Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good Wednesday evening. Your friendly weatherdude is in the middle of a busy, busy day so I’m going to keep this update short and to the point. I have absolutely ZERO changes to the thoughts I’ve put forth on here for the past two weeks. The change toward winter happens during the December 7th-14th time frame.

The general forecast for this weekend and early next week looks to be playing out according to plan.  A stalled out front means rounds of showers and some thunder from Thursday night through Sunday. Waves of low pressure working across the region will mean some heavy downpours.

The last in the series of lows is the one that strengthens and works northward into the Ohio Valley. This will deepen along the way and will likely give us a day of wild weather Monday. (Gulp) I actually like what the GFS is doing with this storm…

The European Model is very similar…

What does all that mean? From 5 days away, some early thoughts:

- Showers and thunderstorms will be cranking Sunday night ahead of our cold front moving in from the west.

- Temps in the wee hours of Monday may be near 60 degrees. Temps will drop into the 30s from west to east by late morning and early afternoon. Readings will hit the upper 20s during the evening.

- As the cold air sweeps in, rain will likely change over to a period of light snow and snow showers. Snow showers and flurries could continue into Monday night and Tuesday morning.

- A passing flurry is possible Tuesday with temps in the 30s.

- Winds during this whole time will really gust up and could 30mph.

Again… that’s a breakdown from 5 days away so I expect some typical timing issues. I am VERY confident of the big blast of cold and will iron out the final details of rain and snow showers as we get closer.

Do much update. :) Have a great evening and take care.


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15 Responses to Wednesday Evening Thoughts

  1. TONEY says:

    on a non weather related note, how come the time is always an hour faster on your blog than it is on my computer……did u forget to set your time back on your blog? just wondering…..

  2. Vinny says:

    It’s not even winter yet and the haters are spouting…

    I miss the old days, when this blog was FUN, we shared stories, recipes and the occasional parody songs…
    Keep up the good work CB, the original 12 still love ya….

    Hey Bengals Fan, GO STEELERS…! lol

    • Bengalfan says:

      Big game in almost two weeks steelers fan…I hope it will be great weather for that game though,,cold and snow would favor steelers,,,but hey jack, if bengals can win it will make me happy happy happy

    • Marsha says:

      Vinny so do I that’s why I don’t comment much anymore I wish we could get the old blog back….

      • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

        I have been reading this blog for over three years and have found that the vast majority of the people that comment are responsible. I am sure from time to time you can find that a few individuals go over the line. I look forward to reading everybody’s opinion, including the ones that might be out in the weeds. Lets have some fun and stop being so sensitive. See I responded to your comment without making it personal.

    • SUSAN says:

      where is that “like” button Vinny??????

    • MikeM says:

      Vinny Lives. :)

  3. Dawnp007 says:

    Just done a little jig!!!!

  4. WXman says:

    Just my opinion.. but GFS has been consistent in bringing a 140 knot jet streak into the MS Valley to help drive the storm system moving through late this weekend. With upper dynamics that strong, you would have to think that we’ll see some healthy storms even though the timing is awful. Probably below severe limits…but still noteworthy for December.

    Farther down the road, I hope that Chris is right and the models are not accurately forecasting how deep the troughing is going to get…because right now it looks like a whole bunch of days with highs above freezing. Not much different than what we’ve got. But I do agree that the dam is going to break and the cold is coming.. I personally just don’t think it’s coming before Christmas. But it’s coming.

    • Mark says:

      Looks like this will not be like late December 1989 with the brutal sub-zero cold. I was only about six years old (in east Tennessee), but I vaguely recall the Arctic conditions that Christmas. One of my aunts had to move a small indoor plant from a house being sold. Despite the plant being wrapped and kept in the warm car, the few seconds in the frigid cold was still enough to make the plant go belly-up!

      But as CB and others have said, there remains a tremendous amount of extreme cold and above-average snowpack in Alaska and Canada. This begs the question how much of this cold will be get this winter.

  5. BubbaG says:

    I buy CB’s outlook since fits our fence formula:

    Total system winter result = > than 32 mainly rain, <32 nominally snow

  6. Endleswavz says:

    I’m fairly certain that my Elf on the Shelf just moved on its own?!? Weird.

  7. Marsha says:

    TC on wsaz is on the cold and snow train I just hope they are right don’t liked this warm weather need some snow…..

  8. Thomas says:

    Great stuff Chris. I live in Western North Carolina but I like the way you Handle the weather and different pattern. I like the no hype type of stuff and you usually do a great job. Keep up the great work!

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