Slowly Changing It Up

Good Sunday, folks. Temps are on the rise over the next few days, but the pattern continues to slowly evolve from obnoxious heat to one more typical for this time of year. How fast this happens over the next week largely depends on the evolution of the tropics.

Temperatures out there today are back deep into the 80s, but humidity levels stay pretty decent.

Temps then increase to the upper 80s and low 90s on Monday as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. That front may spark a shower or thunderstorm from late in the day into Monday night…

The GFS keeps that front and a couple of thunderstorms hanging tough into Tuesday…

Temps should come down a bit behind this boundary, but the numbers are still well above normal through next week.

Humberto continues to increase well to the east of Florida and should become a hurricane today. The track of this storm continues to trend farther and farther to the east…

cone graphic

The farther east this storm trends and the faster it goes, the better it is for us to change the pattern around here. The models are already responding to this farther east track by bringing a weak front in here by the end of the week. A deeper trough then digs in behind that next weekend or early the following week…

This could bring one heck of a cool shot to our part of the world.

We will still have to watch for additional tropical development behind Humberto…

The behavior of those systems can play a role in shaping the overall pattern across North America over the next few weeks.

I’ll get into the hot September talk and what it means for fall and winter with my next update. Make it a great day and take care.


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6 Responses to Slowly Changing It Up

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Looks like the streak of 90 degree weather will continue for my area.

    • Troy says:

      yep. looks like no end in sight. I have a sinking feeling this heat will ease off for a day or two and then return well into October.

  2. Cold-Rain says:

    Hot September,Cold November..

  3. Illinois Mike says:

    There’s been no shortage of rain here in NE Illinois and the Chicago Metro area. Since Friday, most areas here have received a total of between 1 1/2 inches to 3 inches of rain, with the rain coming Friday morning and Sunday morning. Not really any severe weather, just a widespread heavy rain, with an occasional flash of lightning.

    Wish I could send some of our rain down to you folks in Kentucky, since you’ve been so dry this month.

  4. BubbaG says:

    CB, why no mention of drought, since that is what we are in? The rain keeps missing, so a “few showers” appears to be very few.

  5. Mike S says:

    I have no problem using the Palmer crop moisture index, a short term look at surplus/deficiency.
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif
    Contrary to what CB has stated about meteorologists using only the Palmer Drought Severity Index addressing ‘real’ drought, our Louisville Mets seem to have no issue referencing the Drought Monitor and thereby addressing the CURRENT status of our agricultural interests.
    Another practical chart is the Topsoil Moisture Monitoring site…
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/topsoil.shtml

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