A Model Fight Brewing For The Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that’s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far.

Given the little fight going on, I want  to see a few runs today before possibly upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT.

I’ll get to that storm in a moment, but we have another burst of light snow to track before it arrives.

A weak front drops in from northwest to southeast this evening and should produce a band of mixed showers of rain and snow that go over to light snow as it moves across the state…

Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

In terms of the weekend winter storm potential, we still have a lot of questions to be answered and details to be ironed out. Nothing is set in stone and may not be for another day or so. Given all that, I will keep this map going for the time being…

The GFS matches up pretty well with that…

Here’s the snapshot of that model run for snowfall…

Freezing rain forecast from that particular run…

The Canadian Model is a smidge farther south, but is also similar…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

The new version of the GFS had been super consistent in how it was handling this storm system. The latest run took a little stroll to the south…

The European Model also took a south stroll, but it really looks to be having some big issues again…

The Euro has been the most inconsistent of all the models to this point and that’s sad to see.

When we find operational models in disagreement, it’s always good to look at the Ensembles. They are made up of many different runs that show an average. The GFS Ensembles are holding serve from what they had earlier…

Here are the 21 individual ensemble members that make up the average you see above…

You can see the majority of those members have a fairly solid west to east swath of snow across the state. Only a couple do not.

I will be back with your midday update and hopefully some better clarity on this potential. 🙂

Make it a good one and take care.


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77 Responses to A Model Fight Brewing For The Weekend

  1. BH says:

    Chris is still not sure about this one. Yet.

  2. Terry says:

    Boo! I was awaiting that ‘Threat’ update but I understand Chris…you know, biggest trait so far on the storm prediction has been the undying consistency for far SE KY getting slammed. For several days now and with several different major models, each run has wobbled (like usual) north and south, but SE KY has not been left out…don’t think I have ever seen this before!

  3. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Wonder if we will see any watches issued today at least for the far eastern counties?
    Pretty much every model run has had me in the bulls eye for a double digit snowfall.

  4. bradc says:

    Rain and mix precip gonna really cut into the totals imo

  5. Delana says:

    Sucks Georgetown ky wont get anything. Always north or south of us .

  6. Dane H says:

    How does it look for NKY (Boone, Kenton, Campbell)?

  7. Jirvin1120 says:

    I never thought I would need to move further South to get in on the snow!

  8. Jeff Irvin says:

    I didn’t think I would need to move South to get in on the snow!

  9. Miss Kate says:

    So, we are going to get rain this weekend? Great.

  10. Bob says:

    I live in Knott county. Weather channel and LEX 18 just showed us in the 1-3 inch snow range…..I say all rain.

  11. Jim B says:

    Haha, here we go…. going south my friends, for most of Ky anyway

  12. SpaceGhost says:

    Why do I get the creeping feeling that the tristate area
    is going to end up with nothing as usual?

  13. feederband says:

    Looks like south and eastern parts of the state in the sweet spot now. If it doesn’t shift north then have fun those in the southern part of the state.

  14. BH says:

    As of right now the Meteorologists in my area of Southern Ohio have taken any kind of precipitation for this weekend off the table. Just saying its going to be cloudy through the period.

  15. BubbaG says:

    Sadly, the models have more data now, so should be more accurate now than they were as well. The average of the models is not trending in snow favor, and more mix now. Did not expect a southern shift and expected more north, since the southern flow I thought would influence it…… Strange.

    Still a chance though, but seems not the 50/50 shot for the bigger event.

    • Bjenks says:

      I like the 50/50…

    • Troy says:

      But King Joe Bastardi guaranteed this would move North, all the way to Ohio!

      • David in Gtown says:

        How many times over the years have the models shown 3 days out that Lexington would be the sweet spot, only to have Indianapolis or even Chicago get the heavy snow?

      • Bjenks says:

        Hey there is still time. This is by no means set in stone.

      • BubbaG says:

        Hah! If it did that now, it would be back to where it was last night, so still not much for north of KY. This one seemed a legit shot. I usually peg 10% at best chance more than five days out for snow and had this at 50%. This really seemed like the biggest KY snow chance since 1989. This is coming from one of the probably more (relatively) cynical people that post on the blog 😉

        Still a Dumb and Dumber chance though 🙂

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      I’ll stick with what Chris says.

  16. Russell says:

    West ky misses out. Calling it now.

  17. Cold-Rain says:

    Well newer GFS did tick back NW some and earlier this morning so maybe it’s a trend..lol..Have to admit that was a hard pill to swallow watching the Euro go SE..Maybe today it will shift 100 miles NW like it did a couple of days ago..lol

  18. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I am not going to speculate on anything as far as the
    upcoming weekend storm goes. I am going to wait and see what Chris says because I trust him. I know there are a lot of people on here who have followed him for a long time like myself, but I still don’t think I could possibly even come close to seeing what he sees and making an educated guess on what will happen. So, I will wait for the pro to figure it out and let me know what to expect. The one thing I do know is that when Chris has it pegged, we will know, as close as possible, what’s coming. Not calling anyone out for opinions as I know that is what we are all sharing here, so please don’t think I am trying to jump on anybody. I hope we all get a good one out of it, but last time we got a big snow this early in the season, we had a very snowy winter. Guess we will see….have a great day everyone.

  19. Rickie H says:

    I live in Jenkins Ky Letcher Co. It was 10 years ago about the same time in the month that we received a snow pretty much like what is being forecasted for us this time. We got 18 inches of snow. It lasted all through Christmas. Had lots of power outages, trees down due to the heavy weight of the snow That year we did have a white Christmas. Unfortunately a lot of people went without power during Christmas.

  20. Jimmie says:

    Looks like this one has the potential to turn into an ice storm for some folks. Let’s hope the GFS model run is incorrect. If the “I” word is a possibility, I’d be happy if this system scoots further south and misses the area entirely.

  21. B H says:

    I love it when Meteorologists post a snow map an it shows 2 two 10 inches could fall in a certain area. Well they really stuck there neck out on that one now didn’t they?

  22. michael says:

    noaa is saying rain/mix i usually get what they say in London,Ky

  23. feederband says:

    NAM moving a little more north. Waiting to see if the others agree.

    • BubbaG says:

      Surprised ice isn’t being mentioned…. Usually these type of scenarios have an area along the boundary that is more that than snow…. Good luck to CB figuring this thing out. Somebody in KY still looks good for heavy- maybe even nasty stuff. I will not even pretend to even pretend I have clue with this one now. Seems different than normal.

  24. Bill Smith says:

    NAM crushes Lexington and South.

  25. Clapp Landscaping says:

    Remember the 6z is always trash

  26. Matt says:

    Man, snow is so hard to predict, the general public complains and makes fun of mets when they have no clue how many variables are at play. There is no crystal ball for this stuff..

    • feederband says:

      Very difficult in this area. So many things that have to happen to get wintry weather. I don’t envy mets because many times it’s a catch 22. Not like predicting snow in Buffalo New York.

  27. Coreyfromtheky says:

    The southern trend continues on gfs and canadian… oh well

  28. Dee says:

    Chris, Are you getting a little pumped about the SE KY potential? I’m still thinking we have a good shot of seeing a nice snow

  29. Snowman1981 says:

    Way too early to make any predictions on this one. Its southward trend in the models is still fools information at this point. That system is just now making landfall on the west coast. Tomorrow night will be the first time you can really start forming a picture of what might formulate and where. With as sharp as the cutoff might be here you will have to nowcast in some areas when the storm arrives.

  30. Joyce says:

    I am in Mercer county. Praying we get in on more then 2 in.

  31. Jimbo says:

    Living in the tri-state in Winter. Is like having to set at table in a nice restaurant for 3 months but not allowed to order, only look at the menu. All the while watching everyone dine around you.

  32. Lotsasnow says:

    Looks like the biggest bust of all time but if you only go by models you loose because they are completely unreliable

    • Prelude says:

      What???? How is it a bust when there was no official forecast? Not even remotely close to being the biggest bust of all time. Hurricane Michael that ravished the Florida Panhandle would be considered a bust. A hurricane that was suppose to be a Cat1 not 36-48 hours before landfall hit the coast as a Cat 4 and some would argue at Cat 5. That is what I consider a huge bust.

      • feederband says:

        Good point. Way too early to call it.

        • Prelude says:

          Absolutely it’s to early to call it. The low pressure is just getting on land in Southern California there will be more shifts to come. I don’t like snow but I’m a realist and reality is there is just to much model discrepancy. I do believe southern and SE Kentucky is the sweet spot. There will be a lot of dry air in play to the north so how far north the precipitation field can actually make it is anyone’s guess.

  33. Terry says:

    I don’t think anyone is out of this yet myself….GFS 95% of the time bends back NW up to and sometimes within 24 hrs of a big storm. Also, NAM has been good are past few weeks with snow shower events!

  34. BB says:

    The new version of the gfs has a big hit for southern and eastern ky.

    • BubbaG says:

      Unless this falls completely off the rails, not seeing how that area is missed. Catch is might not be what some might be expecting, since could be heavy, nasty, ‘mixy’ stuff.

  35. BubbaG says:

    Now the model cherry picking phase kicks in 😉 Average is probably the best approach, rather than the one folks want to see. The lack of northern trend seems nuts. If south, seems could be ice and mix with snow- except higher elevations. Again, good luck to CB, but the models so far appear to not be heading in the big snow direction for a lot of us.

    • Trent says:

      Every model is showing southern eastern part getting hammered

    • BB says:

      Well, if you look at the gfs ensembles or the euro ensembles, they are further north. My opinion, southern 1/3 of kentucky through eastern ky will see a decent snow out of this. Amount will depend largely on temp profiles. Tonight 00z runs will tell alot as storm will be sampled over land.

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep. Seems the more southern emphasis, the less mainly snow and more nasty mix come into play. Seems the word “mix” could be used a lot, over the next few days, depending on that.

  36. Trent says:

    I don’t get why no threat mode. Every model is showing southern and eastern Kentucky getting hammered and have been showing this a while now. Why the hesitation on upgrading

  37. BF says:

    I’m waiting for Chris Bailey’s midday update with bated breath.

  38. Coreyfromtheky says:

    I think the models are underplaying the amount of moisture in Kentucky, also there’s a 500mb low thata forming in the upper levels, which is why Chris is hesitant on southern bias

  39. Jason says:

    Its a waiting game however I have not seen Harlan or seky stay in the bulls eye like it has in years this week without a northern shift.

  40. BB says:

    What will also be key to watch is how the models are handling areas downstream.(Texas Panhandle through northern Arkansas.) The Models that handle this area the best Saturday, will be the model to pay attention to in term of precip type and thermal profiles

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