Eyeing A Weak Front and Hurricane Dorian

Good Friday, everyone. Our long Labor Day Weekend is kicking off with a weak cold front approaching the state from the north. This boundary will try to hang around into the next few days, but the big weather story is Hurricane Dorian. This storm is becoming another monster and has a chance to influence our weather.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds may be thicker across the north as this front near. It could also spit out a shower or storm late today into the evening…

This boundary slips a littler farther south on Saturday, bringing that small chance for a shower or storm with it and that looks to continue through Labor Day…

The big weather story is Hurricane Dorian that continues to churn toward the Bahamas and Florida. This storm is growing into a monster…

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

With high pressure building to the north of Dorian, this storm will start to bend more west over the next few days. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

This storm reminds me a lot of Hurricane Andrew from 1992. I’m not saying it gets quite to that level or gets as far west as Andrew did, but it looks may look the part as it approaches Florida.

Here are the latest Hurricane Model forecasts…

The GFS Ensembles…

The latest operational models are of similar thinking with this powerful storm turning more north once into Florida, then working along the southeastern seaboard…

GFS

Canadian

The post-landfall track is still very much up in the air, but the track toward Florida isn’t. That’s just a very unsettling look, folks.

Make it a great day and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to Eyeing A Weak Front and Hurricane Dorian

  1. TennMark says:

    Wow, Dorian is already up to 105mph this morning. It seems to be moving away from earlier shear and most of the earlier dry air. With Dorian’s current track taking it closer to Lake Okeechobee, can’t help thinking of the horrific Okeechobee storm over ninety years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

    Chris Bailey mentioned Hurricane Andrew. I was eight at the time, and seeing the endless tv coverage of the destruction was unnerving. Especially images of that Homestead FL mobile home park that was obliterated by the extreme winds. My thoughts and prayers are with those in the Bahamas (now under a Hurricane Watch) and Florida.

    At least it’s gorgeous weather in our part of the world for now. Nashville TN currently in the low 60s, even lower dewpoints. Have a good day everybody.

  2. Schroeder says:

    You can thank Hurricane Dorian for our beautiful weather here. Any weather forecaster predicting any precipitation today for our area like the NWS is way off the beam in my opinion.

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Curious..Why should we thank Dorian for our current weather?

      • Schroeder says:

        Cold-Rain I learned this from a meteorologist years ago when there is hurricane activity in the Atlantic it tends to effect our area by drying out the upper atmosphere. See the water vapor loop it shows up really well.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, you do realize the NWS in Louisville has a very vast viewing area that they cover many county’s in Southern Indiana and Kentucky. There is a reason why the NWS has a very slight chance of thunderstorm activity from the I-64 corridor and points north it’s called a weak cold front that will get hung up in southern Indiana the next few days. The weather we’re experiencing right now has nothing to do with hurricane Dorian.

      • Schroeder says:

        Yes it does Prelude. I learned this from the late Meteorologist Marcia Yockey out of Evansville, Indiana back in the 1960’s. To date no meteorologist has even come close to her accuracy.

        • Prelude says:

          Hurricane Dorian has no affect at all on the present weather we’re having right now down the road probably but as of the weather we’re experiencing today nope

  3. Schroeder says:

    I’am hoping the inverted trough just south of the Florida Keys will take Dorian away from Florida’s southeast coast and follow the warm Gulf stream and out into the Atlantic away from any land, that would be the best case scenario. The worse case scenario is that Hurricane Dorian stalls or slows down over warmer than normal waters and gains strength possibly becoming a category 5 and make land fall near the Florida Keys and head north northwest and inter the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. From there who knows what will happen.

  4. Andy Rose says:

    I’m enjoying these morning temps in the 50s this past few days

    • Schroeder says:

      The next several days look nice for our area but the Farms in our area still need RAIN. Being an agriculturist it is too late in my county even if we get rain.

  5. Cold-Rain says:

    Looks like Dorian is getting bigger .South quadrant is expanding..Should see an eye soon..Sure not looking good for Florida..

    • Schroeder says:

      Yeah, I just checked the latest satellite loop and this hurricane is growing with just a hint of an eye wall forming but meteorologist still can’t get a handle on where this is going. It is giving everyone anxiety. Why don’t they (whoever they are) make weather computers faster.

      • Mike S says:

        They will still give you several favorable tracks, just faster….

        • Schroeder says:

          Still they don’t know Mike S. It is now down to three tracts. One track takes it into the Gulf. The other takes it into Florida and on north, and the last track takes it along the Florida east coast and making landfall somewhere in Georgia. Take your pick. I feel there are a few sick people out there making bets on where the hurricane will make landfall disgusting.

  6. Schroeder says:

    Hurricane Camille had 259 deaths reported in August 1969. Hurricane Andrew had 65 deaths reported in. I attribute this to better public awareness.

  7. Cold-Rain says:

    GFS has the ridge breaking down earlier..Hopefully it’s right and weakens sooner sparing the folks in Florida a lot of headaches..

  8. Schroeder says:

    That’s good news but the GFS accuracy is questionable. Someone out there that studies Hurricanes probably knows exactly where this storm is going. I wish they would come forward with the information. I find Hurricanes interesting to track but my main interest is in tracking snowstorms which seem to be very few and far between anymore. As I was writing the above, Hurricane Dorian has now been upgraded to a category 3.

  9. Schroeder says:

    I have been following the track of Hurricane Dorian all day long and now I don’t know anymore than I did this morning except the storm is getting larger and stronger.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *