Super Active Pattern Continues

Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling into a pattern that looks all too familiar to those of us in Kentucky and surrounding states. We are coming out of the wettest decade on record and the new decade is starting out with more of the same. The setup ahead of us is going to dump a lot of rain around here and it’s pretty concerning to see the numbers on the forecast models.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Skies become partly sunny with temps bouncing into the 40s.

Temps are back into the 40s on Monday as clouds increase during the afternoon and evening. These clouds are ahead of a fast-moving system that rolls through here Monday night and Tuesday,bringing rain and some snow…


GFSSome light accumulations are possible just north and west of the track of the low.

Once this goes through, things really become active as a deep trough takes up residence across the western part of the country and a ridge springs along the east coast. This puts our region in a strong southwest flow with several storm systems riding across the region from late next week into early the following week, at least. The end result is a lot of rain for a lot of people…

That’s likely to come from two separate storm systems…

I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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23 Responses to Super Active Pattern Continues

  1. Terry says:

    Well, I received a nice sugar coat and came up with 1/8 inch. I had to measure the snow before dawn as it is melting even at night due to such a long period of above freezing temps day and night. If much colder, a set-up like yesterday probably could had given me up to an inch, but the on and off snow showers were also mixed with plain rain and sleet. I say the high mts got an inch, however. I lucked up to get the sugar coat, lol. I say Tuesday is all rain for Harlan except high up as I am south of the low.

    • Jimbo says:

      I did receive a 15 minutes of a snow shower last night around 11, but nothing stuck. If I hadn’t took my dog out I would have missed it. Glad you at least got a brief coating Terry.

  2. Marsha says:

    Chris what happen to all the cold and snow that was going to take over the patten looking like no one can predict this crazy weather

  3. TennMark says:

    Thanks, Chris!

    One of our neighbors said they discovered a few slug trails on their backyard patio. In January!

    As Mr Bailey touched on, the upcoming very heavy rains are enough of a concern. However, the SPC is already indicating some chances of severe weather towards the end of the week. At this time, it’s expected to p*a*s*s to the south of KY and most of TN although it’s of course very early so stay tuned…

    • Bobt says:

      I had slugs trying to get to the dog food last week. They have disappeared again, but odd that I hadn’t seen them since the Nov. Cold spell and they felt it was warm enough to come out of hibernation for a feeding.

  4. Bjenks says:


    I can predict our KY weather from Dec-March.
    Warm and Wet……Dec-Jan
    Cold and dry……Late Jan-Feb
    One big snow to make a mess of all…March

    Long range models calling for warmer than normal through Jan…our Seasons in this region have changed to Summer six months Starting May and FallWinSpring from Nov-April.
    Two seasons is all we need.

    Hope we get some cold in Feb with a few snow storms,

  5. Rodger Dodger says:

    Jan 5th and no cold or snow in sight. In less than four weeks, it will be Feb 1st when Mr Bailey starts rooting for spring temps. The winter that wasn’t 🙁 This is Rodger in Dodger

  6. Jen says:

    I thought we were going to have some snow this winter! Looks like another bust! I will just keep on hoping.

  7. Mike says:

    Last winter never really started. This winter feels the same. I don’t know if my part of Richmond has been below 20 or had temperatures drop below freezing for more than three days in a row all winter….. Felt like this last year.

    Although – the inch or two of November snow was more than I saw all of last year… Strange…

  8. BlizzardTim says:

    The south east ridge is feeling like a de-ja-vu winter from last year ‍♂️‍♂️ ..ugh!! Was hoping it would be a bit different this year I guess we shall see how February and March turn out but by March I’m ready for summer!!

  9. Troy says:

    In an attempt to be the voice of reason (since there is none here considering winter just started with all the complaining), I’ll just say hold out a bit….most of you will see a decent snowfall in the next 3 months.

    • Bjenks says:


      I am generally optimistic with our snow chances, but I am becoming causiously optimistic being there is no cold air in sight for the eastern half of the U.S.A. for at least three weeks. The only thing we have going for us is that we are heading into the coldest part of winter and if we continue to get the rain train we could end up with several icy messes through our region. I still believe we get our snow and cold, but Mother Nature may have other plans,

  10. Joyce says:

    No snow at all this winter.

  11. Bobt says:

    Looks like we will get halfway through meteorological winter without even a dusting of snow for many. I know we have had some big snows in March and April, but we start fighting temps in mid-February down here in the southern half of the state. Average temps go above 50 degree mark for highs in mid-February. The current timeframe is historically the coldest portion of Kentucky winter’s. Those March and April snows are short-lived events..

    • Terry says:

      If you only average back to the 2000s when these crappy winters started about 20 years ago, the average highs for December and January are right around 50 now. They have used the same average all of my life with Harlan at 45 for an average high now but most days anymore get higher than this.

  12. Ricvice says:

    As my ol Grandmaw used to say a long time ago the reason for the change in the weather ( or anything else for that matter) was the explosion of the “A” bomb. Sounds just as plausible as anything else at this point.

  13. Jimbo says:

    I don’t know how anyone could find any optimism in the current Winter pattern or the upcoming one for the next month. It’s the same one for the past 3 years. You can ignore it, pretend it doesn’t exist or complain about it. I think most of us complain out of frustration and being powerless to change it.

    • Bjenks says:

      Isn’t that the truth.

    • Terry says:


      People on here like us that love snow are complaining as we aren’t even seeing little snows with regular frequency (that we are used to seeing and is at least NORMAL). Then, you have those that come on here who complain about us complaining, LOL….MORE COMPLAINTS!

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