Tracking The Winter Weather Chances

Good Monday, my fellow weather weenies. It’s another active week of weather beginning across our part of the world, with the chances for early season winter weather showing up. The first is a minor system later tonight and early Tuesday, with a stronger system quickly moving in behind it.

You know how we roll on the blog… We start with the precious present and roll forward. Rain is increasing across the state today as our fist system moves in. The heaviest will be across the southeastern part of the state…

As I’ve already explained in prior posts, this system is fairly strung out and is leaving behind the bulk of the energy. That will come out and form a bigger storm for the middle and end of the week. Because of that, this first system doesn’t have as much precipitation and is weaker and very fast moving. Still, it should be able to change to a period of light snow later tonight and early Tuesday, especially in the west and central parts of the state…

Notice the disconnect between the main rain shield and the rain and snow lagging behind to the west. That’s what moves in later tonight with the chance for some wet snow in the areas I just mentioned. Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

Cold air continues to pour in behind this for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

All that energy that’s holding back decides to become a little bowling ball of an upper level low and it looks to head right at us by late Wednesday through Thursday.

Along and west of the track of the upper low, dynamic cooling will produce snow. This whole system then turns into a nor’easter through the end of the week. The big question for us is does the upper low move in a way to give us snow? That’s a real possibility as of now and several models are latching on to this snow threat…

NAM through Thursday Morning…


New version of the GFS


This is an interesting system because those upper lows can produce a thumper of a snow right under them. That doesn’t mean it will be anywhere across Kentucky, but, if not, it’s going to be pretty darn close. It’s also interesting to see all models spitting out some sleet and freezing rain in our region.

Watch the northwestern sky for a clipper looking system to move in this weekend. That could bring another shot of flakes our way.

Updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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15 Responses to Tracking The Winter Weather Chances

  1. Terry says:

    The NAO and AO look to both go negative again towards the end of the month. I am not sending out ‘blocking party’ invites just yet as neither oscillation went too far negative a few weeks, and both oscillations bounced back to neutral levels very quickly. It would be great for December if we could go more than 1 negative on each for real deal blocking. With all of the snow in Canada, we would be in for some harsh cold in December if we could get into a strong block pattern!

    As far as the upper low, it does look impressive but also looks (Currently) to track a too far NW of SE KY, so I am not yet excited for Harlan but will just watch and wait!

  2. Mike S says:

    Just looking at the animation above. That tropical disturbance is almost ingested into the potential nor’easter. Now, that would have been interesting.

  3. Mike S says:

    Now, that’s a cold front…
    In 1911, many locations in Oklahoma saw highs in the mid and upper 80’s on November 11, only to be replaced by low temperatures in the mid and upper teens the next day.
    Oklahoma City had of record high of 83 degrees on the 11th and had a record low of 17 on the 12th
    It’s snowing there presently with 1-3″ expected.

    • Mike S says:

      Sorry. I misread that bit of weather history. OKC actually had a record high of 83 on 11/11/1911 and a record low of 17 on the same day. That makes it rather unique.

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    Been following this site for sometime..Be warned this guy is a genius..You may want to have a dictionary’s from the NE but still gives his outlook for the entire country..Really like the -NAO he speaks of..

  5. Rolo says:

    Ok Bailey the NAM hunk so thriwcthatviut thevitgwrvnid ksxare ahiwibgvbitgubfvabdxare correct. Question what the hell is ICON model? Or have I just woke up from a coma ih were the euro?

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. It just gets more and more interesting for this early into the season….Wonder if that could possibly mean we may get some decent chances for good snows this winter? One can hope, and I am an eternal optimist! Have a great Monday everyone!

  7. Troy says:

    Nothing defines winter in the southern tier counties east of i-75 quite like cold rain, wash and repeat!

    • Terry says:

      I will hit 60.00 mark here right soon for the year-to-date precipitation! I am off from work today, so i have nothing better to do than track cold rain! Harlan mesonet is working on 76 inches, though it is a state outlier due to extreme elevation.

      If only 2018-19 season could rival the 1995-96 season and give SE KY around 60 inches of seasonal snow….you never know as we have that ‘look’!

  8. Cold-Rain says:

    Just curious..No longer see a certain person commenting anymore..Did i miss something?..Also looks like rolo has learned a new language..

  9. B H says:

    Sleet in Southern Ohio right now.

  10. Lotsasnow says:

    Was wondering where that annoying person was myself

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