Good Monday, everybody. It’s full steam ahead toward a winter weather event moving in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely bring snow and sleet to a good portion of the region and the potential is there for several inches for some. That said, I’m still trying to figure out exactly where to draw the lines, so no WST just yet. That may change with the next update. 🙂

We have rain pushing across the state today as mild temps continue. There’s even the chance for a little bit of thunder.

As far as the Tuesday-Tuesday night winter weather is concerned, let’s keep this map rolling…

Before we take a look at the latest models,here are a few thoughts:

  • Temps crash from west to east tonight into early Tuesday.
  • Rain will change to a wintry mix of sleet and snow then to snow as the cold moves in and a weak wave develops along the boundary.
  • Exactly where this happens still has some wiggle room, but much of the precipitation is into central and eastern Kentucky when this takes place.
  • Snowfall numbers of a few to several inches will be possible, especially in the southeast.
  • Sleet may also show up and if it does, it will cut into the snowfall numbers.
  • Whatever happens with this, it’s going to have a big time cutoff line on the western side of it all.
  • A First Call For Snowfall map comes later today.

As far as the models are concerned, we didn’t see much change in the respective models compared to what they were showing earlier.

The GFS continues to show a more widespread event…

GFS Snow Map

The Euro continues to be less widespread and less impressed…

Euro Snow Map

I won’t lie, the Euro was the only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger with this update. I have to give it some respect, but it’s still a nice snow in the southeast.

The Canadian Model is a little more like the GFS…  Canadian Snow Map

The Short Range Canadian continues to hit this harder than most of the models…

Short Range Canadian Snow Map

Here’s the sleet map from that same run

The NAM is in a similar boat…

NAM Snow Map

NAM Sleet Map

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your Monday rain tracking toys to keep you company…

toys…

Make it a good one and take care.