Friday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. We’ve made it to the weekend and we continue to watch our developing winter storm taking aim at parts of Kentucky. This continues to look like it has the best chance of impacting southern and southeastern Kentucky.

The Winter Storm THREAT continues for these areas…

Freezing rain and snow has the best chance of targeting these areas compared to anywhere else. It’s the same setup as we have been talking about for a while now, where the farther north and west you live, the lower the chance of seeing much at all.

The short range Canadian continues to try and change that. It has the freezing rain and snow much farther north than anything else…

The new version of the GFS is now similar with that…

Here are the areas getting snow and freezing rain on that model run… 

The afternoon run of the NAM changed course from the earlier run that had nothing hitting Kentucky. Here’s the area it shows across the southeast for snow and freezing rain…

The Hi Res NAM  is similar, but shows a better breakdown between snow and freezing rain…

Snow

Freezing rain 

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV at 11 tonight and that should include a first call map. I’ll also have the latest on KWC later tonight. Enjoy and take care.


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28 Responses to Friday Evening Thoughts

  1. Terry says:

    At least the Threat lives another update☺. I hope for a low end Winter Storm Warning for Harlan after the event already begins, but probably an advisory will do. I would prefer at least a Special Statement BEFORE the event but NWS isn’t biting. It will be a last minute warning or advisory for a few of us, at least I think anyways.

  2. Prelude says:

    All the money spent on these computer models and yet none of them to me are worth a dime. These weather models can and has made forecasters look silly and foolish from Texas to the Ohio Valley with this particular storm. If the weather models aren’t reliable what’s the point?

    • BengalFan says:

      I’m with ya on that! I get tired of it as well. But models showing this almost 2 weeks out, and misses Cky about 90 miles is pretty good work for government work.
      In today’s age, everybody will do our analysis of the models and want them to be rock steady.

    • Lotsasnow says:

      I agree.their has got to be a better way of forcasting what did theese guys do 30 years ago?

  3. Trent says:

    I’ve literally never seen where they just have no idea what it’s going to do. A foot of snow to all rain. To nothing and sunny. To snow and sleet. To the possibility of nothing at all. Then it’s coming back to the possibility of rain and snow. With the technology of today it shouldn’t be that hard

  4. Winter Warlock says:

    Frank Faulkner got it right or so the legend goes….many a year ago…

  5. BubbaG says:

    The southern flow so due east still does not make sense. If it does that, should mainly be mix or ice, with some snow. Nasty mix unless higher elevations.

  6. Todd says:

    Tenn. N.C. AND other southern states seem to be getting bigger winter events than KY the last few winters? Global warming I guess 🙂

  7. Jared from Letcher County says:

    New NAM brings double digit snows back into SEKY. Looks like the northern shift could be on?

    • Terry says:

      Well NWS must be only going by GFS alone on this storm as not even a Special Weather Statement for Harlan and nearing 24 hrs to start time. We usually get at least a statement for even less than an inch events within 24 hrs…they are not budging so some model(s) are going to be wrong later this weekend. Either GFS has been a misleading Grinch or all of the others have been lying to us!!!

      • Jared from Letcher County says:

        Yeah, I’ve been confused by their lack of any sort of statement at all, even when neighboring counties are under a winter storm watch. I guess we’ll see what they end up doing tonight.

      • Jimbo says:

        I think the Charleston NWS goes by the GFS only. And all the local TV Met’s in my area follow in lock step.

  8. BubbaG says:

    Looking more ice if that far south. Just saying.

  9. Jon says:

    Jared what is that giving Knox county? Looks like 7-8 inches.

  10. Jared from Letcher County says:

    New GFS also bringing the heavy snow back as well, has some light snow all the way up towards Lexington:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120800/fv3p_asnow_neus_11.png

  11. TikiTorchRob says:

    I could be off but isn’t the low pressure area already 70 -80 miles north of the models? Not me being hopeful, just looking at the radar vs the models….

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