Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Rain is getting ready to develop and roll our way, but the focus is on a big temp drop and the potential for some Tuesday into Tuesday night. The exact location of a swath of accumulating snow is still to be determined. ๐Ÿ™‚

I have no changes to my earlier map for the best snowfall odds…

Some of the late afternoon guidance shifted quite a bit farther to the west, but a few other models held tight to a more eastern and southeastern event. I really don’t like the 18z runs of any particular model on any given day because they seem to be more jumpy than the typical 0z or 12z runs.

Still, they can sniff out trends and that’s what we will be watching for on the 0z runs that will start shortly.

Here’s a sampling of the 18z runs of the models…


GFS Snowfall

Short Range Canadian only goes through Tuesday evening…

Snow map from that run…

The NAM…

The snowfall map from the NAM continues to be on steroids…

The European Model…

Snowfall from the European Model…

We are now within the 48 hour window, but I would like to see better model agreement before putting out a First Call Map. Here’s hoping we see that with the next round of runs.

I will have all that in my next update later tonight. Have a good one and take care.

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14 Responses to Sunday Evening Update

  1. BlizzardTim says:

    Well maybe Iโ€™ll get some snow down here in S. E. Tennessee.. been a long time since my yard has had any good snow

  2. Andy Rose says:

    This is the forecast currently for my area
    Rain. Temperature falling to around 45 by 5pm. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
    Tuesday Night
    Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Low around 28. North northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. It seems more than reasonable.

    • Terry says:

      For Harlan:


      Rain. Temperature falling to around 37 by 5pm. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

      Tuesday Night

      Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 26. North northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

      • Andy Rose says:

        so half to 1 inch between the 2 of us seems news worthy. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        • Terry says:


          Too dang warm. That will be the biggest issue with this system. Hopefully, we get more than an inch but those crazy totals of 6 plus on the models is less than a percent chance likely.

  3. Russell says:

    I sure hope this winter isnt a replay of last winter and the rain trains.

  4. Jim B says:

    Go with the Euro folks, it is more in line with our winter trends around here, that will not be broken this winter, it is what is, but hopefully we donโ€™t walk around in mud all winter.

  5. nasdaq says:

    awaiting the 00z rgem & Nam runs. Even the GFS has become juicer, in its latest runs. Won’t take much for the biggest snow in years here in Whitley. All models show alot of snow flying but alot of that isn’t sticking, and I’m ok with that. Nice to have flakes flying in December, GFS shows even more snow possibilities up to Christmas ๐Ÿ™‚ Exciting to be talking about snow in December for a change

  6. msd says:

    NWS Morristown doesn’t like our chances for snow here in the East TN valley. Says the cold air always comes later than forecast (they are right). But the fact that it is happening at night should help somewhat.

  7. Mr.Peabody says:

    Anyone get Named.Take it by the silence Nam more in-line with rest of models.

  8. Mike says:

    I’m digging this! Hopefully everyone gets 6 inches of snow or more…

    I’m recovering from a reconstructed ankle and on crutches – shoveling and of course sledding while non weight-bearing will be a hoot! (Actually, my wife won’t come anywhere close ot letting me do that!)

  9. Cold-Rain says:

    Wonder if us folks in SE Ky will get the rug pulled out again..Some nice hits showing on all of modeling now..Gfs showing 5-6 inches as is all other modeling..Figure about half of that which is still a nice event for this time of year..Guess we find out soon..

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