Almost To Threat Level For Late Sunday

Good afternoon, everyone. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a full blow Winter Storm Threat for late Sunday into early Monday. I’ve talked about our system likely coming a little farther north on the models, and we are seeing that happening right now.

Still, I’d like to see additional model runs this afternoon and evening before going “all in” on this system.

Here are my preliminary areas to watch and some thoughts…

You will notice I put the “High bust potential” on there. That goes both ways. If this system is stronger and farther north, that would be a lot more snow. If the system is weaker and farther south, forget about snow.

The morning runs of the GFS and NAM both went all in on our storm, but disagree on placement and track. Here’s the GFS…

This is ONLY a model snowfall forecast from the GFS…

The NAM has a big time swath of snow, but it’s oriented more west to east across the southern half of the state..

Again, this is ONLY a computer model snowfall forecast from the NAM…

The Canadian continues to trend north and more consolidated with the lead low into the southern Appalachian mountains…

It would appear our old friend, “the famous northwest trend”, is back in business, for now. Let’s see if he’s still around later today.

Regardless of what happens with this low, snow showers and cold temps will kick in for the first half of next week.

Keep checking back for updates, and follow me on twitter for some thoughts (on the snow potential and the Cats ;))

Have a good one and take care.


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14 Responses to Almost To Threat Level For Late Sunday

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    “High bust potential” gives some folks cannon fodder for their comments. 😉

  2. Troy says:

    Seeing is believing and I’m thinking Chris isn’t believing yet either.

  3. Matt says:

    Bring it on, hopefully those runs will verify.

  4. Dottie says:

    Every other big snow has missed southern Fayette County, so this one needs too as well. I am officially on the #teamspring side.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I hope the snowstorm does pan out. It would bring back great memories of the past. Still too early for spring. One would want spring weather in mid to late April for the trees to escape the freeze.

    • Terry says:

      Most trees were already out here in far SE KY and have took a hit with all of these 20s recently….still, it could have been worse if this could would have waited to show up in late March/early April!

  6. MAM says:

    For the Paintsville area, aren’t the temps too warm for it to actually stick?

  7. Cold Rain says:

    Latest Nam..Probably overdone but these types of systems can over produce in certain areas..

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018031018&fh=72&r=us_ov&dpdt=

  8. Jimbo says:

    I am definitely not biting on this one, for the Huntington area. I will go with a 35 degree rain or a total miss. I would really like to be wrong but gotta go with the trends and our history.

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