Winter Storm Threat South and Southeast

Good Evening, folks. As we get closer to the weekend, our winter storm system starts to come into a little better focus. I’m going to go ahead and switch to a Winter Storm THREAT for areas of southern and southeastern Kentucky.

A THREAT means there is the increased potential for significant snow (4″+) or ice accumulations. If I become more confident in this outcome, we will shift to ALERT mode. If confidence goes the other way, we similar track whatever is leftover.

Here’s a look at the greatest threat area…

The area in red is the prime area to be impacted by snow and freezing rain. I’m going to be honest… I’m still nervous this thing will wind up being a bit farther north. Maybe that’s because of past events, but it’s something I’m wrestlin’ with.

Keep in mind, those risk area lines can creep farther north or sink toward the south. This is still not set in stone. (Dink! ;))

The WPC is highlighting a similar area for  the potential of 4″+ snows…

 

The latest run of the NAM shows a healthy swath of freezing rain and snow across southern and southeastern Kentucky. This only goes through Sunday evening…

Here’s the snow map from that run…

The freezing rain forecast from that same run…

The new version of the GFS continues to be the most widespread with the snow potential…

The European model is a little farther north and west than earlier runs, and is still putting down a lot of wet snow in the southeast. Check out the amazing snow gradient on this run…

The regular version of the GFS is similar, but appears to still be having some temperature issues…

I will have an updated map for you on WKYT-TV at 11 and then here on the blog later tonight.

By the way… The next forecasting headache is lurking in the week ahead…

Enjoy the evening and take care.


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48 Responses to Winter Storm Threat South and Southeast

  1. Julie Lynch says:

    Bummer! I’m in the low risk area now. Southeastern Ohio. I hope it moves north!!!!

    • Scarlett says:

      We all love the white snow and we’re at of the range also but just remember will it gets closer to Christmas we might have the luck of the draw and have a white one. We can think positive on that . And let’s just be grateful no ice for us.

  2. Terry says:

    Hard to imagine that Harlan fully misses at this point….could based on temps being warm with too much rain but I am not buying the ice. Ice in SE KY is pretty rare due to the warm wedge….Jimbo knows what I am talking about!

    Only regular GFS has mostly left SE KY out!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Don’tt get your hopes up buddy

    • Jimbo says:

      Looks like this is your storm. I hope the Warm Wedge doesn’t ruin it for you and it is a memorable one. Meanwhile, I will be waiting on the next heavy rain to dreaded backside flurry event next week.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Still waffling some I see. Hopefully it will settle in and then we will know what to expect…..maybe. Have a good evening everyone.

  4. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Reminds me of the December 2009 storm: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/284322

    If I remember correctly there was also a tight gradient of snowfall with that storm, with 16+ inches here in Letcher County and around 6 inches in Jackson.

    • Terry says:

      We only had about 5 inches from that one in the valley of Harlan but high up got smacked….been wondering if that might be the high total bias of the models with the valley not represented well!!??

      I am not 100% sold on the level of those totals. Seems like 6 inches in the valley would be a better bet, if the temps are in fact going to be as warm as predicted.

  5. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris I don’t envy you or any of the Mets making this forecast! Just a couple inches would be fine with me I am getting like Bubba I don’t want to lose power! A couple might not take cause too much trouble sure don’t want ice but I guess we will take what we get and go on lol the kid in me always want a big snow but the adult says what about the power lol!! It is so strange we might not have anything here in Pikeville but go a few miles another way it could be a smack down!! Will be following the blog as always!!

  6. Jimmie says:

    That’s a wicked-looking low-pressure system for next week. That 977mb reading would be comparable to a category 1 hurricane.

    • Ravakivie says:

      I was living in Cleveland during the blizzard of 1978…barometric pressure was 28.28 inches of mercury or 958 mb. It will be a super nasty storm if the models are correct and more moisture to play with.

  7. Christinajade says:

    Good grief, thanks, NAM. Took McCracken County from 10″ to nothing in less than 24 hours. pffft. Be interesting to see what really happens.

  8. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Operational models are starting to erode the high to our north and are bringing a little more precip in on the QPF charts. Still not showing up on snow charts. Anxiously awaiting the 0z runs. It’s coming down to the wire.

  9. Winterlover says:

    Don’t give up folks regardless it’s not first day of winter yet. We may get more than we want down the road.

  10. Leeannie says:

    Huntington….always the bridesmaid ……..

    • TennMark says:

      Doesn’t help Huntington that NWS Charleston WV can be notorious in seemingly waiting to issue advisories/watches until almost the last second.

      But at least you can look here to CB’s updates. 😉

  11. Dawnp007 says:

    Loving it. Keeping my fingers crossed!!! If it goes north a little, I’m in such a sweet spot! Smackdown!

  12. JoeD says:

    Lately, it looks as though the various forecast models are becoming neurotic…is there a model-shrink in the house??
    Seeing a possible .25 to .5 inches of ice in Warren, I’ve already picked up a fresh tank of propane, and it looks like I’ll be haulin’ some firewood tomorrow! We’ll see what the next runs have in store, but I’m getting they’ll nudge a bit farther south.

  13. TennMark says:

    As Bubba, Terry and others here have already touched on, I will take the snow and sleet over the freezing rain. Even if we don’t exactly have much choice in the matter.

    Anxiously watching the model runs and hoping the worst of the freezing rain stays north of Nashville. But we have a generator just in case. Some of our neighbors still have bad memories of the devastating 1994 ice storm. My wife as a girl experienced the same storm in Bowling Green.

    Even northern Georgia (where my brother and his family live) is expecting snow/ice.

    • Crystal In Pikeville says:

      I just saw a report on the weather channel as I was flipping by and it was showing the terrible ice storm in Ky where the power was out for a long time was that 2009 anyone?I am thinking it was I am hoping we never repeat that again!

      • Debbie says:

        Yep, that was it, Crystal! The part I remember about it most is that a lot of people around me here in Bardstown/Nelson Co. lost power for days, and because we had big trees in our neighborhood & yards, and a main transformer in our backyard that supplied us & the other 6 homes on our street from RECC (the rest were City Util’s), it was always a given that the transformer would blow or limbs hit the lines, but we never once had that first power flicker! And I had to be really careful on our porches and steps because pea gravel is slicker than snot in ice…but the ice was almost gone and the yard a muddy mess-I let the dogs inside and stepped in one of their muddy pawprints and went flying in a circle up against the kitchen cabinet and broke my collarbone! ouch….. 😀 Ice is awesome to look at, but I’ll take a foot + of snow anytime!

      • TennMark says:

        That was indeed early 2009. I had just moved to Evansville IN where the ice was bad enough but at least I basically still had power. The destruction was even worse in areas of Kentucky (like Madisonville) as well as other states such as Arkansas and Oklahoma.

        • Thanks guys I hope we never see that again give me the cold rain over ice any day!!!

        • Crystal In Pikeville says:

          Thanks guys I will take cold rain over ice all day long!! A little snow would be nice but I sure don’t want to lose power!! Will be watching what Chris says. It’s hard not imagine having warm air pulled in maybe it won’t this time!! Any thoughts anyone on that?????

      • Andrea Hepner says:

        Oh yes! It was late January, 2009! We can still see scars on trees here in Ohio county, KY. No power for 11 days at my house and greater than 2 weeks at others. I get really anxious when there’s ice potential!

  14. BengalFan says:

    Give the spoon to Virginia North Carolina. And put the fork into Central Kentucky as far as this one is concerned

  15. Jared from Letcher County says:
  16. Muddy says:

    Isn’t ut going to be too warm in southern KY ? Highs of 36 ….

  17. Cold-Rain says:

    YEA..Still in the green according to the Nam..lol..

  18. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Several models.showing another low behind main low with northeast winds guiding it…folks, still room for it to move north 🙂

  19. Terry says:

    Not trying to be too excited….but, NAM has done well over past few weeks with these flurry systems!☺

  20. Chris says:

    This thing is going into the Carolinas and far far south and south east KY. We aren’t going to see much. I could tell with the runs this morning and the mets all over the country saying the same thing. I was looking forward to it 🙁

  21. Lotsasnow says:

    The 00 run of gfs takes everything out of ky even se ky. Time to throw in towl and look for the next fake storm.

  22. Cold-Rain says:

    Lol..GFS no snow or rain..Okay..I can live with that..

  23. Jared from Letcher County says:

    The Euro will be running in a bit. Curious to see if it goes towards the Nam or GFS. The GFS has a tendency to lose storms a day or two beforehand before correcting back closer to the event.

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Believe tonight’s run will tell alot..If it shift’s North then the Nam may be on to something..These crazy South East moves need to stop..lol

  24. Cold-Rain says:

    I’m just going to pretend the GFS don’t even exist..What a stupid model..lol

  25. Jimbo says:

    Has anyone else noticed how the Carolina’s, Virginia, Tennessee or Arkansas etc. When they get a snowstorm, they usually go big/heavy snow. But in our area, it’s kinda like death by a thousand pin sticks, numerous 1 inch or less nuisance snows.

  26. Trent says:

    No tweet bout the European. Worrisome

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