Winter Storm Threat Continues South and Southeast

3:35am Update

Good Saturday… Again. The new NAM is in and I wanted to add it to this post because it continues to trend a bit farther north and west with the winter storm and it ups the snow totals…

I see the NWS in Jackson went with a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a Winter Storm Watch. That’s a major head scratcher!!

Take care,


Good Saturday, everyone. A Winter Storm continues to take aim at parts of the bluegrass from later today through Sunday. While this storm continues to target southern and southeastern Kentucky with the greatest impact, the models are slowly starting to creep back to the north and west a bit. That’s a trend we will need to watch closely as the day wears on to see if it continues.

Our Winter Storm Threat will likely get upgraded to an Alert today and I highly suspect Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories will be issued early today for some areas…

I made a First Call for ice and snowfall last night on WKYT-TV. This was before the full suite of 0z models came in…

Do NOT get attached to those numbers and lines as I will be moving them around a couple of times today as I get a better handle on how this shakes out.  Some issues I foresee:

  • Freezing rain and sleet will complicate the snowfall part of the program. Areas that get more freezing rain or sleet will obviously get less snow and vice versa.
  • There is likely to be a super sharp cut off on the northern and wester edge of snow and freezing rain shield. I’m not exactly sure where that set up, to be honest.
  • Precipitation may try to creep in a little early today in the far south and southwest. As precip moves in, temps come down quickly.
  • The whole mess has a window of opportunity to keep edging farther north and west and, as I said on Thursday, that is a concern of mine.
  • None of this is set in stone. (DRINK!)
  • Please don’t pay attention to automated forecasts such as those that appear on apps. They have no human input and will have wild variations from hour to hour.

Let’s get you caught up on the latest computer forecast models. As of this writing, many of them continue to trend back toward what they were showing a day or two ago. That’s why I didn’t make knee jerk reactions when they temporally jumped ship on Friday.

The new version of the GFS is  farther north and west with the precip shield…

Here’s the snowfall map from that run…

You can also see the fairly expansive area of freezing rain it has…

The Canadian Model is very similar…

The snow map has more widespread action that gets pretty far north in the east…

The short range version of the Canadian was the lone model to not go jump ship for a time early Friday. It was the first to show a more north and west system and it hasn’t faltered…

That model has a little less snow than the main Canadian Model, but has much more freezing rain…

That freezing rain signature also shows up pretty strong on the Hi Res NAM across the south…

The regular NAM is farther south and southeast with the freezing rain and snow…

That snow map is similar to the European Model, but both of these models had been a fill blown miss for anywhere in Kentucky earlier Friday. They have both been trending slowly back north and west. Here’s the Euro…

Once again, we still have time for fairly significant adjustments to the forecast.

Of course, I will have additional updates later today. Here’s regional radar to track an increase in the action to our south and southwest…

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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33 Responses to Winter Storm Threat Continues South and Southeast

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Yippee!! Hoping it continues to trend back northwest! Don’t care too much for the freezing rain though. Thanks for your dedication!!

  2. jackson says:

    Tomorrow will be a very interesting day of model watching as it appears here in NE Pike County we are walking a fine line between a healthy snowfall and nothing.

    Looks like those along the VA border are gonna get hit hard, here’s to no prolonged freezing rain.

  3. Northwind says:

    Anything but Freezing Rain yuccck!

  4. Randy says:

    NAM is north on 06z

  5. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Wow, the NAM run is impressive.
    I gotta get some sleep though. lol

  6. TennMark says:

    Currently a few rain sprinkles in Nashville TN. Cautious optimism that from Saturday evening on will be mostly rain/snow and that most of the freezing rain will stay just to the north. Not wishing ill will on others, though! Wife and I have a generator just in case, but hoping to go as long as possible (years) without needing it.

    • Terry says:

      Although a lot may be virga, the precip shield is already much farther north and earlier than predicted yesterday, especially on GFS. The precip is trying to nudge into the KY/TN border. I may be wrong myself on only thinking 3 to 6 inches for SE KY…though mixed precip could still keep the snow totals down!

    • BlizzardTim says:

      TennMark… it’s been rain/sleet/snow over here on watts bar lake on meigs/rhea county line! Temp is 36* would be nice to have some evaporational cooling and a heavy wet thumping snowstorm!! Maybe before winter is over this year I think my family up in Knox county Kentucky around Barbourville will end up in a sweet spot

  7. Terry says:

    Chris….I am just glad we got something from NWS in Harlan. I was expecting nothing until Saturday night and go straight to a warning myself!

  8. nasdaq says:

    jkl always does this, they’d rather upgrade to a warning if need be

    • Terry says:

      I am glad we got something from them before start time period. I was confused when East TN and SW VA had watches Thursday night and we didn’t even have a Special Weather Statement yesterday. Guess it will be a busy Saturday for bread, milk and eggs in Harlan…lol☺

      • Nasdaq says:

        Indeed, there was more than enough model data for advisory. As always, this is gonna be close. Pattern is loaded, having even a chance of a white Christmas at this range is a win win. Hoping this stays all snow and SE KY can finally cash in

  9. Randy says:

    GFS is still a whiff

    • Terry says:

      My bets are on the NAM…not perfect but NAM has done good so far this year with the flurry systems and certainly better than the other models within 24 hrs out!

  10. Jim B says:

    Next, on to the rain maker next week

  11. Wondering says:

    Oh well, at least it’s not going to give us that insulting cold rain.

  12. BH says:

    One of my sons lives in Corey North Carolina. They have a Winter Storm Warning for 3 to 6 inches of snow. That pretty far south and east. It’s close to Raleigh North Carolina.

  13. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hers hoping for more snow and less freezing rain. Will be closely watching the blog today for sure!

  14. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hers hoping for more snow and less freezing rain. Will be closely watching the blog today for sure!

  15. Joyce says:

    When do the next maps come out?

  16. Cold-Rain says:

    Storm definitely getting stronger according to models..just need some more nw shifts to be on the safe side..

  17. Drew says:

    Any chance this things shifts northwest and hits the I64 corridor?

  18. Mike S says:

    One would think that the JKL weather office would coordinate with adjacent offices to arrive at what is best for its County Warning Area. Perhaps they did. But, one has to wonder at times.
    This is a Nowcast event. The WWA is at least a basic coverage of winter conditions and can easily upgrade to Warning status as the need arises. This is still a fluid or changeable event. Even locations initially not in an Advisory could go to a Warning in a moment’s notice

  19. Cold-Rain says:

    tricky forecast for the SE..Especially border counties..Believe i’ll go with Caldwell..0-8 inches at the

  20. Jimmie says:

    Man, that’s an ugly look for folks in east-central Arkansas and western Tennessee.

  21. Troy says:

    The models throwing out a smackdown for the Middlesboro area and that’s unsettling. I’ve seen this far too many times… Models showing a huge event, less than 12 hours out, only to get cold rain for the entirety of the storm. I’m going with my gut (and the GFS) on this one… little to no accumulation, a mainly rain event.

  22. Scott harris says:

    Hoping for something here in Madisonville Ky.

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