A Quick Word On Next Week

Good Tuesday evening everyone. The clouds are slowly clearing out across the state this evening and that sets the stage for a cold night ahead. Cold isn’t going to be mentioned much over the coming days as a warmer air mass floods in.

That looks to change up as we go into the middle of next week. The models continue to suggest a shorter period of mild air and have a nice looking cold front blasting through here by Tuesday Night. Here’s the latest GFS:

I mentioned in my last update, this trough is transient and the one coming in behind it should carve out a much deeper trough and unleash winter.

More on all that later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

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13 Responses to A Quick Word On Next Week

  1. WXman says:

    See, when I just went through the latest GFS runs I saw the opposite. There is no persistent cold showing up in the next two weeks at all. In fact, immediately following that front (pictured above) it shows highs in the 40s, and then highs back into the 50s a few days later. Winter is nowhere to be seen in any of the modeling or upper air charts yet. It’s depressing.. Sigh.. That big cutoff low south of Alaska is running the table.

    • MJ says:

      I agree here. The GFS weakens the AK low quite a bit next week which allows a deeper trough to develop and swing across the US. The GFS ensemble is not as deep with that trough and the Euro has a weaker trough. Given the persistence of that upper low feature over AK and the overall hemispheric pattern, I do not see how that AK low will weaken all that much as the GFS suggests. There are signals in the data that suggest the pattern may change dramatically around the 20th of December which could usher in a much colder/stormy pattern. However, that depends on if the upper low over AK weakens. If it stays or redevelops, then we’re more likely to remain mild.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        Fine by me. 60’s in December following a cooler than average autumn mean low utility bills and great running weather! I’m liking this mild December.

        • Kentuckylivin says:

          I’m with Chris on this one! I prefer a mild December and a snow January/February… and looking back, I feel that many of our worst winters – including the two worst winters for ice storms — ’03 and ’09 were proceeded by relatively mild November/December months. Not that this means anything this year because obviously Kentucky weather is about as unpredictable as it gets, but you can’t say that just because the weather looks mild for the next two weeks, the whole winter will be a bust.

    • BubbaG says:

      Let’s have you guys and CB arm wrestle for who is correct. We will use the cheesy music from the “great” arm wrestling movie “Over the Top”. ADRIANNNNN! Oops, wrong movie 🙂

      That said, we saw the same outlook for cold to settle in and kept getting pushed back until spring… Oh well, not long to see if same thing here. Computer models are getting to be as air-headed as the human ones. Zoolander comes to mind….

  2. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Appreciate your thoughts. Seems like there are differing opinions, tho. They are appreciated as well, but seem to want to discount what you say. Don’t appreciate what they seem to imply about things look to you. I Do, however appreciate that they are also involved, or have been, in weather. Their thoughts are interesting as well. A question though…is it taking a shot at you, or what?

    • Marsha says:

      I agree this is Chris blog I understand that they have there opinions but they need to start there own blogs Chris just know we all believe in you yes and we do know that you may be wrong at times but just do your best because your bloggers most of us are here for your thoughts guys don’t mean anything bad at you guys you just need to start your own blog….

    • MJ says:

      I think you are reading into this a little too much. My comment was not a pot shot to Chris. In the most simple terms, I have a different view on how the pattern may evolve and elected to share the opinion here.

  3. Tyler says:

    I feel so many people have opinions. There are many on the warmer rant and many on the colder rant! I also think that the above people that are differing from Chris shouldn’t take the GFS temps and run with them, is the GFS usually right from over a week out? NO!

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    As long as people do not become rude, what is the problem reading everybodys perspective about the upcoming weather. I am sure that Chris skin is not thin.

  5. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. This winter will be colder and snowier that last winter. All the signs are pointing to that. We just have to get through the late fall ups and downs.

    WXMAN and MJ have been visiting this blog as long as I have during the winter months and they give great insight to the weather along with Chris. Chris created this blog so he can give further insight to the weather than just a five day forecast and what it is doing right now as a TV Met. I am sure Chris welcomes the feedback and does not take offense to anyone that sees different from him.


  6. JJTeach says:

    I’m with ya Coffeelady…I’ve been reading the blog for several years now and there was a time when it was simply people sharing their opinions. Many still do just that and that’s great. However, I have too noticed that a few have taken it to a WHOLE new level. Who are they trying to impress?

    On a different note…can’t wait for the pattern change and all the snow and cold that comes with it. I don’t care when it comes…ill just be happy to see it when it gets here!!!

  7. Israel says:

    Hey Chris, hope you read this. I moved from Minneapolis, Minnesota. There are a couple of weather blogs like you but in that area. I was wondering if you interested in reading them for a month or so and see what they post. It can help you create better blogs for this area in Lexington. One of them is this http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/ they dont necisarily have specific times when they update it but you should check it out and maybe add more to your blog if you want to. this one updates once a day http://www.startribune.com/weather/blogs/Paul_Douglas_on_Weather.html

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