A Little Rain and A Lot Cooler

Good Monday, folks. A true September cold front is rolling across the state today, bringing a few showers and storms and much cooler temps. This is the first of two fronts set to impact our region this week, but more heat is lurking to end the month. In addition to all this, I’m going to throw another seasonal model your way as it looks deper into fall and winter. Woot!

Today’s front is bringing some much needed rain, but this isn’t a soaker and some areas won’t see very much at all. Still, it’s better than nothing. Here are your Monday trackers…

Much cooler winds are blowing and these winds are gusty as temps stay in the 70s. With clearing skies tonight, temps may drop into the upper 40s and low 50s for many areas. That sets the stage for a very nice Tuesday with readings in the mid 70s for many. Lows by Wednesday morning should be in similar range with Tuesday.

The next system is then set to impact the area later Wednesday and Thursday with our next chance for some rain…

Temps continue to run close to normal until the weekend when another surge of September sizzle moves in. This will likely last into early October and could give us near record or record highs. Though, this setup isn’t looking quite as strong as before. One of the reasons could be because the tropics continue to be on fire…

I don’t think we’ve seen the last threat to the United States.

Let’s talk about the rest of fall and upcoming winter. As you know, one of the first things I look at is the state of the oceans across the globe. The water temps continue to run warm across pretty much the entire Northern Hemisphere. One area that adds an odd to the look of things is along the Equatorial Pacific as a string of cooler water has developed…

That’s one of three items of interest to me. The other is the warm water off the east coast and all that warm water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. The warm water off the east coast was, in my mind, one of the reasons that kept that ridge so strong across the southeast last winter. The water there is beginning to cool and is much cooler than this same point last year, arguing for a weaker ridge or no ridge at all.

The water off the west coast to Alaska is MUCH warmer than this same point last year. The seasonal models continue to keep that water warm and continue to cool the water off the east coast. Here’s the latest JAMSTEC ocean temp anomalies for December-February…

That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska is a thing of beauty for winter loves and was the prime driver in those harsh winters of 13/14 and 14/15.

If you look at the Atlantic, you can see the warmest waters are well out into the middle of the Atlantic. That would argue for a weak to non-existent WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge).

Here’s how the JAMSTEC sees this fall and winter for temps and precip…

Given how hot this September is, the model is suggesting things turn much colder relative to normal for the second half of fall. It also suggests a wetter pattern taking shape. You can also see the winter temps with the cold controlling much of the country with near normal precip around here. Based on the ocean profiles it’s forecasting, that makes sense. Obviously, it’s a seasonal model to be taken with a grain of salt, but they do provide clues for us to look at. AND… it would follow the 1939 analog this fall is already mirroring around here.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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10 Responses to A Little Rain and A Lot Cooler

  1. Mike S says:

    Thanks CB for adding to yesterday’s post about the 1939 analog. I’m a huge fan of analogs but when I read the post from yesterday, there seemed to be a geocentric presentation that since Lexington had such and such days in the 90’s and drier than normal precipitation in 1939, it could follow they will have a snowy winter like 1939. However, I have to know what was it like in Seattle WA, Boston MA, Atlanta GA, and Dallas TX in 1939, and then reach out farther into western Europe on the other side of the Pond, then venture near the International Date Line looking at the Philippines, Japan, and Siberia to get a true flavor of any correlation how the GLOBAL weather patterns aligned in 1939 and compare that to September 2019, not just what happened at 38.04 N latitude and 84.50 W longitude in the middle of Fayette County, KY.

  2. Mike S says:

    Louisville’s official 27-day dry streak ends….drenching 0.04″ so far today. Where’s my rubber boots?

  3. Bryan says:

    I’m launching a blue ribbon commission that will do all the necessary fact finding in the mysterious case of Schroeder’s name appearing by Prelude’s avatar.

    Join me as together we will make Mr Chris Bailey’s blog a secure site and bring justice, peace and love to the interweb.

  4. Winterlover says:

    Thanks CB for all you do. Interesting post today only time will tell what mother nature has in store for us this winter.

  5. Mike S says:

    ‘Officially’, Lexington’s dry streak remains intact at 26 days as just a Trace fell earlier…(Mesonet observation recorded 0.05″ though)

  6. TennMark says:

    I was told there was a shower before lunch (my window-less office is in an interior part of my workplace). The parking lot was already dry upon stepping outside, but an outdoor paper flyer few blocks away was still wet so guess that’s decent circumstantial evidence of rain 😉 . Radar sure showed that line weakening from earlier.

    Nashville’s BNA airport has received a whopping 0.01 inch so far today. Whatever rain that might have accumulated in my cheap plastic rain gauge at the house had evaporated by the time I got back home.

  7. Winterlover says:

    NOAA jus came out the temp outlook tell Oct thru Dec will be above normal. Not suprise due the fact all that can change in a flash.

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