Good Wednesday to all my fellow weather weenies. Temps are finally getting closer to normal and that’s the first step in the overall transition toward winter. That process really kicks into high gear early next week and the models are getting all excited with what they’re showing. The overnight runs made a big winter splash over the next few weeks.

Temps today will range from the upper 40s to low 50s with a partly sunny sky for many. Early showers may be noted across the far southeast.

Thursday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps back into the same range for highs. The models are showing just a bit more moisture trying to sneak in by the end of the day and that could spit out a light shower at some point.

Showers increase on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. This front will put the brakes on and become stationary through the weekend. Ripples of low pressure will work along the front producing rounds of showers and some thunder. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

The models are starting to show something similar happening by late Sunday into Monday with a potent storm system coming together. This low pressure may track right on top of us early Monday en route to the Great Lakes. That setup is even being shown by the GFS…

Taken verbatim… the model shows a 20-30 degree temp drop Monday with rain switching to light snow and snow showers. The upper levels of the GFS even have the closed low idea we’ve talked about…

The GFS Ensemble Mean looks very similar…

 The Canadian Model has almost the exact same idea…

 The new European Model is in and looks VERY similar to the above maps for Sunday – Tuesday.

Something else is getting my attention beyond that storm. The setup toward the end of next week into the following week is one that should try to keep the storm track to our south. If these storms develop, they would have plenty of cold air available to tap. Again… that’s just something getting my attention right now.

Either way… the change toward winter happens next week.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the day and take care.