Tuesday Evening Thoughts

Good Tuesday evening. We’re slowly clearing things out across central and eastern Kentucky this evening. Our day was filled with clouds, stray flurries and temps barely getting above freezing. The weather over the next few days still looks very good, but my attention is firmly focused on the weekend and next week.

We have one system moving in this weekend that will bring rain to our region. Temps will also drop behind this area of low pressure working through the region.

That sets the stage for a bigger storm to form early next week to our southwest. There continues to be a huge signal for this event and the models are getting on board. Check out the last 3 runs of the GFS for next Tuesday…

6z

12z

18z

That’s a week from right now and you can’t look at placement and precipitation because that will change with each run of every model. The point there is a storm on the models and the overall pattern favors a significant winter storm developing during this time. What, if any, impact it has on our weather remains to be seen. This is just further illustration of how much the pattern has changed.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.


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18 Responses to Tuesday Evening Thoughts

  1. Chris Mercer says:

    Official NWS “point” forecast shows a low of 24 at as close as I can estimate to my house in Lawrenceburg. Here at 8:00 temp is already 24.8. Who wants to bet that temp forecast is a “bust” on the high side?

  2. BubbaG says:

    That seems cold compared to Lexington and Richmond is about 32 right now. Are you sure? There was not supposed to be that kind of gradient in KY, yet alone just 50 miles as the crow flies.

  3. Chris Mercer says:

    Bubba–my thermometer almost always runs within a degree of Frankfort and/or Lexington. Noticed Frankfort was 27 and Lexington 28 as of 8:00. Mine is at 24.8 and holding. Usually a degree or two warmer than Frankfort and a degree or so colder than Lexington on a clear, calm night. I don’t have any reason to doubt the 24.8 given previous experience.

  4. Chris Mercer says:

    As always, time will tell. But I bet I wake up to less than 24, as does Frankfort and possibly Lexington.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      By the way, Lexington’s official low temperature forecast is 27 and it is currently 28 at the airport. Are we supposed to get Warm Air Advection or a southerly wind that will stop radiational cooling? I think the NWS is too high on temps for tonight.

      • BubbaG says:

        It is 28 now for us. Big drop in an hour.

        • Chris Mercer says:

          Dropped from 24.8 to 24.1 here between 8:00 and 9:00. Still bet it drops at least one or two more degrees between now and sunrise. Wouldn’t be surprised though to see a 19 or 20. 22 is the coldest so far this season and that was almost a month ago.

  5. Coffeady says:

    Well it was a balmy 32 when I got home at about 6:15. Right now the temp on my back deck is 29. I am in Sonerset.

  6. Dale says:

    It is 30.2 at Dorton in Pike County.

  7. sue(flatwoods,ky) says:

    our high today was 35 deg, we had a few flurries flying earlier today! It is currently 31 deg at 8:35pm.

  8. Emerson Biggins says:

    It’s going to happen, next week, big storm, 6+ inches for evryone in state! It’s going to happen. POWER OF POSITIVITY, everyone get on board, no Debbie Downers or Negative Nancy’s. No matter what each run of the models do, stay positive, keep the faith, IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN!

  9. Mike says:

    A cudly 70 in my living room.

  10. Jeff Hamlin says:

    27 right now at Stuart Powell Field in Boyle County.

  11. BubbaG says:

    If an event does happen and the words “wintry mix” are in CB’s call at all, we know the answer to that. Rinse and repeat since we would be the fence- as usual.

  12. Misty says:

    Well I just looked at TWC and they’re forecasting 60% chance of rain/snow on Wednesday of next week with a High of 46 and low 29. Hmmm…Their forecast map for Dec 19th has a big portion of the state shaded in for snow, or rain/snow mix. *crossing my fingers on this one!*

  13. Gayle smith says:

    Let it snow baby!

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