A Better Brand Of Air Blows In

Good Tuesday, my fellow weather weenies. We have a weak cold front on top of the region today and it’s bringing a little better brand of air to town. This may also touch off a scattered shower or storm as our above normal temperature pattern hangs around. I’ll look for any signs of true fall weather and look farther down the road with one of the winter seasonal models.

As is usually the case, we begin with the precious present. Today’s front isn’t very active but may touch off a scattered shower or thunderstorm in the far west or south, but don’t hold your breath on it…

Hurricane Humberto continues to push farther east out to sea, but the storm appears to be slowing down as it does so…

cone graphic

That slow movement continues to clog up the pattern behind it across North America. Notice how we do get in on more of a east to northeast flow over the next few days…

The farther east you are in Kentucky, the more pleasant it will be. The farther west, the warmer. Can we squeeze out an isolated shower or storm? Maybe.

Further complicating matters is a system near Texas and a stronger system out in the Atlantic that may develop…

The Atlantic system is handled differently by the models and that impacts how strong a late weekend cold front would be…

GFS

Canadian

The tropics continue to be the bully on the block that’s ready to take on all challengers.

Looking farther down the road…

One of the many seasonal models I look at is the Canadian. The latest run shows the propensity for a ridge in the west and a trough in the east from November through March. Check out the month by month progression…

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

The trough really deepens in JANUARY…

FEBRUARY

MARCH

If you’re a winter weather lover, you would love to lock that look in and roll with it. Of course, it’s only a seasonal model and will likely change with the next update at the end of the month. Other seasonal models don’t agree with this, but do they ever agree on anything? 🙂

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.


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9 Responses to A Better Brand Of Air Blows In

  1. BubbaG says:

    This drought is even less fun than rain every other day for months like we had. Droughts are lame! Rain dance.

  2. Mike S says:

    July 6, 2019 Palmer Drought Index
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/weekly-palmers/20190706

    September 24, 2019 Palmer Drought Index
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/weekly-palmers/20190914

    That’s a significant move for a long term reference such as the Palmer Drought Index, going from extremely moist to moderately moist in just 2 months

  3. Mike S says:

    Inez KY in Martin County has set a new dry streak record. A few more records could fall this week.

  4. Mark says:

    I just wonder when CB will start discussing the short-term drought in more detail? It’s no longer a “perspective” thing, but a factual.

    Sadly, this coming weekend’s rain chance isn’t looking so great today. I’m sure the models will struggle over the next few days deciphering how great of a chance comes are way, but as long as the ridge of death holds strong, widespread rain chances (and cooler weather) aren’t good. Ironically, the CPC 6-10 day outlook has a 40% chance of above normal rainfall into the lower OV, but with only average confidence in their forecast. Let’s hope that trough / cold front has more push and can squash the ridge, but the odds aren’t great right now.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB seems not to be a fan of drought talk. Hence my jokes during the rain months that wouldn’t be ironic if there’s a drought this year. Jinx!

  5. Andy Rose says:

    Another 90 degree day slightly better than yesterday

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