Tracking Storms and The Tropics

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a cold front marching across Kentucky, bringing some strong storms and cooler air with it. At the same time, the Gulf of Mexico is becoming active as Barry churns toward the Louisiana coast before the week is over. There continues to be a better than even chance this system impacts our weather by early next week.

Before we get to Barry, let’s talk about the storms rumbling across the state today. Some of these may be strong or severe, with high winds and hail as a possibility. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rains may cause flash flooding issues to develop.

Once the front moves through, Friday looks like a really nice day as temps and humidity levels come way down. I still can’t rule out a few storms across the far south and southeast. This nice stuff carries us into early Saturday, but the numbers start to inch up once again and a stray storm chance shows up. Storm chances may really increase on Sunday as we get some offshoot moisture from the Gulf system.

Ok, let’s talk about the tropics. Here’s the current Sat shot of the developing system…

Barry is likely to become a hurricane before coming ashore along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Here’s the latest information and track forecast from the NHC…

cone graphic

As far as some of the computer models go. The various hurricane models continue to edge a little east and show the potential for this system to impact our region…

Here are the latest tracks from the GFS Ensembles…

I made this map a few days ago and I’m still rolling with it…

The best chance for some tropical rains would be from Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Let’s get back to the weather out there today. Here are your storm tracking toys…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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24 Responses to Tracking Storms and The Tropics

  1. BH says:

    I think most people who comment on this site are snow lovers and not thunderstorm enthusiasts. Mention Snow on here and look out. Have a good day.

  2. Terry says:

    I love it all but it is so dang hard to get a good snow it seems. Other than both 2014 and 2015, you have to go back to the 1990s since we got a foot or a foot plus of snow in SE KY.

    • Schroeder says:

      Terry, why do you think that is ? In my opinion I feel it’s the warming of the Oceans especially the Gulf of Mexico due to the last Solar cycle ?

  3. Bus Haynes says:

    Terry I love to see it snow. Just something about it that I always liked. I hated to see it change to rain as a kid. I think Global warming is having an effect on our weather in the Ohio Valley. It’s just not like it use to be. I will say the weather this summer is closer to what we use to have. Sunny and hot and pop up thunderstorms.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Yeah, I’m interested in all the weather events but snowstorms and blizzards are what I study the most. Tornadoes are a fascinating study as well as hurricanes.

    • Terry says:

      As a weather geek, I love all weather:) Every now and then though, even I like a sunny break. Lately, it hasn’t rained everyday so I am fine with some t-storms.

  5. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    It appears that the long range models were wrong again.
    No cool air.

  6. Schroeder says:

    The Old Farmer’s Almanac has release it’s first draft 2019-2020 ” Winter forecast ” and it’s calling for a very cold Winter in the Northeast with much above normal snowfall for that region and of course the Great Lakes States. Did not mention the Ohio Valley region. Last Winter they nailed it for our region. ” Warmer and wetter than normal. ” You got to give them that.

  7. Looks like my backyard got skipped by this batch of rain too. Only 1 measurable rain in 16 days. At least the lawn won’t need mowed for awhile longer-but something needs to help with the allergies. Next hope looks to be Barry.

    • Mike S says:

      I’m with you here in Valley Station, just southwest of Louisville. I’ve only had two rain events in 16 days for a whopping total of 0.39″. With the 90+ degree heat, ground is drying out quicker. Even my rain barrel is at its lowest point since I’ve owned it for the past 4 years.

      • Feederband says:

        My rain barrel is dry. I have a lot of hot peppers in containers and the barrel doesn’t last long with this heat. I’m getting another barrel.

  8. Schroeder says:

    Have a great afternoon and evening everyone !

  9. Bobt says:

    I wish I could of shared some of our rain with you. Counting today it has rained 11 out of 14 days in my section of Knox County with many of the days having torrential downpour in downtown. The mesonet section of the county didn’t get as much rain as the town did. Andy on here got very little one day and just a few miles down from him the city streets were flooded because the drains couldn’t take in all the water fast enough.

    • Andy Rose says:

      I have gotten 1.87 inches of rain in my backyard today.

      • Terry says:

        As typical, I didn’t get a drop this evening as the storms got sheared to death by my mts. You all got hit good down your way.

    • Terry says:

      The mountains shear a lot away from Harlan during “pop up” storm season but I am running about normal for July but was above normal in June and definitely on the year!

  10. Teacher T says:

    So dark here in West Irvine a little while ago, street lights came on. After that a pure “gully washer”! Still thundering and water running through my backyard like a river!

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