This Busy Pattern Won’t Slow Down

Good Monday, everyone. It’s a new week, but the same super-charged pattern remains for our part of the world. It’s one that will throw two more systems our way in the coming days, with the second system being another potent storm. Can we get some winter weather out of this “milder” setup? That’s a possibility.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward.

Some light snow may begin the day in the far south central and southeast. Regardless of that, the many areas that picked up ice and snow on Sunday will likely still be dealing with slick roads to begin the day. Watch those icy spots. Here’s regional radar to see if those light snows are in the southern areas to start the day…

Another weak system moves in here late Wednesday and may bring a few showers. There’s a chance for this to be in the form of some white stuff, but I’m not sold on that.

This will be  followed up by a massive upper low slowly spinning on top of us. That should crank up a powerhouse low pressure bringing heavy rain, wind and some thunder to us later Thursday into part of Friday. What happens after that depends on where the upper low decided to travel.

The Canadian has this thing spinning on top of us and then to the northeast, tapping cold air with wraparound snows late Friday and Saturday…

The new version of the GFS is very similar with this big storm…

The GFS keeps this mess more discombobulated  with a much smaller chance for wraparound flakes…

We will have to wait and see how this works out, but this is likely a big wind maker around here.

Next week looks like the potential for another big slow-moving storm system to develop. Check out this deepening trough moving in…

Normal updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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16 Responses to This Busy Pattern Won’t Slow Down

  1. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    We need 0 (zero, zilch, nada) rain right now here in southern West Virginia for a solid week if not longer. We received an unexpected foot of snow yesterday, and that’s on top of a already historically wet year. Sadly, it looks like yet another major storm is on the horizon for next weekend, and according to this forecast, yet another one next week, which is definitely not what we need right now. We do have a few dry days coming up, but I have my doubts that will be enough. Eastern Kentucky got hit much harder than predicted as well. The NWS in nearby Blacksburg, Virginia is saying 1-3 inches of rain in a 24-48 period next weekend. That, my friends, is trouble, especially if the storm next week materializes as well. Right now no precipitation at all rain or snow is needed at all. And as bad as Kentucky and West Virginia have been blasted, Virginia and the Carolinas have even been much harder than us with both rain and snow. 1 drop of rain down there will cause issues, much less than what is predicted. Wind will be bad too because the trees will be more likely to fall. It is a bad situation here right now. Everyone here will be on edge next weekend, and probably next week as well. Lord help us.

    • Matt says:

      This whole region desperately needs some dry out time, I don’t know if ive ever seen the ground so saturated in my life. And we’re just now heading into the active, wet time of year.. I could see some major flooding at some point this winter if it keeps up.

    • BubbaG says:

      More rain and no snow- at least we are on familiar and wet ground 😉 Seriously though, if we do get a heavy snow or ice event this could be the mother of all power outages, since the ground is so wet.

      This last model outlook folly should make it clear that the models are near worthless for snow outlooks and only treat them with any cred 48 hours in. Even then best to really pay cred for 24 hours in- presuming they are not waffling. CB must go nuts.

  2. Mike S says:

    Looking over storm reports, and I’m sure there are many that have not been reported, Harlan county had quite the spread. 4-8″ snowfall seemed common throughout, but downtown Harlan only a trace at about 1,200 feet above sea level? I think even Middlesboro had close to 4″ and I believe their elevation is somewhat similar there in adjacent Bell county.
    I have driven through Middlesboro and a portion of that Cumberland Gap region via that US-25 route. Simply beautiful. I can only imagine a winter wonderland scene in that area.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I won’t post on this blog anymore. But, I read Meteorologist Chris Bailey’s blog everyday and I think he does a tremendous job explaining the various weather models. I have learned a lot about meteorology since I found Chris’s blog around three years ago. We have a lot of winter to go through yet, so snow lovers don’t give up ! Have a great day Chris !

  4. B H says:

    Snow is pretty to look at and you have a lot of people wanting to see it. But just ride out with the men and women who have to work out in it making a living and may be you would not want to see it as much. If you have never had to work outside in the cold and hot you have no idea what it is like. I know what I’m saying I worked construction for over 40 years outside.

  5. Tom says:

    The models were so right on halting the northward progression of snow. Huntington had only light flurries. The official nws summary for Sunday shows 0.00 precip and 0.00 snowfall. Best wishes to Schroeder. His comments will be missed.

    • Bobt says:

      Even the models inside 24 hours were way off for many parts. Barely any snow in Knox Co. and a some of the models outside of the GFS was forecasting 10+ inches in the area. I think middlesboro might of moved to warning status for what turned out to be one inch of snow. The models are good for precipitation but really have a hard time with what type or turnover.

  6. Jimbo says:

    A short version of the next week and a half forecast. Heavy rain to backside flurries. Unbelievable on how consistent this scenario repeats itself.

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