Springing Toward Winter

Good Sunday to one and all. December is off and running on a very mild note with temps in the 60s. Now some gusty showers join in on the fun and these showers will take us into early Monday. All of this is the start of a very active weather pattern that should start to turn wintry in about a week or so.

Showers will increase today from west to east and I can’t rule out a clap of thunder. These showers will be scattered and will carry us into early Monday.

A stout cold front will then sweep in here late Tuesday with widespread showers and gusty winds. You can see what I’m talking about on the GFS…

 That front will drop some decent rains and also cause a nice drop in temps into Wednesday.

Our pattern is kicking it up a notch as things become very active and that’s a sure sign of a major pattern change. That’s exactly what we have coming by next weekend into the following week. I’m seeing many national folks now picking up on this change and some are even highlighting the same December 7th-14th time frame I’ve yapped about since Thanksgiving.

The jet stream will undergo a major adjustment and that will send a deep trough into much of the country next weekend. Several areas of low pressure are likely to be working underneath this trough and that means the devil will be in the details with each system. The models will handle these storms very poorly as there is a lot going on. They will continue to show the much colder pattern, but don’t settle on any one solution of any storm until within 2 or 3 days.

The first system should roll in on Friday and I think this is a rain maker with colder air coming in behind it. The storm that follows is the one I’m keeping my eye on because there is a growing signal this one could be a big system. It will be all about the track with that one, but the Canadian Model shows something similar to what I would expect from this far out…

 The new European Model looks fairly similar to what the Canadian is showing.

The pattern for the second half of the month has the look of one that can produce some extreme wintry weather across the country. Only time will tell if we get in on the real nasty stuff.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.


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10 Responses to Springing Toward Winter

  1. MarkLex says:

    Well Chris – one thing’s for sure – Coming up soon is the best time for the pattern to change from what it has been. Once it changes, it seems to last a while. I mean, look how long it’s been dry. Possibly a GOOD thing that it has been dry the past few months (because that can’t last) What BETTER time for the pattern to change than the first or second week of Dec? So……..when the pattern changes, it will be stormy (more frequently) on and off. Hopefully that will last a few months :D I know there will be minor swings in patterns but overall it seems every three or four months it changes from one extreme to the other (give or take)

  2. BengalFan says:

    If the big change is coming, and a deep trough is going to dig down, then why are we talking about RAIN, and maybe possible wintry weather…If its a deep trough , then we should be talking about COLD AND SNOW….

    I hope your right, but time well tell…..CHEER ON DEC. 7th-14th.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      I see where Joe Bastardi is promoting a big cold and snow outbreak coming east this month too. We can only hope!

  3. Coffeady says:

    Sounds like a wild roller coaster rode coming up weather wise, Chris. Hope the cold gets here and hangs around for Christmas. Some snow wouldn’t hurts my feelings, either.

  4. rdavidponder2002 says:

    Going to Gatlinburgh for the weekend. Would love to see some snow.

  5. Dawnp007 says:

    Now we wait…….

  6. BubbaG says:

    It is pretty dire when I have more confidence in snow chances than I do the Cats doing well this season. Please keep in mind, everything is relative, so not a factor of high snow confidence.

    Miiiiiillllllerrrrrr! We need you! ;) :)

    • BubbaG says:

      BTW, for snow chances, we need the fence to settle in Tennessee. If not, you all know the drill.

    • MikeM says:

      Cats will do better next season because one and done does not apply to this class of freshman. I only hope Coach Cal hasn’t overrecruited for next year because the nest will still be full. And it doesnt matter where you put the fence, warm = wet, cold = dry.

  7. Andy Rose says:

    I still think its funny that the road crews pretreated knox county last week and i’m not talkin just a few roads but alot of them

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