A Significant Flood Threat Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Flooding is likely to become a significant problem over the next several days, as rounds of showers and thunderstorms target the bluegrass state. Several inches of rain will fall from Wednesday through Sunday, so look out.

Before we get to the flood threat, let’s talk about the historic temps out there today. This will be one of the warmest February days on record for Kentucky. For some cities, it may be the warmest February day. Highs will flirt with 80 degrees, which is a typical high for early June. Wow.

The setup from Wednesday through Sunday will feature a front stalling out across our region, with waves of low pressure working along it…

That front will likely oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley, meaning some wild temperature rides. At times, we could see a 30 degree temp gradient setting up across Kentucky.

If we can get that front to focus farther north and west as one of those lows develops, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The European Model continues to look the most consistent in terms of totals and placement for the heaviest rains…

The GFS appears to be having some MAJOR feedback issues and that’s severely impacting the model’s placement of the heaviest rains. Shocking, I know.

I fully expect Flood Watches to go up today for much of the region. Here are your tracking toys…


I will have updates later today, so check back. Enjoy this historic day of warmth and take care.

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8 Responses to A Significant Flood Threat Ahead

  1. Festus says:

    What are feedback issues?

  2. Schroeder says:

    I really don’t know what Chris means by feedback issues. I have found out this winter that the GFS is not a weather model to be trusted. Everyone enjoy this nice Summer day with forecast highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s. If this current weather pattern last through March it will be a disaster for orchards and horticultural plants. April is either a make or break month as far as late freezes. Being in the nursery business for more than forty years, I figured eight out of ten years there will be a hard freeze in April after a warm March.

  3. Shawon says:

    I remember when Lexington hit 80 degrees in 1996. I was a senior at UK.

    The weather the following March was not real snowy but it was nasty cold.

  4. Michael says:

    If we were to happen to hit 82 degrees, the difference between the record high and record low would be 100 degrees for today (-18 in 2015)

  5. Jeff Hamlin says:

    False start as it may be, I will enjoy the Spring preview.

  6. Schroeder says:

    A large high pressure system in the southeast has extended well to the north and west. The rain showers are riding the northwestern edge of the high pressure ridge at the present. Looks like the kind of weather pattern you would see in May. Maybe this high pressure ridge will hold off the flooding rains ?

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