Winter Storm Threat Continues For The Southeast

Good Friday, folks. As we head into the weekend, the winter storm potential is still as clear as mud. The models continue to fight more than a family arguing politics at the dinner table… And that’s saying something. Given this battle, I’m not making any changes to the Winter Storm Threat to areas of the south and southeast.

This system hasn’t even formed yet, so the models are still struggling with how to put all the storm ingredients together.

The two heavy hitters in the modeling world are the GFS and the European Models. They are giving only far southern and southeastern Kentucky some snow action, and it’s much lighter than the other models. You can see this well on the GFS…

As of this writing, it’s those two models against the rest of the modelling world. The NAM continues to be north and west with the snow and freezing rain shield…

That particular run put a hurting on southeastern Kentucky…

The Hi-Res NAM only goes through daybreak Sunday, but is even farther north and west with the storm system…

Here’s the snow forecast from that same run…

Both of the NAM models are spitting out some freezing rain accumulations, too.

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the NAM fam than it is to the GFS and Euro Duo…

The Canadian Model has a similar scenario…

A few notes to consider:

  • This system isn’t slated to impact the region until Saturday night and Sunday, so we still have plenty of model runs to go through.
  • I’m hopeful we can get a little better consensus  with the 12z model runs, but, given all the players on the weather field, that may still be pushing it.
  • The farther south and southeast you live, the greater the risk of this storm impacting you.
  • I will have a first call map later today, for wherever this storm ultimately decides to go.
  • It’s pretty cool to have a storm come from a signal I first picked up on nearly 2 weeks ago here on KWC.

Speaking of storm signals, I’ve already been laying the ground work for the next one to potentially impact our region…

I will have your regular updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Friday and take care.


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41 Responses to Winter Storm Threat Continues For The Southeast

  1. Rob says:

    I just don’t see the HP being strong enough to suppress this this system this far south. CB… you are the pro, but I’m still…

  2. Christinajade says:

    Well, those of us over here in the Purchase area are either going to get nothing or about 8″ of snow and some ice. Be interesting to see how this all looks in 24 hours.

  3. BlizzardTim says:

    The 06z gfs says : what snow? What storm?…lol just showing rain in most of Tennessee and has suppressed the storm completely out of most of Kentucky now….‍♂️

    • Andy Rose says:

      Its been consistent with that.

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems the more south, the less snow and more mix. I prefer power and no shoveling, so all good. Just don’t like being duped by the models.

      For snow, they are about worthless until 48 hours in and even then a tad dubious.

  4. Bobt says:

    Oh well, you can bet any system showing a smack down in Southern / SE Kentucky is going to fall apart 48 hours before the storm. Knox County is one of the few sections in KY that is still in a two decade drought of seeing a big snow. Long live the dome.

  5. Terry says:

    Morristown expanded winter storm watch for northeast TN counties as far west as Claiborne but SE KY doesn’t even have a Special Weather Statement yet. EURO agrees with the GFS at the moment and plays early Christmas Grinch☹

  6. c-BIV says:

    Oh yes…another typical winter storm that has all kinds of “potential” and then laughs itself all the way out of Kentucky.
    However, if this were an all rain event, we’d be under flash flood warnings. Rain never misses us
    We are Charlie Brown and the weather models are Lucy.
    The past couple years, if you want big snows, head south, north, and east of Kentucky.

    • Prelude says:

      That’s simply not true. March 21st 2018 north central and central Kentucky were digging out of over a foot of snowfall.

      • c-BIV says:

        My apologies…over this way, Louisville officially had 5″ of snow the entire 2017-2018 season.
        So, still north and east of this area.
        Most of the state though really has missed out on the big snows.
        The pattern is what it is. We’ll eventually get a big snow. These weather model potentials though are comical at times.
        No fault of the MET’s. CB has pointed out numerous times what junk they are as a whole.
        Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Carolinas all with bigger snow hits than Kentucky.

        • Prelude says:

          What??? Louisville had 18.9 inches of snow in 2017-2018 season you’re way way off. Louisville was above average in snowfall. The March 21st snowfall just this year Louisville picked up nearly a foot of snow officially at the airport.

          • Bobt says:

            Almost the entire state of Kentucky has seen good snows in the last few years. The only area still in the dome is basically the sweet spot of where this system was at two days ago. I guess it’s something to do with the terrain of the area, but somehow back in the 80s and 90s it could get good snows here. Dome since 1998 and counting.

  7. nasdas says:

    Looks like NWS Jackson did the right thing holding off on winter storm warnings. Ugh, it sickens me to say that.

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I’m just not going to be a nay sayer or a excited puppy. Im just going to wait and see. I hope it moves a little further north and gives us all snow, but we are still, at this point, in the area
    of greatest risk, but we will see. Right now, its cold, temp is dropping and its cloudy here, So Happy Friday to everyone and lets see what happens.

  9. Bryan says:

    Doom off. Models appear to be converging on pretty much a no go as far as snow. Glad to see that Chis held off on a first call map. Obviously, still tons of winter to go, but not exactly a good thing to see a cold pattern go to waste. Gotta feel like we will, at some point, hit a period of warmth.

  10. Matt says:

    Question, are there any statistics on which model is the most accurate? Particularly within 3 days of a system..? Or is it a total crapshoot from week to week on which one will be most trusted?

  11. Russell says:

    I said it WKY will miss out.

  12. Teacher Nate says:

    I said this on another thread and for some reason it is no longer there. It seems to me that the issue with this storm is that it is no longer forecast by the models to ride up the east coast, but just go on out to sea. What feature did the model think it saw to take it up the coast, that it no longer sees now?

  13. MarkLex says:

    If I still lived back home in NC, my county is in the bullseye for heaviest snow. I took a look at NWS forecast and they are predicting 14 inches for Brevard. But since living here starting in 96, we’ve seen much more snow overall than they have. To have a snowstorm of this magnitude hit there this early in winter is super rare. I don’t ever remember that happening growing up.

  14. Wes says:

    Any chance of this moving back?

  15. jason says:

    instead of a northern trend its a southern trend this year lol

  16. Wes says:

    Can someone post the models when they come out?

  17. MB says:

    No milk and bread run needed… Hysteria has been avoided…

  18. jackson says:

    It is becoming clear that here in NE Pike County the snow is going to our south. Still hoping far SE Kentucky(Bell, Letcher, Harlan, SE Pike)can get a hit out of this as the area misses out on the snow often it seems.

  19. Jimbo says:

    Just the first in what will likely be a long list of phantom storms 5 to 7 days out for this Winter. The only model storm you can depend on is the one that shows heavy rain to backside flurries. Like the one next week. Now I would bet on that one doing just what the model shows.

  20. BengalFan says:

    Why do snow lovers (me included) take a MISS personally!!!
    I should become a rain lover and I would be extremely happy, because like we all know the models will not miss on rain chances. To me that is absolutely amazing . I honestly don’t understand why Chris would say that nect next weeks system will be hard to predict. Already looking at the model rain backside snow showers. It will not miss with the rain. Mark that down

  21. Jared from Letcher County says:

    New Canadian model shifts to the north.

  22. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Also NWS Jackson still forecasting 4-8 inches for the border counties, which makes the lack of a watch even more odd.

    • David M Lockhart says:

      right, In london on weather4us is 1-3″ for saturday night and sunday 3-5″ 4-8″ and still no warnings or anything …

  23. BubbaG says:

    Hah! If it is actually more north, that would make more sense. If more of a southerly system though, less snow and more nasty mix.

  24. Bobt says:

    I predict anywhere from 0-14 inches with this one. That should cover the forecast. 48 hours out and models continue to waffle all over the place.

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