattern Brings A Flood Threat

  1. Virgil E. says:


  2. Chris Mercer says:

    Lexington could well wind up with one of the 10 warmest February’s on record. The warmest February on record occurred way back in 2017–that’s right–last year!

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, I can only remember three February’s and March’s where we actually had snow on the ground for more than three weeks. The years were 1970, 1977, 1978 respectfully. Those springs that followed were beautiful and were followed by a great growing season, with near record harvest. The forecast for 80+ degrees on Tuesday, along with the chance of more flooding rains can only lead to an agricultural and horticultural disaster. I feel sorry for the farmers who have to put up with this uncertainly in our current weather pattern. Maybe next year we will have a longer winter, which always leads to a great growing season and Autumn harvest. For now we will just have to take the weather as it comes and hope for the best.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Dis too much.

  5. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I hope we can have a couple of months of jacket weather before the extreme heat returns.
    I guess winter has retired for about 9 months.

  6. Bobt says:

    Loving the temps. Just need to make sure the sun is still there. It’s been in hiding for a couple of weeks and looks like it’s going to hide for a few more.

  7. Cold Rain says:

    Interesting watching models tank the NAO going into March..Believe the Gefs has -5..The long long range operational is hinting also..Probably won’t happen but we will see..

    • Formerly from KY says:

      My buddy said it doesn’t matter if there is a negative NAO as long as the strong Bermuda High persist the warm and rainy pattern will persist. He said this pattern would last until mid April.

      • Schroeder says:

        If the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation go negative the westerlies in Canada will lessen and the Polar air will drop south into the central plains and into the Ohio Valley. The Bermuda High pressure system, currently in the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for our current weather. This high pressure system shifts west and east and is always present.

      • Cold Rain says:

        He may be right but still if the NAO tanks as models are showing and blocking sets up as being shown it’s possible for the East to still get a decent snowfall..It’s not bone chilling cold but would be cold enough to get one of those heavy wet snows that can do some damage..I know its long range and will have to wait and see but at the moment it looks interesting..

  8. Rachel says:

    Y’all and your #teamspring… Seems like we’ve been having spring for the past couple weeks now and there’s no end in sight… I have a feeling some of these school systems will end up with more flood days than snow days and still be in school well into June. Personally if it’s gonna be winter I’d rather have snow!

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