A Few Changes Roll In

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s dry and it’s much warmer than normal. That’s been the case for each and every day so far for the month of September. But, a few changes are showing up over the next few days. These changes mean cooler temps and even a stray shower or thunderstorm.

We are watching the eastern sky today for some clouds working against the grain. This is courtesy of a disturbance working from east to west and this may produce a shower or storm. The best chance is across the south and southeast…

Temps will be very warm in the west and could flirt with 90. Lots of middle 80s show up elsewhere.

Cooler winds come at us on Thursday and we have to be on guard for some low clouds and even a few stray showers. If those clouds do stick around, temps could be held in the 70s and that’s exactly what the NAM is showing…

Friday has the makings of a pretty nice weather day with fairly low humidity and near normal temps as a weak high builds in from the east…

Temps recover some as we head into the weekend as our flow becomes southwesterly. This is ahead of a front that sweeps in here late Sunday into Monday. This looks to give us the best chance for rain in nearly a month. It may also be followed by another system…

That’s a much better looking setup for temps and rainfall, so let’s hope it pans out.

Let’s head back to the tropics to see how things are playing out because the tropics will continue have a lot to say about the upcoming pattern. Humberto continues to slide toward Bermuda then harmlessly out to sea…

cone graphic

As expected, the system behind it is strengthening and should become a hurricane in the coming days. The track on this may take it toward the Caribbean by the weekend…

cone graphic

The system we talked about developing near Texas did just that and is bringing major floods to areas around Houston.

Have a great day and take care.

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38 Responses to A Few Changes Roll In

  1. Bryan says:

    And the Groundhog Day (movie) pattern continues. Absolutely nothing on the horizon to suggest a change. It really doesn’t worse than this.

  2. Mike S says:

    Someone’s forecast is going to bust big time for Thursday/Friday. The NAM, along with other models have been grossly underachieving the high temperatures due to dry ground. Anyone using these models have been burned lately. Again, like I’ve said before, this has been one of the worst pieces of forecasting in recent memory. I wished I would have made a table/chart showing forecast high temperatures and the actual numbers for August and September. I do know that some high temperatures have been off by as much as 8-10 degrees from forecasts 24-48 hours out. And it looks like it will happen again. Mid to upper 80’s are forecast by NWS for Louisville and Lexington. NAM…Mid 70’s to near 80? Wow! At least some local Mets are playing it safe and splitting the difference. Yet, some are still spitting out 90 – 92 degrees for Thursday/Friday. Again, not reliable forecasting lately.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Prelude, check out September 2, 2019 at 6:55 pm. How could this post go through ? You would have to know my personal e-mail address ? Mr. Bailey this is serious and I want answers immediately !!!

    • Bryan says:

      I’m sure the FBI and NSA are looking into this Schroeder.

      Don’t you have anything else to do in life besides troll a weather blog? Kinda sad if you think about it.

      • SpaceGhost says:


      • Mike S says:

        When I think of a troll, I imagine someone stirring up trouble. Many of his initial comments give praise to CB’s posts, alluding to CB’s tireless dedication to this forum. While his comments seem to rail against what others think, I honestly do not believe he is intentionally stirring up trouble. You, on the other hand, should be setting a better example. The only one stirring up trouble today is….?

      • Schroeder says:

        I’ve stop posting about the weather on this blog because I was a distraction not a troll. It has been better for all here lately. However it makes me sad that I can’t say anything on this blog without being humiliated worldwide.

  4. Mike S says:

    GEFS teleconnections PNA seemed to be all in for a cool down for several days after the first day of Fall. Now, they have turned, tail-tucked, establishing the ridge through the rest of the month into the first of next month

  5. Schroeder says:

    How did Prelude get my e-mail address if it wasn’t from the owner of this blog ? It clearly states on this blog that “Your email address will not be published” To me that means no one can get your personal information. So what is it ?

    • Mark says:

      It sounds like someone just copied your name. A person can comment using any name they want to.

      • Schroeder says:

        Thanks Mark for clearing that up. I feel that a blog’s comment section should have rules against anyone deliberately hurting and humiliating someone personally for the whole world to read for their entertainment. We should all get along even if we make mistakes and just discuss the weather with each other and respect every ones comments.

        • Prelude says:

          Schroeder, as usual I absolutely and literally have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about.

          • Mike S says:

            I think he’s referring to your profile pic next to his name on September 2 at 6:55 p.m. in the comments section

            • Schroeder says:

              That’s right Mike S. Prelude I want to know how you got my e-mail address that’s all ?

              • Prelude says:

                Schroeder, with all do respect I don’t have your e-mail address or anyone else’s on the blog. As far as my profile pic next to your comment. I don’t know how that happen nor do I care.

                • Schroeder says:

                  My brother owns this computer and he lets me use it as long as I pay the monthly bill. The e-mail account is in his name and when he saw Schroeder next to your picture he got very upset and I got very angry. Prelude, you better start caring as tomorrow my brother is going to e-mail Chris Bailey and find out why Schroeder appeared next to your picture. Sorry, for all this mess everyone but, this can only happen to me.

        • Mark says:

          I agree. I’ve criticized CB lately on his lack of attention to the dry conditions, but that doesn’t mean I don’t respect him as a person and meteorologist. There’s disagreeing, then there is flat out trolling someone. Unfortunately, sometimes the two can appear to overlap each other. It’s ok to question someone on something said (or not said), but try to keep it light-hearted or not too serious. We are all weather weenies, thus we all get worked up from time to time. Plus, you have to be thick-skinned to be in the weather business.

          • Schroeder says:

            Mark, I tried to get a post through by changing my name and it was rejected. I’m sure that you have to use your name that corresponds to your e-mail address. Now, I don’t have an ( I phone) and I’m on DSL which is slow. Thoughts ?

  6. MarkLex says:

    Friday a weak HIGH builds in from the east? Haven’t we been under a strong high for what feels like an eternity? Isn’t the “ridge” essentially the Bermuda High? No? I guess I’m reading that and mentally processing it wrong? I guess my brain is asking: How can a weak high build in on top of an already existing High?

  7. Aspen says:

    This is the first time I have ever posted on this blog but I read it faithfully every day. I get so aggravated when I see the rude comments being made to Schroeder. There is no excuse for belligerent and arrogant comments with intentions of hurting others. Not everyone has to agree but we all need to agree to disagree. This should be a friendly weather discussion not a demeaning hurtful conversation. I know absolutely nothing about weather but I enjoy CB blog every day and I also enjoy the other posts from everyone when it’s done tastefully. Schroeder I hope you continue to comment and I hope you ignore the nonsense that’s not worth paying attention to anyway.
    Now with that being said I hope everyone has a fabulous rest of your hump day Wednesday.

    • Prelude says:

      Aspen, Schroeder came directly after me and accused me of something I had no part in at all. But to the few Schroeder supporters like yourself that’s perfectly justified. Unreal smh

    • Bryan says:

      Little do you know, but Schroeder enjoys the art of trolling. He even trolls Chris, then plays victim.

  8. Schroeder says:

    See, the late Marcia Yockey was correct in saying ” that if the Atlantic is active the weather you have now you will keep” It is getting to the point now of being a serious late Summer heat wave and drought. Reminds me of 1986.

  9. Schroeder says:

    I’m through with this “Blog” I may comment from time to time if we ever get any change in the weather pattern.

  10. Troy says:

    Good God……this comment section has turned into something worse than Facebook ever thought of being……and that’s ridiculously bad. All drama centered around one person and it has gotten extremely old, extremely quick.

  11. Andy Rose says:

    Streak of 90s continues for my area

  12. Mark says:

    Marc Weinburg, chief meteorologist of WDRB in Louisville, says the strong ridge is a direct result of the drought. Until we get substantial rain, the ridge will remain in place. Hmmm… not totally accurate. First off, the short-term drought only covers a small portion of the area under the influence of the ridge. Secondly, a ridge doesn’t form just because it’s dry. How much influence has the tropics had on this ridge? It seems maybe Dorian might have been the catalyst to set this ridge in motion with the strong subsidence occurring on the outer peripheries of the storm. Also, troughs entering the western and northern US don’t quite have the jet stream push yet to traverse the entire country, so a strong ridge locked in place over the eastern US can be hard to display early on in the fall season. That’s one reason why September and October are typically the driest months of the year in the OV, although the dryness can vary significantly from year to year. Last year was the wettest September on record, yet is was also very warm / hot. Mid 90’s occurred last year at this time despite the very wet ground.

  13. Aspen says:

    Prelude, I mean no harm like I said I just read the comments I never post anything. I feel you have a great knowledge of the weather, I wished I did but I don’t!!! And as far as being a supporter, that’s a big negative, that’s actually crazy, I was just being humane and not rude, sorry for trying to be decent, that’s JUSTIFIED,

  14. Ray says:

    Rarely do I comment, and I just mostly follow. I have followed this blog for only God knows how long, and I have never seen so much drama in my life. Absolutely unbelievably insane!!! All this drama needs to go

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