Heavy Rain Threat For Derby Day

Good Friday, everyone. Kentucky Oaks Day is here and we are tracking scattered showers and storms across the state. This action is associated with a cold front dropping in from the west and northwest. That bad boy slows down, giving some the potential for heavy rains on Kentucky Derby Saturday.

Let’s start with our Oaks Day and roll through the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms will be common today, but this is NOT going to be a washout. A few of the storms may be on the strong side, especially in the north. The best chance for any strong storm may actually come this evening…

Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any shower or storm that goes up. With or without storms, winds are a player today. Gusts of 30mph+ will be possible. Highs today will be in the 70s for much of the state, but some low 80s may show up for areas getting more sun than anything else.

The front then slows down on top of the state tonight into Saturday. That will allow for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front and bring additional rain and some thunder back into the region. The models are impressed with this system, bringing some heavy rains across parts of the state.

Notice some hefty totals showing up across central and eastern Kentucky…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

The GFS has made a big jump compared to earlier runs…

Notice how most of the runs have the Louisville area between the heavier rains to the south, and not much to the north. That’s a fine line we are walking for the Derby City on Derby Day.

Another cold front drops in late Sunday with gusty winds and a few strong thunderstorms. That looks to be the first of severe thunderstorm makers taking shape for the next week…

I will have another update later today. Until then, I have you all set to track today’s action…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Oaks Day and take care.


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3 Responses to Heavy Rain Threat For Derby Day

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. I think I’ll past on Derby this year and hope next year we will have a dry track and cooler temperatures with sunshine. I may watch the race on the television if I can remember what time the race starts. Next event, the Indianapolis 500 which is my favorite of the two, hopefully the weather will cooperate by then. Have a great day everyone.

  2. Damaged Goods says:

    I’m already ready for the first Pot of Chili Alert for 2018. Can we skip to October?

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