A Very Active Setup Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s another flat out awesome day of weather across the Commonwealth, but changes are lurking for the week ahead. Those changes will bring about a very active setup as we watch a boundary hang around the region. Exactly where that boundary sets up will have a huge impact on our actual weather.

Our first system rolls in here on Monday with just a few showers possible. Temps may spike into the 60s again before any drops show up.

The front responsible for any shower action will get into the region then put the brakes on. A huge temperature gradient will show up from one side of the front to the other, with waves of low pressure rolling along the boundary. South of the boundary, spring like  readings will be noted and that will fuel heavy amounts of rain and even the potential for strong thunderstorms. North of the boundary, winter weather shows up.

The New version of the GFS continues to show the potential for strong storms and high water, with some winter weather to follow…

That would have another low behind it later next weekend. 7 day rainfall numbers are way up there…

The Canadian Model has a similar look and end result…

This whole pattern has a super active look to it as cold air reestablishes itself from late next week through the following week. Check out the 5 day means from the Euro Control…

The whole orientation of a ridge off the east coast and brutally cold air diving into the plains means this active storm track will continue. Excessive amounts of rain and snow show up with a look like that.

Updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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25 Responses to A Very Active Setup Ahead

  1. Prelude says:

    That’s a relief more rain I sure didn’t want the mud to start dehydrating

  2. Schroeder says:

    How bout enjoying the Super Bowl and all the food that goes with it. I think a break like this is much needed in what is going on in the world. GO PATRIOTS !!!!!!!

  3. Bobt says:

    Looks like 45 degrees is the lowest day time high that I’ve got until mid February and that is just fine with me. Very few days with a forecast high below 50. Hopefully Phil was right.. Bring on the spring train.

  4. Mike S says:

    Don’t see anything through mid-month to suggest any significant snowfall for the entire region…again. PNA way negative, NAO still neutral/positive.

  5. Mike S says:

    Don’t see anything to suggest significant snowfall through mid-month for the entire region…again. PNA way negative and NAO still neutral/positive

  6. Jimbo says:

    No Saturday afternoon or evening update. Not that I blame Mr. Bailey. Just goes to show what a bleak/ boring Winter this has been for snow lovers.

    • BubbaG says:

      The word snow this winter was taken over by action, active, rain, regional, wild and wintry. Oh, and the new Kings Island ride, The Polar Vortex. This is on the cusp of being our most wimpy snow winter. Even a decent ankle biter seems a lofty expectation for most in KY, and my one 6” to 8” event hope a stretch. That is unless another border event, not mainly KY- aka another regional snow.

  7. BH says:

    Bring on spring I’m ready for it.
    Any snow that comes now won’t be around long. Sun rays are feeling warmer to. What few days of sun we’d had. Even heard a few spring birds.

    • Bobt says:

      Yesterday just had a different feel to it. Odd that it somehow even smelled like a spring day if that is possible. Lol. I also heard birds chirping that I hadn’t heard in a while. Spring is just around the corner. I’m sure we will still get some cold days but winter is coming to an end here shortly.

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Snows really never hang around much anyway even in Jan..Our climo just ain’t that cold..The only snow you’ll see around long is in wal-mart parking lots when it actually snows..

  8. Rodger Dodger says:

    Terribly disappointing winter! Even the cold rain is getting warmer. Rodger in Dodger

  9. bgbecky says:

    shorts and flip flops for a whole week!!!! In the beginning of February!! Woo hoo!!!!

  10. Jason says:

    so much for a winter where “legends are made”. Maybe a big snow in late Feb/ early March is our best bet.

  11. Prelude says:

    Here we are at 12:30pm February 3rd and Louisville is warmer than Panama City Beach Florida.

    • Bobt says:

      No complaints from me. I like a good snow as much as anyone , but weather like todays is much more enjoyable than the cold and dry or the cold rain that we got in December and January. Just puts you in a better mood.

  12. The groundhog didn’t show up on the blog this year

  13. Jamie says:

    The sunlight is brighter today as we welcome in the month of February. I love this weather. Winter can take a hike.

  14. Winter Wonderland says:

    I would at least like to see a good decent snow here in the southern part of Ky. A beautiful snowfall without ice! Not a totally warm weather person.

  15. Snoopy says:

    Would like to see a good snow before winter is over here in southern part of Ky.

  16. Jessica says:

    Sadly our winter is already gone, I feel it

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