The Models Are Slowly Coming Together

Good Wednesday to all my fellow weather weenies. Temps are finally getting closer to normal and that’s the first step in the overall transition toward winter. That process really kicks into high gear early next week and the models are getting all excited with what they’re showing. The overnight runs made a big winter splash over the next few weeks.

Temps today will range from the upper 40s to low 50s with a partly sunny sky for many. Early showers may be noted across the far southeast.

Thursday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps back into the same range for highs. The models are showing just a bit more moisture trying to sneak in by the end of the day and that could spit out a light shower at some point.

Showers increase on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. This front will put the brakes on and become stationary through the weekend. Ripples of low pressure will work along the front producing rounds of showers and some thunder. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

The models are starting to show something similar happening by late Sunday into Monday with a potent storm system coming together. This low pressure may track right on top of us early Monday en route to the Great Lakes. That setup is even being shown by the GFS…

Taken verbatim… the model shows a 20-30 degree temp drop Monday with rain switching to light snow and snow showers. The upper levels of the GFS even have the closed low idea we’ve talked about…

The GFS Ensemble Mean looks very similar…

 The Canadian Model has almost the exact same idea…

 The new European Model is in and looks VERY similar to the above maps for Sunday – Tuesday.

Something else is getting my attention beyond that storm. The setup toward the end of next week into the following week is one that should try to keep the storm track to our south. If these storms develop, they would have plenty of cold air available to tap. Again… that’s just something getting my attention right now.

Either way… the change toward winter happens next week.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the day and take care.


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37 Responses to The Models Are Slowly Coming Together

  1. jeanette says:

    Remember that big “YAAAAAAAAY!!!!!” that George Bailey screams when people finally recognize him in the movie ‘Its A Wonderful Life’?
    I just did that.

    :D

  2. Person says:

    Why is it that nobody is forecasting this to happen, but the models keep showing this over and over???

  3. bjenks says:

    I know Chris said yesterday that he does not read other Mets. information and I understand that completely. If I was putting out forecast long and short I would want to use my professional exp. and not others. We as followers of CB trust his word, but we also (at least I do) look into other forecast to compare. I am reading that the change for winter might come a little later than CB is expecting for the Eastern half of the country. Although we do have lots of rain in our forecast over the next week we might not have the cold needed to make it snow. Could be after Xmas that we see winter weather. Oh well….Any snow in Dec is a bonus for us. Just would like to see a full three months of winter and not just a month and a half.

    Thanks CB and have a great day….

    • Joey Wilson says:

      The National Weather Service usually won’t go out on a limb a week or more away. Chris, however, is free to do that based on the long-range models. Let’s hope Chris is right about a big pattern change.

  4. Tyler says:

    the weather channel is on board with winter coming in next week!

    • Alloy20 says:

      Ugggh – if TWC is calling for winter coming to KY, we can expect the opposite to happen.

      • Lincoln says:

        You are exactly right.

        • Tyler says:

          not hardly guys….they aren’t great, but they usually get the pattern right!

          • Lincoln says:

            I wish I could agree unfortunately, TWC has a rep of switching their forecast at the last minute etc. I am not a fan, they do get their temperatures right though. But to each his own. P.s. it isn’t difficult to spot a pattern change that will affect the entire U.S. ;)

            • Alloy20 says:

              Agree 100%. Unless it is a locked in pattern, just watch their forecast change (sometimes significantly) 48 hours or less out for a specific area. General pattern changes they are good at, but most of us that work outside for a living do NOT rely on their forecasts for any kind of planning or scheduling.

            • Tyler says:

              p.s. I’ve been watching their forecast for the last month. They have been spot on!

  5. Cameron Fry says:

    Thank you, CB! Appreciate the update. Things lookin’ better today from what it sounds like…

  6. When December draws to an end,the global warmers will have a tough sell,But will 180 and Then say look what We’ve done! our measley power has no power versus the Almighty Power of Nature

  7. The Juggernaut says:

    Still no Winter forecast from CB?

  8. BengalFan says:

    My hand is raised, waiting patiently to be called upon….”Yes Mr. BengalFan”…Ok, I have seen where Mr. Bailey states: ” the change toward winter happens next week” …… Winter to me means good chance of cold rain, highs 40-45 , lows in the 20′s at night. Is this what we going to get, if so, who cares!!!!!!
    I hope Mr. Bailey is talking about highs 28, lows 15 and SNOW! If so, everybody cares!!!!!!!
    One more Question: “WHO-DEY” I hope this sunday we can say”How bout the Bengals” after we beat the Cowboys.

  9. Russ says:

    Sorry, I cannot buy into the hype. It’s the same junk that happened last year-winter was always 7 to 10 days away. I thought the this past cold front was supposed to usher in changes. I don’t consider it dramatic unless you consider going from 70′s to mid 50′s a big change by December standards. I’d call that going from extreme warmth to seasonably warm. As I’ve been saying for the past several years, the big ticket weather events in Kentucky are now Severe WX/Tornadic outbreaks. Winter is a thing of the past,unless you like prolonged warm spells and “false alarm” model runs. I guess we can throw in the occasional ankle biter in January.

  10. Russ says:

    And no knock on CB intended. CB was awesome during last March’s epic tornado outbreak. And Bailey has hit above average in previous winters, but last Winter was dismal, and there is nothing to suggest that this year will be any different.

    • Tyler says:

      actually being 13-18 degrees above normal is quite a difference. Obviously no one expects a cold front to come through and usher in arctic air when you’re in the 60′s and high 60′s at points. we have to return to normal before you can expect such a dramatic temp change. its amazing to me that one bad winter can put such a sour taste in so many mouths!

      • Tyler says:

        also 50′s are not seasonably warm for december, they’re just normal!

      • Russ says:

        Because this was the same deal as last year. And, now the latest thinking is that the cold weather may hold off until late month (according to other sources).

        • tornadolarkin says:

          This isn’t the same. It’s called forecasting. Try doing it before you bash anyone about it. It’s rather difficult. This winter is significantly different set up thatn last winter too.

  11. Teach says:

    Just my 2 cents. For several days now CB has stated that the period from December 7-14 will start the pattern for winter. Last time I checked, that is 2 days away and start to winter does not mean 20 degrees with 18 Inches of snow on the ground. Even in the old schools winters that I grew up with, it was January and February when they came. Quit reading what you want to hear in the posts. Enjoy the ride, we’ve got a long way to go.

  12. MarkLex says:

    Sheeesssshh!

    Reading through some of these comments really annoys me sometimes :(

  13. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Whatever happens, happens, and I’m ok with it. :)

  14. Ready4Snow says:

    Its called a step down process..Give it time folks,relax…Do some people actually think we are suppose to have temps in the single digits with 40 inches of snow on the ground all winter…Growing up in ky you should know better…I guess its that time of the year when you could call it “The annual weenie meltdown” with some of these posts…

  15. Danny says:

    Whoever thinks this winter will be similiar to last winter is already dead wrong October and November were already colder this year than last. Its virtually impossible to have a winter like last year its was warm and basically snowless. The pattern this year is completely opposite than last year it will snow it will get cold the pattern supoorts it. If your looking for 40 to 50 inches of snow your in the wrong area head north and east. This is Kentucky not the Great Lakes were not in a snow belt region.

  16. Todd says:

    Even in the epic late 70s winters not much snow fell until after christmas, yes we had colder temps in those winters but the good stuff did not get here until Jan/Feb. Schools were closed for 6 weeks straight in Frankfort in JAN THRU FEB in 1977!

  17. Meche says:

    This teacher, who happens to be a snow-lover, is crossing her fingers for some snow!!!

  18. deedlegirl says:

    I predict a T-Shirt….. I’m A Chris Bailey “Weather Weenie”

    • BubbaG says:

      Last winter would have been a Lucy and Charlie Brown Football T-Shirt.

      -Lucy was the models
      -The football was the big snow
      -Charlie Brown was us and CB
      -The big kick and miss was our hope and the result

  19. cjmajorgal says:

    Chris Bailey is THE best weather forcaster in the state of Kentucky! I wish people would just let the man do what he does best. He was a LIFESAVER during the March 2012 Tornado, and he has my respect always!
    I want one of those t-shirts-”I’m A Chris Bailey Weather Weenie” lol :)

  20. BubbaG says:

    Can’t we all just get along??
    Activate fake tears- now!

  21. JJTeach says:

    Dear forecast models:

    Keep trending colder and colder for next week’s storm and all the storms after that. Lets get winter off and rocking!

    Sincerely,
    A school teacher that is ready for a break

  22. Coffeady says:

    Chris, thanks for everything you do. If I don’t get my weather forecast from the blog, I get it from WKYT.

  23. Coffeady says:

    Can anyone tell me why only two sentences of what I wrote is all that shows up?

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