First Call For Snowfall

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a windy and sometimes wet day across the bluegrass state as we get ready for a blast of winter weather. This moves in on Tuesday and carries us into Tuesday night with rain changing to sleet and snow then snow.

I’m taking a conservative approach with my First Call For Snowfall…

You can see the headlines I’ve added to the map. We will see one heck of a cutoff on the western side of this and pinpointing where this sets up is a pain in the keester. We will also see rain change to sleet and snow. How long it stays sleet in any one location will impact totals. I’ve added a locally higher to the 1″-4″ region in case some of these areas switch a little quicker. Again, this is a First Call, not a Last Call. I guarantee I will be making adjustments to the lines and totals before the day is over. 🙂

It is interesting to note the WPC is highlighting a large chunk of the state with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The GFS continues to be right in line with this thinking…

If we take that map and match it with the average from the 21 member SREF, we find a very similar look…

Again, that’s smoothed out because it’s averaging 21 different runs.

The Canadian Model isn’t too far off from the GFS and SREF…

The Short Range Canadian is also similar…

 The NAM continues to target southeastern Kentucky with the snow and sleet. This run looks choppy with the snowfall…

Here’s the sleet forecast from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is also targeting the southeastern part of the state with the best snow potential…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and on KWC later this evening. In the meantime, here are your radars to keep you company…

Make it a good one and take care.


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45 Responses to First Call For Snowfall

  1. Jim B says:

    When does the new Euro come out?

  2. Ricvice says:

    Jim I think at 1:30pm EST

  3. WM says:

    I feel sure there will be no snow in my neck of the woods in Salvisa. Just cold, damp, muddy nastiness.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Well Winter Lover looks like we are going to get gyp again on this go around. I hope the southeast part of the state gets more moisture and they would get a foot of snow. That part of the state gets the most snow anyway. I think for us here in western and central Kentucky that the chances for a big time snowstorm this coming Winter is slim to none. We need a weak El nino in the right location in the south Pacific for us to get a real deal Snow event that trains like we had back in December 1969. Signed disappointed Schroeder.

    • Troy says:

      For the past couple of years. central and western KY has well more than quadrupled the amount of snowfall we have received in southern and SE KY so no, we dont get the most snow…that title usually goes to central

      • Terry says:

        Again, everyone thinks we get a ton of snow due to higher elevations…problem is, one has to live up high to see it and less than 10% of our population lives over 2,000ft up….always a misconception when the SE KY VALLEY LOCATED MESONETS, are often warmer than many other areas in Central and West KY. LOL.

        • Schroeder says:

          Terry, I have a good feeling that you will receive a very heavy snowfall that will stick on everything because it’s going to fall fast and hard. Chris was talking about a surface low on the front and the negative energy from the northwest will phase and give southeast Kentucky a big time snowstorm. If I’m right go out and build a Snowman.

      • Schroeder says:

        I’ve been living in Taylor county hills for twelve years now and only saw one snowstorm that total about 16 inches, however didn’t last long because it was in late February. I built a Snowman and took a picture of it to hang on the wall next to the Christmas tree. I’m looking at it right now. I’m almost sure but I hope not that it’s going to be my last snowstorm, but I have seen many in my lifetime.

    • Ricvice says:

      Totally agree Schroeder. In the late 60s and 77-78 we had a weak El-Nino in place which gave us some of the most memorable snow events that we both remember . Also it is interesting to note that during alot of our above winters the sunspot cycle had came out of its 11 year cycle low and was about halfway to the maximum number. We are just starting to go up after almost 0 sunspot activity for the past couple of years.
      (

  5. Debbie says:

    Well, even though I absolutely know I’m the biggest snow lover here on the blog(almost since it’s inception..Okaaayyy…maybe not the BIGGEST??! LOL! 😉 ) This kinda looks like one of those “Coin Toss” snowfalls where, if ya git it, ya GIT IT??! I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m rooting for Terry and all the SE KY folks that love it and have been waiting for it to just smother & cover them. I don’t look for much here right along the BG Pkwy in Bardstown, but I’ll remain hopeful?! 🙂

    • Terry says:

      Thanks my friend! I hope you get some too this season:)

      • Debbie says:

        It kinda sucks to be a big-time snow freak in KY, doesn’t it, Terry? 😀 I know there will be (might be…) some here that are all like, “Well, YOU get more than WE do!?”-whatever…but that’s not anywhere close to the truth.(Just opinions…lol!) I’m 57, I’ve seen a LOT of snowstorms through the years, and I’m like a lot of us now-it’s been a while? Sure, the last couple of years I’ve seen a few where we got dumped on here in Bardstown, but it don’t count when you’re underneath a deformation band that throws down a fast 3-6″ and it’s GONE within another 2-3 hours. I’m like Schroeder and Bus, etc…we just don’t get the “big ones” like we used to way back when! I recall when it would snow overnight and wake up listening to our local radio station to see if Nelson Co. schools would be closed…(they were always the LAST to report!), and I also remember it snowing like crazy during the DAYTIME and how the sky would be all purply-blue…snow coming down like CRAZY!!! Memories….

  6. MarkLex says:

    OMG worst trouble trying to get this site to load today from firefox and chrome both taking me to adobe flash’s website.

    • Andy Rose says:

      I don’t think its the browsers

    • MarkS says:

      It is one of the ads redirecting you.

    • Schroeder says:

      I get that too. Just started. I have to restart my computer ( brother’s computer) and it goes back to normal operation.

    • Bus Haynes says:

      Don’t click on that. Adobe Flash Player has a Trojan Horse connected to it. It did for me one time.

      • Bob says:

        It’s not Adobe. It’s a virus supposed to look like a “safety” download. You can’t click on it because it’s malicious and needs to be addressed or I’m not coming back to this site.

        On android it’s a similar type thing but a different program. That’s how I know it has nothing to do with Adobe. Don’t click any links on here especially if there is no way to click off or close them.

        Get this fixed, Chris.

    • Mike says:

      MarkLex – Same problem for me on two different computers. One of the two is very high end top of the line… (The one at work!) Something is going on with the Flash thing…

      • Bob says:

        It’s not Adobe. It’s a virus supposed to look like a “safety” download. You can’t click on it because it’s malicious and needs to be addressed or I’m not coming back to this site.

        On android it’s a similar type thing but a different program. That’s how I know it has nothing to do with Adobe. Don’t click any links on here especially if there is no way to click off or close them.

        Get this fixed, Chris.

    • Debbie says:

      Mine was doing it also, MarkLex..

  7. Mark says:

    This is going to be yet another overhyped, non-event. A few areas of SE KY may squeeze out an inch (higher elevations a possible 2 incher), but temps are marginal for much sticking of the snow.

    On another note, December is off to a warm start. Through the first 8 days of the month, Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green are averaging 3 to 4 degrees above normal. Today’s high near 60 will be offset by tomorrow’s 30’s, but the extended looks about average to maybe slightly below average for temperatures. So much for the cold and snowy December, thus far (yes, that can change before the month is over). It’s only fair to mention that the model ensemble forecasts weren’t so good for the first week of December. Maybe we can quit giving so much credence to ensemble forecasts?

  8. jackson says:

    I’ve gotta drive from Pikevile to Lexington Wednesday morning to catch a flight so I would be just fine if this one doesn’t pan out.

  9. Jimbo says:

    According to NWS. my area of the Huntington/ tri-state is in the 0 to .5 inch. I never expected anything anyway. Too warm as usual and what little cold will arrive too late. Good luck Terry, your chances look a little better. But enjoy it fast before the warm air rushes back in.

    • Melva says:

      Yep. Local Mets giving 0-coating for our area. I always try not to get my hopes up but sometimes can’t help it. Feeling a bit sad about missing out on another snow again! 🙁

      • Terry says:

        You may not even be missing out just yet, or I should clarify not the only area. It is very up in the air if even the higher elevations down my way will get much. Another subtropical day in the 60s in Harlan. Sigh!

        • Melva says:

          I’m huntington area and the local Mets have already said we aren’t getting much. They don’t mess around with the models, they usually wait to close to time and shoot it to you straight. Less fun though!

          This blog is fun to follow but I’ve found the last year or so especially our local Mets usually nail weather for us pretty good. We never have much snow anymore.

          This blog is for KY but i still get a kick out of following it because it’s exciting to track possibilities.

    • Terry says:

      Oh, if we could only relive the winter of 1996 again! No, I am sure it was nothing like the 70s and before for you old folks on here, but in my lifetime, it was awesome! I was 13 years old and tracked every snow. Yes, I was and still am a weather nut through and through:() We had so many snows that year, I think it was around 21 events, granted some small ones too but a ton of clippers. Those clippers unlike this crap these days, sometimes put down a good 3 to 6 inches! We also had a few big southern stream events too, with the Vlizzard of 96 giving Harlan a foot that year. I loved that winter…EPIC in my lifetime and very cold overall from November through April!

  10. Schroeder says:

    That’s true Jimbo the cold doesn’t stay like it use to.

  11. Rickie H says:

    I sent out a message earlier but the post never did receive it I guess. But I had a memory picture came up on my Facebook, one year ago today it was peppering the snow, big wet flakes it was of my back deck we had 4 inches and it’s still snowing hard the temperature had dropped and we receive more , I’m thinking may be about 5 or a little over 5 inches at that time. But one year ago today. I just thought that was Crazy being that they are giving snow for us for tomorrow night. Same scenario warm, rainy, then it started snowing and the temperature started dropping ended up with a little over 5 inches.

  12. SkiWi says:

    40s and 50s all the way through Christmas. Does anybody remember when it used to snow on or around Christmas. Heck these days, snow at all. What a wacky climate we are in.

    • Terry says:

      What an awful climate you mean. LOL….I am growing palm trees here. Barely covered them last year about 12 days I believe. Palms in SE KY….highly doubt these would have survived 20 plus years ago when I was growing up. Yes, in the ground! Trachycarpus Fortunei (Windmill Palm) and Needle Palm.

  13. Bus Haynes says:

    I was reading the Pikeville Ky. forecast from the National Weather Service and it has Pikeville in an inch or less and the Kentucky Virginia Border 1 to 3 inches. Black Mountain would probably get a little more they said.

    • Terry says:

      Unfortunately, Black Mt is 4,000ft up while Harlan where I live is a little under 1,200ft in elevation. That mountain still gets snow, less than years ago of course, but still some good accumulation
      at times. But, I am about 25 miles away and the roads are terrible to try and drive just to see a good snow from where I live. Pine Mt gets some too but near as much as Black.

      • Jimbo says:

        Winter of 96 was epic in my area too, 106 inches of snow. Probably never see another one like that. Especially considering what our Winter pattern has deteriorated to. Where we struggle to get a trace to an inch. Honorable mentions to Winters of 77, 78 and 94.

  14. BengalFan says:

    Models continue to be Fake news! Two weeks ago the firsts week of dec was supposed to be real cold, this past weekend this week was supposed to be polar vortex….you can’t debate what was said..looking at the next 7 days no polar vortex mostly 40’s!!!
    Yeah I know snow is hard to predict…but the cold..it’s just not coming yet

    • BengalFan says:

      Btw, it’s been a awful year for bengals fans, please winter be cold and snowy!!!! Not 40’s and rain

    • Melva says:

      Any time models are posted days away from an event that they should be taken with a grain of salt. We all know more than likely they’re wrong and they are super fun to track. Any time models show tons of snow we know not to believe in it.. but can’t help getting hopeful!!!!! Haha!

  15. Rolo says:

    We need a temp map Bailey boy!!!! Pull tbevtrigger!!!

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