Northwesterly Flow Becoming Established

Good Thursday to everyone and a big hello to November. The eleventh month of the year is getting started off on a freezing note for much of the state with some of the coldest readings of fall, so far. Our overall weather pattern looks like it is locking into a northwesterly wind flow over the next week. What once looked like a decent mild up to start the weekend is wimping out before our very eyes.

There is even a little bit of energy diving in here later tonight. The NAM is spitting out a few showers and even some mountain flurries by Friday morning. That is a fast moving system that scoots quickly and leaves us with partly sunny skies and temps hitting the upper 40s and low 50s.

The next system rolling in this weekend looks to arrive on the scene by Saturday. Scattered showers look to break out from west to east by the afternoon…

 

That little system will be working with one heck of a temperature gradient. Check out the 30 degree temp swing across the state on Saturday…

NAM

GFS

The colder temps to the north will win the battle and settle southward through the weekend into early next week. The jet stream will continue to take a dip across the eastern half of the country as little disturbances drop in from the northwest. The GFS shows this well…

It’s not out of the question that one of those impulses turns into something a little bigger. As is, periodic clouds with chilly rain or snow showers would be possible late weekend and early next week.

I have to say this pattern is impressing me. When you get such an anomalous storm like we just had with Sandy, the pattern normally snaps back to normal or above this time of year. That just is not happening and could be a sure fire sign old man winter isn’t playing around this year.

Are we done with mild temps? No. I’m watching the end of next week into the following weekend for a massive plains storm to crank up. This could put warm us up for a few days and even throw a strong storm potential our way. Many of the models are honing in on this…

GFS 

 There is a ton of cold air across Canada that is just waiting for something to unleash it into the lower 48. Things may very well turn wintry after that storm blows through. Not that we haven’t seen wintry already. ;)

Have a great Thursday and take care.


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9 Responses to Northwesterly Flow Becoming Established

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Freeze warning for 43 degrees lol awesome
    …FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY…

    A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY.

    * TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER 3
    AM EDT…AND SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM EDT.

    * LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN WILL AVERAGE IN THE 27 TO 32 DEGREE
    RANGE.
    Mother nature didn’t get the memo lol

    • jeanette says:

      It was accurate here just outside of Louisville. 28 degrees here. :)

      • Andy Rose says:

        yeah glad your office got it right JKL busted everywhere. The only place at freezing according to mesonet was Pike county on our side of the map

    • Chris Mercer says:

      The NWS offices always seem to clear out low-level clouds too fast. It did fall from 41 to 32 in Lawrenceburg between 6 and 8 AM but was not the coldest temp of the season. We had a 29 in Early October.

  2. T says:

    I sure love wintery :-)

  3. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Well it is going to be a cold Trick or Treat tonight.I hope the Kids dress warm.

  4. Andy Rose says:

    another Nor’Easter eh well hopefully more than the mountains will get snow love out of this

  5. sue(flatwoods, KY) says:

    was nice to see the sun come out this afternoon, hadnt seen it since last Friday! Its been a constant rain or snow everyday!

  6. Thomas says:

    Got a question for winter this year. I live in Murray, KY and see predictors saying this winter will be like 76-77. I also see that the NAO will have a negative tilt and favor snow for central, nothern and eastern KY along with below average temps. Does this setup favor more snow for western KY as well or will we just see below average temps and not much in he way of more storm systems? Also with the jet stream dipping so low from our west and coming back up from the far east how does that impact the flow of the storm systems as well? Thanks for the replies in advance.

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