Watching The Wednesday Potential

Good Monday, everyone. Our week is starting with a quick-hitting band of light rain across the south, but it’s all eyes on a couple of other systems later this week. The first one tries its very best to bring some snow into the region on Wednesday, but it’s climbing a pretty steep mountain in doing so.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about the early day showers across the south. This action zips through pretty quickly, but a fair amount of clouds remain across the region. Temps will be near normal.

Here are your Monday radars…

Colder winds blow for Tuesday and, with low-level moisture around, I can’t rule out a few flurries or a snow shower.

The system coming in for Wednesday will likely diminish quickly as it moves into our region. That said, we do find a some model support for this to get a little farther east before it does so. Tha NAM is the biggest fan of some Kentucky snows…

The NAM really isn’t that trustworthy until within 48 hours, so let’s see if its onto something or just on something. It does have some support from the ICON…

The GFS wants no part in this scenario as it weakens this system before it can do much around here…

The Canadian strings this out more, leaving a piece behind to follow up for Thursday and Friday…

The models continue to vary greatly with the weekend setup. The GFS has several different systems instead of one main low…

The Canadian is showing more of a northern stream system diving in, keeping any southern low kinda squashed…

Whatever happens with that system, it will be followed by a BRIEF milder surge a few days later. But, that milder surge looks to be ahead of real winter. That’s if we are to believe most of the Ensembles and operational models. The GFS Ensembles snowfall for the next 2 weeks…

Prove it, Ensembles!! 🙂

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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14 Responses to Watching The Wednesday Potential

  1. Terry says:

    Geeze that is mess of a model forecast. Instead of 16 candles, the GFS has 16 low pressures for this weekend. The other models are also confused. 😛

    • Jimbo says:

      The models might be disagreeing on strength and direction but I am pretty sure they will all settle on one thing……rain. And they are probably all already on board with another warm surge.

      • Terry says:

        Raining here right now, but this was predicted and models are very accurate in 2020 on rainfall, even if sometimes more is predicted than reality…sometimes less too than reality.

        I so wish models were even 50% correct on snowfall forecasts but everything in the world tends to go wrong, whether 5 days or 5 hours out and are around 5 % (less?) accurate for snow it seems. 😛

        I still like where the pattern is trying to go for the next couple of weeks or so but can we actually get to cash in finally and get at least some snow in February??

        • Schroeder says:

          Terry and Jimbo, I was looking at the Vintusky weather site this morning and located the ” Polar Low ” just to the northeast of Norway. I also located a large anticyclonic system over Canada and the strong westerlies aloft is reacting with the ” Polar Low ” to the east and as a result making the Low extremely strong and really ” wound up. ” When all of these systems weaken the AO and NAO will go negative and the ” window to the Arctic ” will be wide open and all that frigid air will drop south into the US. Just hope we have an active Subtropical Jet to phase with Polar Jet to finally end this snow drought.

          • Schroeder says:

            Alert spelling error Ventusky.

            • Bobt says:

              That air needs to eventually drop down for spring time temps to settle in. Hopefully it will get in here and out by February. I wouldn’t mind one decent snow, but we are closing in on the end of winter . Only 5 weeks left of Meteorological winter. I personally love spring weather and everything coming alive again.

  2. Marsha says:

    Don’t believe it I’v hear this all winter

  3. Bjenks says:

    Yeah, GFS Ensembles, prove it. As much as I want A healthy snowstorm, a part of me doesn’t. I am over this non Winter and I honestly believe the trends have been set and the rain train will carry on. Just not Kentucky’s Year for cold and snow and for that matter the last two for snow. Can’t trust any model more than a few days out and that will not change. Just throw them out and go back to the old school way of forecasting.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Snow ain’t looking good this winter. Three near nothing winters in a row…. that’s wild. Anybody notice that usually when we get snow in October or November, we usually get wimpy snow winters?

    Kind of like when going fishing and catch one within a minute, and then nothing for hours after that. Irony.

    • Schroeder says:

      Happens to me every time I go fishing. LOL

      • Debbie says:

        Me three, Schroeder….or the nibbling little turtles that make you think you’ve got a biggin’ only to hang you up in brush/moss, or chew your line in two….lol!

        • Schroeder says:

          Debbie, I caught a snapping turtle last time I went fishing. The turtle was huge and when I got the turtle on the bank the hook release and the turtle came after me. I got all my fishing equipment and ran up the hill and went home. A fun day of fishing. LOL

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