Severe Weather Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks.  Rain and gusty winds are rolling across the state today, but the main focus of the forecast continues to be on the severe weather threat late Monday and early Tuesday. This is a potent storm system that is likely to cause issues across much of Kentucky.

Before we get into all that, let’s track today’s showers from west to east…

Winds may reach 40mph at times this afternoon and evening.

The severe weather threat for late Monday into Monday night is for the entire state. The Storm Prediction Center is slowly adjusting farther north and east with the main threat…

Their adjustments across Kentucky are way too slow and too far south. I expect the main severe threat to ramp up across central Kentucky Monday night. Watch for this area to get upgraded to a moderate risk.

Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible across the state. The wind damage threat is very high, with power outages a good possibility. This may very well cause issues for a few polling places early Election Day.

These storms may also be major rain producers that cause flash flooding. Look at the model forecasts for rainfall from just Monday night…

GFS

Hi Res NAM

2″-3″ of rain may fall in just a few hours. Given how wet we are, that could easily cause flash flooding issues to develop.

The rain clears out pretty quickly on Tuesday as gusty winds remain for voters. Temps drop behind this system, with seasonally cold air for Wednesday and Thursday. Another system then moves our way with rain that may end as some snowflakes on Friday or Saturday…

That’s some very cold air coming in behind that front with highs that may stay in the 30s next weekend.

Another winter looking system then drops in after that…

This is the new version of the GFS and it’s much more in line with reality than the current GFS. Check out the snow numbers from that run over the next 10 days…

The GFS Ensembles are all over the snow potential over the next few weeks…

Shots of arctic air look to show up behind each system moving in. Check out how impressive the below normal numbers are…

Folks, this is a full blown winter pattern setting up over the next few weeks. Not only should it bring the first flakes our way, it can very well put down the first accumulating snows.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


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12 Responses to Severe Weather Thoughts

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris for the heads up about tomorrow’s severe threat. I hope it doesn’t get that bad but if it does I know you will be there to keep us informed. As far as winter weather is concerned, timing could be good for a Christmas snow? :). ( I’m always the eternal optimist). Have a good afternoon everyone.

  2. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I am planning on losing my electric again.

  3. TennMark says:

    As Mike S mentioned this morning, Nov 5 2005 is a notable analog for tomorrow’s potential severe t-storms. Just yesterday, NWS Paducah in looking back stated that a relatively low tornado risk was forecast for that day thirteen years ago yet there was still the F3 (EF scale was still a few years away) that caused the m-a-s-s casualty event at Evansville IN. Besides striking extremely vulnerable mobile homes, another deadly aspect of the twister was that it hit at nearly 2am. Needless to say, being in sturdy shelters and having working early warning devices are so critical in saving lives.

    As it was, November 2005 was packed with potential severe wx events in addition to Nov 5. Some of them fizzled. But on Nov 15 occurred a fatal F3 near Princeton KY as well as the impressive F4 at nearby Madisonville. Kentucky and Tennessee have only had a small handful of November F4s in recorded history (no Nov EF4s in these two states to date, hopefully that does not change anytime soon).

    As if this was not enough, a late November 2005 outbreak across the Deep South led to loss of life in Arkansas. 2018 has shown some similarities to 2005 such as a near neutral El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Both years had very inactive spring tornado seasons. November 2018 is showing signs of perhaps rivaling the very active fall 2005 severe wx season… and November 2018 has only just started.

  4. MarkLex says:

    Not looking forward to it. I love general thunderstorms but not the bad stuff. I’d rather just watch severe weather on YouTube than actually experience it. I have already lost a huge tree this year and no power for a day. Could have been worse. I kept hoping the slight would go south, and yet the moderate is getting closer 🙁 After this year, I’m starting to long for boring weather.

  5. Terry says:

    If you long for boring, come live in Harlan. Most systems are sheared to death with the mountains. Sometimes, the whole state just about will have severe weather and flooding but Harlan barely even gets rain. Same for snow at times, we miss the action but can get a lot when the rest of the state doesnt depending on the track in winter! Are biggest threat here is occasiinal flooding though. Unfortunately, it is not just the weather that is boring in Harlan….no economy either☹

    • TennMark says:

      Yea, tornadic systems from the west/southwest towards southeast Kentucky seem to lose a lot of their tornadic energy. Long stretches of rugged terrain tend to interfere with tornado genesis. The so-called Superoutbreak of April 3 1974 may be a good example as while areas around Somerset, Corbin, and Knoxville were very hard hit, tornado activity largely ceased from those points on.

      • TennMark says:

        But an anomaly from the 1974 Superoutbreak was an F4 tornado that still occurred near Beckley WV despite hundreds of miles of rough topography beforehand. Thus there can be rare exceptions to any rule.

        BTW, this particular tornado even traversed the New River Gorge!

  6. TennMark says:

    NWS Louisville has more details on the short-lived EF-1 in Hardin County KY that occurred last week.
    https://www.weather.gov/lmk/EF-1TornadoConfirmedinHardinCountyKY

  7. bgbecky says:

    I’m getting nervous! We have a zoo field trip from BG going to oLouisville with 60 3rd graders! Please oh please let us get there and back before any storms

  8. Cold-Rain says:

    Looks like things are getting better organized according to modeling.. Western, Southern Ky and middle Tenn could be in for a rough time..

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